Sunday, November 7, 2010;
Quick, someone call Ben Ginsberg or David Boies - Outlook's Crystal Ball competition is so close, it might trigger a recount.
What happened? Lots of contestants saw their ballots busted by Harry Reid's Nevada victory and Michael Bennet's razor-thin triumph in Colorado - it seems our forecasters were drinking a little too much tea this campaign season. Kudos to The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza and NPR's Ken Rudin for sticking with the Senate majority leader, and to the Daily Caller's Tucker Carlson, PBS's David Chalian and Politico's John Harris and Jim VandeHei for choosing Sen. Bennet.
CNN's Candy Crowley and HuffPo's Arianna Huffington accurately predicted the California and Maryland governor's races but failed to pick up bonus points on the final percentage results. They did defeat the AP government students from Virginia's Oakton High, who had the Senate going Republican. (Back to class, kids.)
So, with several House seats still undecided, Chalian, Rudin and VandeHarris are in a three-way tie for first place, which would go Chalian's way since he came closest on the tiebreaker question: What percentage of the Delaware Senate vote will Christine O'Donnell receive? She won 40 percent; Chalian predicted 41 percent.
But Chalian shouldn't celebrate quite yet - Carlson and ABC News's Amy Walter could still come out of the pack to steal this thing if enough undecided House seats go Democratic. Carlson could win it outright, or he could fall into a tie with Walter, who then would beat him on the tiebreaker. So, O'Donnell may not be a witch, but she does hold this Crystal Ball in her hands.
Will it be Amy, David or Tucker? Check back next week to find out.
- Carlos Lozada