Washington Sketch: Will elections be a referendum on Obama? Depends on who wins.

"If all three go Republican, it's a referendum on Barack Obama," he opined on Fox. But then he suggested that even a victory by Republican Bob McDonnell in Virginia would be sufficient to bestow referendum status. "If that goes McDonnell's way, of course, that is going to be the referendum," Reagan amended.

Obama aides have been so determined to protect their boss from referendum fever that they began leaking accusations a couple of weeks ago that Creigh Deeds, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Virginia, was in bad shape because he had ignored the White House's advice.

The work was still being done in Monday's White House briefing. "What do you tell generic Democratic Congressman X not to read into the results in a New Jersey or a Virginia?" NBC's Chuck Todd asked Gibbs.

"I don't think that these elections will portend a lot," Gibbs pleaded.

But it's hard to distance the president from the candidates when he has made appearances for Deeds and for Gov. Jon Corzine in New Jersey; Vice President Biden was in New York on Monday making an appearance for Democratic congressional candidate Bill Owens. In New Jersey, Corzine and the Democrats have borrowed Obama's "Yes We Can" slogan, and Corzine has told voters that "President Obama needs us." Former president Bill Clinton, apparently straying from the White House line, even used the R-word in a fundraising appeal for Owens: "With the world watching, this race will be seen as a referendum on President Obama's agenda."

The world agrees. Even the German news agency Deutsche Presse-Agentur calls it an "early referendum on Obama." Here at home, journalists cautiously concur that it "could end up being a referendum" (CNN's John Roberts), will be "seen by many as a referendum" (the Wall Street Journal's Paul Gigot) or will be regarded as "some kind of referendum" by "a lot of people" (NBC's David Gregory).

Interviewed on CNN on Sunday, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, chairman of the Republican Governors Association, almost validated the Democrats' talking points when he called it "a great overstatement to say this is a referendum on President Obama." But Barbour recovered quickly, saying Obama's "policies have had a lot of effect on people's thinking."

They certainly have had an effect on Hannity's thinking. Almost nightly for the past few weeks, the Fox commentator has been making the case for calling Tuesday's contests a referendum. "I think it's a referendum on Obama," he said on Oct. 13. "This is a referendum -- these are referendum races," he said two weeks later. "I think this is a referendum election," he said a couple of days later about the New Jersey race, "even if it's close."

"Many," Hannity said of the Virginia race, "are viewing this as a referendum on the president himself."

Unless, of course, the Democrats win. In that case, Tuesday's "referendum" will be canceled faster than a runoff election in Afghanistan.