Democrats must stop coasting or risk more losses like those Tuesday

In the annals of inept campaigns for governor in our region, the disastrous effort by Virginia state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds is rivaled in recent memory perhaps only by Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend's humiliating loss in Maryland seven years ago. As Democrats study the results and look to 2010, however, they would blunder if they blame their mangling at the polls Tuesday exclusively on Deeds's poor candidacy.

Instead, as the Republican victory in New Jersey also showed, Democrats need to recognize that they have grown too complacent after their successes earlier this decade, which culminated in President Obama's election a year ago. Mistakenly thinking they could coast on the momentum, Democrats neglected to lay out a sufficiently clear, positive vision of where and how they wanted to lead. They also failed to respond adequately to voters' disgruntlement in hard economic times and skepticism over the explosion in deficit spending in Washington.

The party must embrace those lessons or risk further setbacks next November. Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley (D), in particular, should pay attention as he seeks reelection. He could be vulnerable to some of the same trends that routed Deeds and led to the defeat of New Jersey Gov. Jon S. Corzine (D). Tuesday's results also increase the chances that O'Malley's strongest potential opponent, former governor Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., will jump into the race.

In Virginia, the victorious Republican Robert F. McDonnell was a conservative who positioned himself as a moderate, and Deeds was a moderate who positioned himself as clueless. He lost by 17 percentage points a year after Obama became the first Democrat to carry the state in four decades.

Deeds (D-Bath) appeared to think he could win just by promising he would follow the path of the Democrats who won the last two gubernatorial elections, now-U.S. Sen. Mark Warner and Gov. Timothy M. Kaine. Deeds sounded confused about his positions, especially on taxes and transportation. He failed to win over two key pillars of the traditional Democratic coalition in the Old Dominion -- independents in Northern Virginia and African Americans statewide.

However, Deeds also was the victim in part of anti-Democratic trends over which he had little control. Many independents were unhappy over Democrats' actions in Washington, especially bailouts and plans to expand government through health reform and energy regulation. Many minority and young voters who surged to the polls last year didn't turn out for an off-year election when Obama wasn't on the ticket.

A similar political climate would pose problems for O'Malley. Although he starts with a seemingly invincible 2-to-1 Democratic advantage in voter registration, the electorate is in a grumpy, anti-incumbent mood.

"I think it'd be hard for Ehrlich to overcome that [registration] number, but if there's ever a favorable environment for a Republican, this would seemingly be the time," Maryland Attorney General Douglas F. Gansler (D) said.

O'Malley is especially susceptible to attacks over taxes, a key issue in Virginia and New Jersey. He presided over big increases in the sales tax and corporate income tax in 2007.

Moreover, the weak economy and political wrangling have frustrated much of O'Malley's program at a time when voters are looking for practical results. It's not going to get any easier, because he must find $2.3 billion in state budget savings over the next two years.

"Maryland is a tougher state [for Republicans] than Virginia or New Jersey, but it's not immune to the same dynamics that fueled the changes in those states," said Lawrence J. Hogan Jr., a former Ehrlich appointments secretary. He would be a top GOP candidate for governor if Ehrlich stays out of the race. Ehrlich, who defeated Townsend in 2002 after the Democrat ran a widely criticized campaign, was the only Republican governor of Maryland in the past 40 years.

A poll released Wednesday highlighted the challenges for O'Malley. It found that 39 percent of Marylanders wanted to see him reelected, but 48 percent said they'd like someone else to win. His approval ratings were below 40 percent on several issues, including taxes, jobs, the budget and electricity rates, according to the survey by the nonpartisan Clarus Research Group.

On the bright side for O'Malley, it showed him beating Ehrlich by seven percentage points.

"A number of people would like to see [O'Malley] replaced, but you can't beat somebody with nobody," Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr. (D-Calvert) said. "Compared to Bob Ehrlich, he's still seven points up. . . . He's got the bully pulpit for another year to define his message and work on getting out the vote."

In ousting Ehrlich in 2006, O'Malley proved he's a more skilled campaigner than Deeds. He will point to accomplishments such as protecting education spending and freezing tuition at state universities for four years. Governing Magazine just put him on its cover in naming him one of its eight "public officials of the year."

Nevertheless, Tuesday's results have put the Democrats on notice that they can't take their success for granted just because Obama led them to a heady triumph last year.

E-mail me at mccartneyr@washpost.com.