Can Sarah Palin translate celebrity into real political power?

Sarah Palin was the toast of the tea party convention. But most Americans don't think she is qualified to be president, according to a new poll. (Melina Mara/the Washington Post)
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But as one GOP strategist, who declined to be identified in order to speak more freely about her, put it, "Palin has a following that is thoroughly uninterested in experiences on issues and instead is completely motivated by attributes. They'll take her authenticity over her ideas every day of the week."

"No matter what she does, she has an important role in the Republican Party," said Fred Malek, who has advised Palin over many months. "She relates to and embraces the grass roots in a way nobody else does."

For those thinking of running for the GOP nomination in 2012, Palin's presence must be noted but not engaged politically or substantively. "To do anything, to go out and challenge her, just does not make any sense right now," said another Republican strategist who is advising a prospective 2012 candidate. The risk, this strategist said, is that a candidate could alienate voters who, if Palin does not run, will be looking for someone else. "And it's clear she holds a grudge and doesn't forget it," he said.

But the others should be paying close attention, Castellanos said. "Mitt Romney, Pawlenty and every other Republican contender ought to be worried," he said. "An authentic, populist voice has emerged as the anti-Obama and that voice doesn't belong to the Republican establishment. It belongs to Sarah Palin."

Expanded political team

Since leaving the governorship last summer, Palin has taken steps to expand her political operation, which was derided even by those in the Republican Party as thin and inexperienced.

Tim Crawford, who has been working in GOP politics for 30 years, serves as the treasurer of her political action committee. Others who are helping include Randy Scheunemann, who offers foreign policy advice as he did during her vice presidential campaign. Longtime adviser Meg Stapleton continues to serve as principal liaison to the news media.

Palin told "Fox News Sunday" host Chris Wallace that she receives a daily e-mail from advisers outlining domestic and international developments. Asked by Wallace if she is more knowledgeable about domestic and foreign affairs now than she was two years ago, she replied: "Well, I would hope so. Yes, I am."

Those in Palin's circle said there is no single person to whom she turns most often for advice. There is no Karl Rove to George W. Bush, or Lee Atwater to Bush's father. "It's not like there's this last person she talks to before she goes to bed to get her marching orders," said one person knowledgeable about her operation who declined to be identified in order to share information. "It's her instincts and her thinking that's driving this."

Palin continues to express surprise to some of those close to her about the attention she attracts, most recently her tea party convention experience. But she is keenly aware, they say, of the poll numbers that show her as unelectable in a general election at this point.

Where there is disagreement is in reading between the lines of her recent activities to discern whether there is a budding candidacy in the works or the playing out of something that has brought Palin national celebrity and commercial success.

Some strategists see her efforts as intended to make sure that the door to a candidacy remains open until she is ready to make the decision. Others interviewed for this story think she is not doing all she can or should to develop relationships in key states, either during her book tour or on other travel. "When she was on her book tour, people wanted to meet with her, but she didn't do any of that," said one person who has been watching her closely.

A recent Gallup poll showed a wide-open race for the Republican nomination in 2012. Asked to name their preferred candidate, 14 percent of Republicans named Romney; 11 percent said Palin. But 42 percent offered no opinion, and the rest were scattered among a slew of other candidates.

As for the widespread lack of confidence in her ability to be president, one adviser said Palin has time to turn that around if she decides she wants to run in 2012. Another Republican said that if she chooses not to run, she can play an influential role in determining who wins.

For now, she remains the Wasilla-based mother who is rapidly becoming the embodiment of the anger and disenchantment that has been rising since Obama took office. As good as that might make people feel, that is far from a willingness to entrust their futures, and the country's, to her.

"Her challenge is to fill in the substantive blanks in a way that demonstrates that capacity, without losing her uniqueness and her role as provocateur," said Tom Rath, a GOP strategist who has been part of Romney's political team. "Not easy."