China's central bank says it's ready to free up currency, making trade partners happy
Sunday, June 20, 2010
BEIJING -- Facing growing pressure from around the world, China's central bank announced Saturday that it is prepared to allow the country's currency to float more freely against the dollar and other foreign currencies, potentially raising the cost of Chinese goods.
The statement, from a spokesman for the People's Bank of China, gave no details on when China would allow its currency -- known as the yuan or the renminbi -- to appreciate or by how much. But the timing of its release, just before the leaders of the world's largest economies gather for a G-20 meeting in Toronto, was clearly aimed at taking pressure off Beijing.
Many countries, including the United States, have criticized China's fixed exchange rate, which critics say was keeping the country's exports too cheap and hurting manufacturers and traders worldwide. A group of U.S. senators had even threatened to slap tariffs of as much as 25 percent on all Chinese goods coming into the United States if China did not allow the yuan to appreciate against the dollar.
Whether Saturday's announcement will help the U.S. economy depends on how much Beijing lets its currency rise. A jump of 20 percent, for example, could cut as much as $150 billion off the U.S. trade deficit with China and create as many as 1 million U.S. jobs by making American exports more competitive, according to estimates by C. Fred Bergsten of the Peterson Institute of International Economics. From 2005 to 2008, China let the yuan appreciate 20 percent against the dollar before it stopped the process while it confronted the global financial crisis.
Few economists think China will let the yuan rise by that much, at least not yet. "This is a step in the right direction," said Bergsten, who has advised the Chinese government on the currency issue, "but the question is how far they will let the yuan rise -- and how fast."
A strong yuan, however, is not expected to hit American pocketbooks too hard, because even though Chinese exports -- think Wal-Mart, Best Buy and Toys R Us -- could rise in price, cheap products from other big exporters such as Mexico and India could replace them on store shelves.
China's announcement, communicated in advance to U.S. officials, was immediately welcomed by the White House, which saw it as a vindication of President Obama's nonconfrontational policy of trying to quietly negotiate over the exchange rate. The Obama administration had delayed a report on China's currency that had been due in April, for example, to give Beijing more time.
Obama, in a statement, called the announcement "a constructive step that can help safeguard the recovery and contribute to a more balanced global economy." Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner added that "vigorous implementation would make a positive contribution to strong and balanced global growth."
But critics remained skeptical, noting that China has sent signals before about a currency appreciation -- usually ahead of an international meeting or deadline -- and then done nothing. The most recent example came in April, when senior Chinese officials told reporters on the eve of President Hu Jintao's visit to Washington for a nuclear security summit that it was time to allow more flexibility in the currency. Hu attended the summit, and the currency was left unchanged.
"This vague and limited statement of intentions is China's typical response to pressure," said Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), who has co-authored legislation that would impose tariffs on Chinese goods if the yuan does not appreciate.
"We hope the Chinese will get more specific in the next few days," Schumer said in a statement. "If not, then for the sake of American jobs and wealth, which are hurt every day by China's practices, we will have no choice but to move forward with our legislation."