Arlington tax bill may grow heftier

Service cuts sought to help fix predicted gap of over $80 million

Arlington County residents and employees should prepare for significant changes in services and programs as well as a tax increase as the county tries to close a potential budget gap caused by the economy, officials say.

The five-member County Board directed finance staff members last week to prepare a budget that raises taxes and cuts expenses and services in equal measure to close a budget gap estimated at between $80 million and $100 million for fiscal 2011. But the board also used extra money left over from 2009 to increase county employees' pay.

"The scale of the numbers we're looking at here is unprecedented," said Mark Schwartz, the county's chief financial officer. "It's going to be hard, but we feel fortunate because we feel like we're in a relatively strong position."

Schwartz said that it's too early to tell what services might be cut but that based on current estimates the average homeowner could see taxes increase $4 to $5 a month. The county might also look into laying off employees, ending county programs or cutting library hours.

"We're going to propose a budget that's going to make a lot of people very unhappy," Schwartz said.

An advocate's plea

The debate about where the service cuts will come from has already begun to heat up. At the Oct. 24 meeting, Erica Wood, head of the Arlington commission on long-term-care residences, urged the board to protect human services. She advocates on behalf of the county's elderly and disabled residents and works to enhance the services of the county's nursing homes, assisted living residences and senior residences.

"If you cut a service for older people or people with disabilities, they can't come forward themselves and complain," she said. "These are our most vulnerable individuals, and they can't take that kind of cut."

Wood represents one of dozens of interest groups that hope the cuts won't affect them.

Arlington's financial problems are similar to those in jurisdictions across the region. Loudoun County, for example, this month dipped into public school reserves to help fill a $28 million revenue shortfall. In Prince George's County, about 50 employees have been notified that they will be laid off, effective Nov. 1, as part of an effort to close a $22.7 million budget gap.

Harsh revenue drop?

The Arlington board approved the budget guidelines at its monthly meeting. For every dollar raised in taxes, it wants to see a dollar in services cut. Board members said they hope that this balanced approach will help the county maintain a $947 million budget for fiscal 2011. Its actions are the first of several that will affect the 2011 financial plan for the year that begins in June.

Officials said the county anticipates collecting up to $50 million less in revenue than in fiscal 2010 and is facing up to $50 million in additional county and school expenses. Schwartz said the budget gap will be clearer by late December or early January, when commercial and residential real estate assessments are completed.

In February 2010, the Arlington County manager will present a recommended budget for 2011 to the board. Public hearings will be held in late March, and the board will adopt the budget at its April 2010 meeting.