Strike in S. Africa shows strains in ruling alliance

JOHANNESBURG - After Jacob Zuma won South Africa's presidency by courting left-wing support, many expected him to abandon the free market policies favored by his predecessor, Thabo Mbeki.

Instead, business leaders have been relieved to see little change in economic policy since Zuma's election victory in April last year. However, that stability has come at the cost of unrest among the president's natural allies on the left, vividly demonstrated by the bitter public sector strike that entered its ninth day Thursday, paralyzing South Africa's health and education services.

The African National Congress governs in partnership with the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the Communist Party, all key participants in the dismantling of apartheid. The ANC under Zuma's leadership is the most powerful member of this "tripartite alliance," but all partners are supposed to have a say in policy.

Under Mbeki, both Cosatu and the Communists complained of being marginalized. Their decision to help topple Mbeki in 2008 and back Zuma's bid for the presidency was "sold to members as something that would make a big difference, and would make sure the left-wing agenda was taken much more seriously," said Steven Friedman of the Center for the Study of Democracy.

Instead, the continuity of economic policy and the current strike suggest that those hopes have been dashed. The Communist Party has said that relations between the government and public sector workers have been reduced "to an employer-employee relationship." The strike action began after the state refused union demands for an 8.6 percent pay raise.

Still, the Communists have avoided an open break with Zuma. The party has been pragmatic enough to move away from its Marxist roots: Both Blade Nzimande, the general secretary, and Jeremy Cronin, his deputy, serve as government ministers.

"I don't think there were huge expectations about what could happen - the space is not necessarily huge for some dramatic leap leftwards," Cronin said. "What one hopes for and what's immediately possible are not necessarily the same thing."

Cosatu, however, has shown less restraint, becoming the most outspoken member of the tripartite alliance. The trade union federation, with more than 2 million members, has urged the government to help manufacturing by weakening the rand and pursuing an "alternative growth path" centered on job creation. Instead, Zuma has continued the orthodox policy of his predecessor, focused on controlling inflation and minimizing budget deficits.

The tension between Cosatu and Zuma goes beyond policy disagreements. Zwelinzima Vavi, Cosatu's general secretary, was threatened with disciplinary action by the ANC in June after he publicly denounced alleged self-enrichment by cabinet ministers.

The tough response came from a belief that such words should be uttered in private, says Brian Sokutu, an ANC spokesman. Zuma has warned union leaders against sounding like opposition politicians.

But Vavi raised the rhetorical stakes Thursday, declaring that South Africa was "heading rapidly in the direction of a full-blown predator state, in which a powerful, corrupt and demagogic elite of political hyenas increasingly controls the state as a vehicle for accumulation." The tripartite alliance has entered "paralysis," he added.

Cosatu's leaders "now have to deal with the reality that the new ANC leadership, which they helped to elect, is in a sense as unsympathetic as the old one was," Friedman said.

Despite the strains, however, the tripartite alliance is unlikely to dissolve. All of its members still have a powerful interest in holding together. The ANC needs the organizational strength of Cosatu and the Communists for its election campaigns. Meanwhile, the latter two groups enjoy more political influence inside the tent than they would outside it.

"Predictions of the imminent collapse of the alliance are as old as the alliance itself," said Aubrey Matshiqi of the Center for Policy Studies.

- Financial Times