Reverse mortgages are not the next subprime

Subprime foreclosures imposed heavy losses on lenders and on investors in mortgage securities issued against subprime mortgages. Such securities were widely held by investors, which included Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Losses by the agencies on their subprime securities played a major role in their insolvency.

In contrast, no lenders have suffered or will suffer losses on HECMs because they are insured against loss by the FHA. The FHA assumes the losses when HECM loan balances grow to the point where they exceed property values. However, this is an expected contingency against which the FHA maintains a reserve account supported by insurance premiums paid by borrowers.

It is true that the unprecedented decline in property values over the last few years has increased losses and eaten into the FHA's reserves. But the FHA has responded to that by reducing the percentage of home values that seniors can access. According to a recent study by New View Advisors, who are seasoned experts on HECMs, this should allow the FHA to break even over the long run.

In sum, the current state of the HECM market has no resemblance whatsoever to the conditions in the subprime market that led to disaster.

Jack Guttentag is professor of finance emeritus at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He can be contacted through his Web site, http://www.mtgprofessor.com.

© 2009 Jack Guttentag

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