The Fix: Will Michael Steele survive?

1. Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele's most recent gaffe -- this one about the war in Afghanistan -- has effectively eliminated any chance he might have had to return to his post after the 2010 election, according to a number of individuals close to the committee.

However, those same sources insisted that Steele is likely to survive until the election. "If you believe in death by 1,000 cuts, he is around 896," said one Republican operative who keeps a close eye on the RNC's inner workings.

Another high-level Republican strategist said there had been a series of calls over the weekend about the possibility of a placeholder chairman being put in place through the election but acknowledged that scenario is very unlikely for three reasons.

First, Steele remains relatively popular with the 168 Republican national committeemen and committeewomen who ultimately decide his fate. Second, the source said, "the prevailing sentiment is that it's not worth the commotion with four months to the midterm [elections] and six months until a new chairman." Third, no Republican incumbent has directly called on Steele to resign although he was scolded by Sens. John McCain (Ariz.), Jim DeMint (S.C.) and Lindsey Graham (S.C.) on the Sunday talk shows.

The next major moment for Steele -- barring another gaffe -- is early next month at the RNC summer meeting in Kansas City, Mo. At that gathering, Steele's commitment to overhaul (or at least adjust) the 2012 presidential nominating contest will be voted on.

One GOP strategist described the calendar change as Steele's "legacy" issue and said the vote could provide a gauge to how much damage his most recent gaffe has done to himself within the committee.

Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman Reince Priebus put a brave face on Steele's struggles. "Based on my conversations with the chairman and committee members, they have their eye on the prize -- winning Republican majorities in November, not replacing a chairman with a major election staring us in the face," said Priebus.

But once the midterm election is over, multiple Republican sources told the Fix there is a widespread recognition that Steele's tenure is over -- no matter what happens at the ballot box.

"Most members have already come to the conclusion that they can't have Steele as chairman in a presidential cycle," said one high-level GOP operative. "If you think his gaffes are a distraction now, imagine them in the heat of a presidential campaign."

2. The West Virginia Chamber of Commerce has called on Gov. Joe Manchin (D) and the state Legislature to move the date of the special election for the late Sen. Robert Byrd's (D-W.Va.) seat from November 2012 to this November.

"The people of West Virginia deserve the opportunity to select the person who will represent them in the U.S. Senate," said chamber president Steve Roberts on Monday. "I truly believe Senator Byrd would want to voters to decide who their next U.S. senator will be."

The chamber's statement is not terribly surprising given the group's general support of Republicans. It comes on the heels of a video message by West Virginia Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D), in which she said she was personally in favor of holding the special election for Byrd's seat earlier than November 2012 -- the date she set earlier last week.