By Haq Nawaz Khan and Pamela Constable
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, February 2, 2010;
A01
PESHAWAR, PAKISTAN -- The reported death of the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, a violent Islamist group with close links to al-Qaeda, leaves the predatory and feared militia effectively decapitated, with its fighters on the run from the Pakistani army and public sympathy running low.
Although the Pakistani Taliban has shown resilience in the past, Pakistani analysts said it would be difficult for the group to quickly recover from the loss of Hakimullah Mehsud, who has reportedly died in a village in northwest Pakistan of burns and injuries he suffered during a U.S. drone missile attack in mid-January.
The group lost its original leader, Baitullah Mehsud, to a drone strike in August. In recent months, it has been driven out of its major sanctuary and become isolated from elders of the Mehsud tribe, who are negotiating with the government to hand over surviving Taliban commanders.
"If he's gone, it's a fatal blow," said Imtiaz Gul, director of the Center for Research and Security Studies in Islamabad, the Pakistani capital. "At one point, the Taliban had a lot of momentum and a charismatic leader. Now they've been uprooted and lost all credibility."
Some commentators noted that despite recent losses, the Pakistani Taliban is a highly motivated, ruthless militia with a strong religious agenda that has demonstrated a repeated ability to recover from setbacks. In the past several years, the group has evolved from a rudimentary tribal force to a sophisticated insurgency, capable of attacking major targets and collaborating with other militant groups, including al-Qaeda.
Some observers warned Monday that if Mehsud has died, the Taliban forces may attempt to launch retaliatory strikes and step up their campaign of suicide bombings in an effort to prove they have not been weakened.
The Taliban once had significant support among a variety of Pakistanis, including religious groups and residents of the tribal areas who felt alienated from the state. But the group's cruel repression in areas under its control and attacks on civilian as well as military targets have caused it to lose public support, according to opinion polls and analysts.
'A real turning point'Pakistani officials have not officially confirmed Mehsud's death, but there were indications Monday that both sides were moving forward under the assumption that the Pakistani Taliban is in search of a new leader. Mehsud, whose group has carried out dozens of suicide bombings, was widely described as Pakistan's top public enemy after he took over the Taliban leadership last year.
He was also the object of an intensive manhunt carried out by CIA drone planes. Aerial strikes intensified after Dec. 30, when a Jordanian suicide bomber attacked a CIA base in Afghanistan, killing five CIA employees, two agency contractors and a Jordanian intelligence officer. A video released later showed the bomber meeting with Hakimullah Mehsud and calling on all Muslims to avenge the killing of Baitullah Mehsud.
Gul said the revelation that Mehsud had been involved in the CIA base attack in Khost province was "a real turning point. After that, he became a prime target." There were also unconfirmed reports Monday that Qarimullah Hussain, the Taliban's senior strategist and a likely replacement as its leader, had been wounded and possibly killed in a drone attack in mid-January.
U.S. intelligence agencies remained cautious in their comments about Hakimullah Mehsud's fate. A day after a senior White House official said he was "95 percent" certain about the death, counterterrorism officials declined to make a pronouncement but said an evaluation is continuing.
"It's to some extent incumbent on him to prove he's still in command," said one official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss classified counterterrorism operations.
The official acknowledged a "range of reports" coming out of the tribal areas, including credible but unconfirmed accounts that Hakimullah Mehsud and his top deputy had died. Although the loss of top leaders would not necessarily be fatal to the Pakistani Taliban, it would severely damage the group's operational capability and spark infighting between rival factions, he said. "You send a message to the lower ranks that the guy who takes the top job may not be there for long, and is apt to come to a very bad end," he said.
"In both symbol and substance, this is quite a blow," said Afrasiab Khattak, a senator and ethnic Pashtun political leader in northwest Pakistan. "They have lost a lot of territory to the army, and they have been substantially cut down to size. Now once more they would have to go through the whole exercise of finding a new leader at a very difficult time."
'No going halfway'Mehsud's death would be a major boost for the army, which has lost more than 2,200 men in the fight against Islamist militants in the past eight years and has said it is stretched too thin to begin a major new operation in the North Waziristan tribal area, where many Taliban fighters are believed to have fled.
Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani, Pakistan's army chief, told a group of foreign journalists Monday that with 147,000 troops deployed near the Afghan border to fight Pakistani militants, and 100,000 stationed along Pakistan's eastern border with rival India, "almost the entire army is involved in operations. We need to train and rest."
In a lengthy briefing at army headquarters in Rawalpindi, Kiyani gave a detailed description of recent army operations in South Waziristan, including helicopter drops of hundreds of troops onto steep ridgelines. "The myth had to be broken" that the Taliban controlled the rugged tribal territory, he said. "There was no going halfway."
Kiyani, who did not discuss the reported death of Mehsud, expressed satisfaction with the military's progress against the militants and noted repeatedly that the military campaign now has strong public support, which was not always the case. "This is our war, not a U.S. war," he said several times.
Conflicting reports on Mehsud's fate have circulated during the past two days. There is general agreement that he was wounded in a drone strike in mid-January, although it is not clear whether it was a Jan. 14 attack on a militant compound near the Afghan border or a strike on Jan. 17 that hit two vehicles in which Taliban leaders were reportedly traveling.
Tribal and Taliban sources in the region have declined to publicly confirm Mehsud's death, but one elder from the Orakzai tribal region said Monday that the leader had been taken to Mamozai village several days ago, unconscious and badly burned, and that he later died. The elder, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that about 15 people attended the low-key funeral.
"I am confirming that Hakimullah Mehsud died and was buried in Mamozai a few days ago," the elder said in an interview in Peshawar. "He was brought in an unconscious condition. Half his body was burned from the chemicals of a missile. The Taliban brought a doctor . . . but lack of facilities and equipment made it difficult for the doctor to help him to recover."
A Taliban source in the North Waziristan tribal area insisted Monday that Mehsud is still alive and that he had spoken to him by telephone Sunday, but he acknowledged that the Taliban leader had been "seriously injured" in a drone attack. He said that Mehsud's health had "deteriorated" and that he had received medical treatment, but he did not say what the results were.
Other analysts suggested that Mehsud, who was quick several weeks ago to deny reports that he had been killed, would probably have issued similar denials by now if he were alive. He was known as an articulate and aggressive promoter of the Taliban cause, and analysts said his recent silence is probably the best proof of his death.
Khan is a special correspondent. Constable reported from Islamabad. Staff writer Joby Warrick in Washington contributed to this report.
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