Bridge

An office manager who plays at my club asked if I knew much about probabilities.

"All I know," he said, "is that the chance my alarm won't go off is proportional to the importance of my 8 a.m. meeting." My friend was declarer at 6NT, and West led the queen of diamonds. South counted 11 tricks. For one more, he could try for a second heart trick, a fourth spade, or even for a 3-3 split in diamonds.

"I took the king of diamonds and led a heart to my ten," South said. "That lost to the jack, and I wound up going down." NINE OF SPADES

If I do a column about probabilities, it's probable that some mathematician will write in to correct my figures. But I think South should win the first diamond with the ace and take the A-K of spades. When West's ten falls, South forces out East's jack to establish the nine.

Even if East-West followed low to the A-K of spades, South would continue spades. He would win four spade tricks about 75 percent of the time. His actual play was worse.

DAILY QUESTION

You hold: S None H A 6 3 D K 8 7 6 2 C Q 10 8 5 4. Your partner opens one spade, you bid 1NT and he rebids three spades. The opponents pass. What do you say?

ANSWER: Your decision is close. Partner will typically have 16 or 17 high-card points and a six-card suit. I'd try 3NT. If he has suitable side values -- a hand such as A K 10 9 6 4, K 7 5, A Q 3, 6 -- nine tricks at notrump are likely. But if his spades aren't robust, four spades may fail.

South dealer

N-S vulnerable

NORTH

S None