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Sunday, November 8, 2009

TELEVISED GAMESMATCHUPWILBON'S TAKEUSER PICKS

REDSKINS (2-5) AT ATLANTA (4-3)

1 p.m., WTTG-5, Falcons by 10

The Redskins are 2-5 despite playing one of the league's weakest schedules (opponents' record: 16-35); Atlanta's opponents are 30-19. The Falcons are 10-1 at the Georgia Dome under Coach Mike Smith. QB Matt Ryan has been sacked only nine times this season, fourth fewest in the NFL, and four of those came in a loss at Dallas. The Redskins (with 96 points) are one of only five teams that have not yet scored 100. The Falcons are coming off the first back-to-back losses in the Mike Smith-Matt Ryan era; the streak won't reach three.

98%

picked the Falcons

BALTIMORE (4-3) AT CINCINNATI (5-2)

1 p.m., WUSA-9, WJZ-13,

Ravens by 2 1/2

At Baltimore last month, Carson Palmer (7-3 against the Ravens) led the Bengals on an 80-yard touchdown drive, throwing a 20-yard pass to Andre Caldwell with 22 seconds left for the team's fourth straight last-minute win. Ravens LB Ray Lewis drew a 15-yard penalty for a hit on WR Chad Ochocinco on that drive and was fined $25,000 by the NFL for that hit and for kicking a Bengals player. Ravens QB Joe Flacco has thrown a touchdown pass in seven straight games. This is one of those good rematches. Will Cincy sweep the Ravens? Nope, Baltimore wins for the split, with Joe Flacco lighting it up.

57%

picked the Ravens

SAN DIEGO (4-3) AT

N.Y. GIANTS (5-3)

4:15 p.m.,WUSA-9, WJZ-13,

Giants by 5

This is the first meeting between QBs Philip Rivers and Eli Manning since the 2004 draft-day trade. In his last five games against NFC teams, Rivers has thrown for 11 touchdowns and only one interception. Manning is his opposite; he has thrown six interceptions and three touchdowns in the Giants' three-game losing streak. There is something for the Giants to cling to, however: New York has five straight wins over AFC teams. San Diego is inspired in these kinds of games, but the Giants have lost three straight and Tom Coughlin is in boot camp mode. It'll work.

72%

picked the Giants

CAROLINA (3-4) AT

NEW ORLEANS (7-0)

4:05 p.m., WBFF-45, Saints by 13

Carolina QB Jake Delhomme, a Louisiana native and former Saints backup, is 8-2 against the Saints. The Panthers have not lost in Louisiana since 2001, including a 27-10 win in Baton Rouge in 2005. In the teams' last meeting, RB DeAngelo Williams rushed for 178 yards; the Panthers are 10-0 when he rushes for 110 or more yards. This one may not be the slam-dunk it would seem: Panthers Coach John Fox is 10-4 against the Saints and New Orleans Coach Sean Payton is 1-5 against the Panthers. Looking for a place in the schedule that will result in a Saints loss? Me, too, but this ain't it. The Saints will stay undefeated.

96%

picked the Saints

DALLAS (5-2) AT PHILADELPHIA (5-2)

8:20 p.m., WRC-4, WBAL-11,

Eagles by 3

Here's an odd tidbit: Dallas has faced no team more often than Philadelphia (beating the Eagles 55 times in 99 meetings). The Cowboys have won three in a row and WR Miles Austin has 21 catches for 482 yards and five touchdowns during the streak, which coincides with his first three NFL starts. Those are the most yards for a wide receiver in his first three starts since the 1970 merger. The Eagles' 5-2 mark is their best through seven games since they were 7-0 in 2004, when they went to the Super Bowl. The Eagles are the hardest good team to predict. The Cowboys haven't beaten anybody decent other than Atlanta at home.

71%

picked the Eagles

NON-TELEVISED GAMESMATCHUPWILBON'S TAKEUSER PICKS

ARIZONA (4-3) AT CHICAGO (4-3)

1 p.m., Bears by 3

Call this one the Bears-Are-Who-We-Thought-They-Were Bowl. Last time the teams met, in 2006, then-Coach Dennis Green uttered those famous words after the Bears rallied from 20 down at halftime. Now, it's the Cardinals who have an identity. They're 3-0 on the road, their best start since they won their first four away games in 1982. Who are the Bears? Well, they had five takeaways (two interceptions, three fumble recoveries) last week, although Jay Cutler was sacked four times. Arizona, traditionally a road casualty, is 3-0 away from home. It's hard to see the Bears' defense stopping the Cardinals' passing game.

59%

picked the Bears

MIAMI (3-4) AT

NEW ENGLAND (5-2)

1 p.m., Patriots by 10 1/2

The Dolphins first used the Wildcat in their third game last season, a 38-13 win that ended New England's NFL record 21-game regular season winning streak. Both teams were 11-5 last season, but Miami won the AFC East with a better conference record and New England missed the playoffs for the first time in six years. Tom Brady is 34-8 as a starter in the regular season against AFC East teams, although five of his losses have come against Miami. Dolphins QB Chad Henne is 3-1 as the starter. The Patriots are starting to find their stride. In what should be a great, close game, New England will win at home.

93%

picked the Patriots

HOUSTON (5-3) AT INDIANAPOLIS (7-0)

1 p.m., Colts by 9

This game features the NFL's top two wide receivers in yardage: Houston's Andre Johnson (697) and Indy's Reggie Wayne (689). Texans QB Matt Schaub has more touchdown passes (16) than Peyton Manning (15), although Schaub has played one more game. Schaub, however, will be missing TE Owen Daniels, who is out for the season. The Colts are trying to become the fourth team in NFL history with 17 consecutive regular season wins. Manning needs one win to tie Fran Tarkenton for fourth on the NFL's career list. This isn't about picking the better team, just today's winner. I'm closing my eyes . . . Houston ends Indy's run. There, I've done it.

92%

picked the Colts

GREEN BAY (4-3) AT TAMPA BAY (0-7)

1 p.m., Packers by 9 1/2

The Packers have allowed an NFL-high 31 sacks in seven games and the Bucs have been among the least effective teams at rushing the passer (tied for 29th with 11 takedowns.) Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is the league's highest-rated passer and has had a 100-plus passer rating in each of the past five games. As for the Bucs, well, they'll wear throwback uniforms and helmets from their 1976 inaugural season. CB Aqib Talib has emerged as one of Tampa Bay's top players with four interceptions in the last four games. The Packers can't get caught in a trap game. Tampa is the worst team I've ever seen and must figure it has a chance to win. It won't.

96%

picked the Packers

KANSAS CITY (1-6) AT JACKSONVILLE (3-4)

1 p.m., Jaguars by 6 1/2

The Chiefs will be without RB Larry Johnson, suspended one game for conduct detrimental to the team; Jamaal Charles will start in his place. In five of their seven games, the Chiefs have given up more than 400 yards of offense, with long passing plays the biggest problem. K.C. has been barbecued for a league-high 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Jags aren't much better; they've allowed more than 365 yards in six of seven games. This one, mercifully, will be blacked out on local television.A victory would put Jacksonville back in the wild-card hunt. Maurice Jones-Drew will have a huge day against the Chiefs' run defense.

94%

picked the Jaguars

DETROIT (1-6) AT

SEATTLE (2-5)

4:05 p.m., Seahawks by 10

Detroit Coach Jim Schwartz says WR Calvin Johnson (knee) will be a game-time decision. Johnson has 20 catches of 25-plus yards the last two seasons, second most in the NFL. He hasn't played since Oct. 11. The Lions last won on the road on Oct. 28, 2007, at Chicago. The last time the Seahawks played the Lions was their first game after their 2006 Super Bowl appearance in Detroit. They are 27-31 since then. Twelve starters have missed at least one game because of injury this season. At least three will miss this game. We're not going to waste a lot of words here: Seattle wins big at home.

90%

picked the Seahawks

TENNESSEE (1-6) AT

SAN FRANCISCO (3-4)

4:15 p.m., 49ers by 4

49ers Coach Mike Singletary and Titans Coach Jeff Fisher were chosen by Chicago in the 1981 draft -- Singletary in the second round and Fisher in the seventh. After an 0-6 start, Tennessee snapped an eight-game skid last Sunday. QB Vince Young started for first time in more than a year and completed 15 of 18 passes for 125 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The 49ers have lost three straight, the last two by a combined seven points. QB Alex Smith will make his first start at home since Oct. 28, 2007. The Titans say they can win 10 straight as they did in '08. Well, how about eight straight, starting next week? The Niners need this one.

83%

picked the 49ers

MONDAY'S GAMEMATCHUPWILBON'S TAKEUSER PICKS

PITTSBURGH (5-2) AT DENVER (6-1)

8:30 p.m., ESPN, Steelers by 3

Pittsburgh's top wide receiver, Hines Ward, is averaging 14.3 yards per catch. Denver's top wideout, Brandon Marshall, is averaging 10.8 yards per reception. Marshall, however, has twice as many touchdowns (four) as Ward. Steelers rookie WR Mike Wallace has them both beat, averaging 17.5 yards per catch (21 receptions, 368 yards). In two games against Denver, Ward has averaged 102.5 yards receiving. The Steelers have won four straight despite a minus-3 turnover differential. Denver is plus-6. The Steelers have won four straight, are back to championship form, and will make it five straight at Denver.

62%

picked the Steelers



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