GOP House gains intensify competition in N.Virginia

Fresh from an election in which Republicans knocked off several entrenched Democrats in the Virginia House of Delegates, the state's GOP is poised to usher in a new era of tougher two-party politics in Northern Virginia, political observers say.

The defeat of several incumbents Tuesday marked a change from recent elections. During the past 14 years, nearly all of the state's delegates have been reelected, according to results analyzed by the nonprofit Virginia Public Access Project. This year's 90 percent reelection rate was the lowest since 1995.

An incumbent hadn't lost in Northern Virginia since 2005, when Del. David E. Poisson (D-Loudoun), who was defeated Tuesday, ousted Richard H. Black, one of the House's most conservative members. And in that election, Virginia voters moved away from traditionally conservative candidates.

On Tuesday, Republicans gained six seats in the House, winning eight and losing two with one race undecided. Those victories were made possible by a lethargic Democratic voter base and an energized GOP supporting former attorney general Robert F. McDonnell for governor, said Bob Holsworth, a political blogger and former public policy professor at Virginia Commonwealth University.

"I can't remember in the past 20 years a blowout like this in the House of Delegates," Holsworth said. "Incumbents are usually inoculated, but this shows the extraordinary coattails of Bob McDonnell."

Although Democrats have a narrow majority in the Senate, the GOP gain in the House makes it more likely the Republicans will control the 2011 redistricting process that sets election district lines, Holsworth and other observers said. House Majority Leader H. Morgan Griffith (R-Salem) said the results, while impressive, were not too surprising, because most of the seats taken by Republicans had been held by the GOP in the past decade.

Holsworth said the Democratic losses might also signal a shift toward more competitive state races. "Voters may be holding their delegates more accountable for what they consider to be the problems they are facing, and it might make them more vulnerable," he said.

Democrats say Northern Virginia will continue to be a region where the parties are highly competitive.

"There was a red tide that came through, and in any other election year those delegates would have made it through," said Tim Buchholz, chairman of the Loudoun County Democratic Committee. "We've been through this cycle before, and we'll probably be through it again. Last year, people were telling me Loudoun was blue. I told them, 'Absolutely not.' "

Several of the newly elected Northern Virginia Republicans attributed their wins to concerns by constituents over pragmatic issues such as transportation and jobs.

"While some of the national issues may have brought people out, it's what's being done at the ground level that people want answers for," said Thomas A. "Tag" Greason, who was elected to his first term in the House over Poisson. "The people I've talked to want to know what you're specifically going to do the fix the traffic problem."

Republican lobbyist Barbara J. Comstock, who won by 400 votes over first-term Del. Margaret G. Vanderhye (D) in a district that includes the affluent communities of Great Falls and McLean, said she will focus on jobs and the economy, without increasing taxes.

"We're the first to get taxed and the last to receive, and I don't think that makes sense," Comstock said. She said a Northern Virginia-Hampton Roads "urban coalition" of Republican delegates would be crucial to working on transportation initiatives.

All three Northern Virginia Republican winners -- Comstock, Greason and Falls Church businessman James M. LeMunyon -- were helped by their connections to Rep. Frank R. Wolf (R-Va.). LeMunyon housed his campaign headquarters in one of Wolf's old offices in Chantilly, and Comstock, a former spokeswoman for the Justice Department, was once a member of Wolf's staff.

"I believe that in my district you have one-third Republican, one-third Democrat and one-third independent," Wolf said. "People want to see someone that wants to solve their real-world problems and I think all of the Republican candidates really stressed the fundamental issues that impact people's lives."

In the two Virginia races where Democrats took back House seats, the results were not altogether unsurprising. Del. Phillip A. Hamilton (R), a 21-year incumbent embroiled in a conflict of interest scandal, lost to Robin A. Abbott in Newport News. And Democrat Luke Torian narrowly defeated Republican Rafael Lopez in a Prince William district that was left-leaning. Del. Jeffrey M. Frederick (R), a controversial figure, had retired, leaving the seat open.

In the final unresolved race of Tuesday night, elections officials are probably heading toward a recount in the 21st District, where Republican Ron Villanueva held a 16-vote lead in against Del. Bobby Mathieson (D-Virginia Beach).