Arlington tax bill might grow heftier

Service cuts also sought to close budget gap; workers get 1% raise

Arlington County residents and employees should prepare for significant changes in services and programs as well as a tax increase as the county tries to close a potential budget gap caused by the economy, officials say.

The five-member County Board directed finance staff members last weekend to prepare a budget that raises taxes and cuts expenses and services in equal measure to close a budget gap estimated at between $80 million and $100 million for the year that begins July 1. But the board also used money left over from last year to increase county employees' pay.

"The scale of the numbers we're looking at here is unprecedented," said Mark Schwartz, the chief financial officer. "It's going to be hard, but we feel fortunate because we feel like we're in a relatively strong position."

Schwartz said that it's too early to tell what services might be cut but that based on current estimates the average homeowner could see taxes increase $4 to $5 a month. The county might also look into laying off employees, ending programs or cutting library hours.

"We're going to propose a budget that's going to make a lot of people very unhappy," Schwartz said.

An advocate's plea

The debate about where service cuts will come from has already begun. At the Oct. 24 meeting, Erica Wood, head of the Arlington commission on long-term-care residences, urged the board to protect human services. She advocates on behalf of elderly and disabled residents and works to enhance the services of nursing homes, assisted-living residences and senior residences.

"If you cut a service for older people or people with disabilities, they can't come forward themselves and complain," she said. "These are our most vulnerable individuals, and they can't take that kind of cut."

Wood represents one of dozens of interest groups that hope the cuts won't affect them.

Arlington's financial problems are similar to those in jurisdictions across the region. Loudoun County, for example, this month dipped into public school reserves to help fill a $28 million revenue shortfall. In Prince George's County, about 50 employees were laid off, effective Sunday, as part of an effort to close a $22.7 million budget gap.

Harsh revenue drop?

The budget guidelines approved by the Arlington board state that for every dollar raised in taxes, a dollar in services should be cut. Board members said they hope that this balanced approach will help the county maintain a $947 million budget for fiscal 2011. Its actions are the first of several that will affect the 2011 financial plan.

Officials said the county anticipates collecting as much as $50 million less in revenue than this year and faces as much as $50 million in additional county and school expenses. Schwartz said the budget gap will be clearer by late next month or early January, when real estate assessments are completed.

In February, the Arlington County manager will present a recommended budget to the board. Public hearings will follow in late March, and the board will adopt a budget in April.