Monday Fix: The GOP top 10 for 2012, Thune's possible warning shot for Romney

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

"But let me make one thing very clear,Mr. President: Advocating against this tax proposal is to advocate for a tax increase."

- Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), making comments that many saw as critical of potential presidential primary opponent Mitt Romney, an opponent of the tax-cut deal. Thune later said he wasn't targeting Romney.

WHO WILL WIN THE GOP NOMINATION?

This week the long-dormant 2012 presidential race began to stir with the announcement that the Ames Straw Poll, the first big organizational test of any Republican presidential race, will be held on Aug. 13. Below are our most recent rankings of the 10 candidates we consider most likely to win the nomination. The No. 1-ranked candidate has the best chance.

Rank	Candidate	Political office	Previous
10	Jim DeMint	South Carolina senator	N/A
9	Mike Pence	Indiana congressman	9
8	Mitch Daniels	Indiana governor	7
7	John Thune	South Dakota senator	5
6	Haley Barbour	Mississippi governor	4
5	Mike Huckabee	Former Arkansas governor	8
4	Tim Pawlenty	Minnesota governor	3
3	Newt Gingrich	Former speaker of the House	6
2	Sarah Palin	Former Alaska governor	2
1	Mitt Romney	Former Massachusetts governor	1

The best thing that happenedto Republicans

They got their tax cuts. The two-year extension of all of the Bush tax cuts that was included in President Obama's tax-cut compromise effectively pushes the ball forward on getting a permanent extension. This was Democrats' real chance to end the tax cuts, as they had a big majority in the House and close to a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. When the issue comes up again in two years - probably in the next lame-duck session - it will probably be much easier for Republicans to push through a permanent extension. And they may even have a Republican president-elect.

The best thing that happenedto Democrats

President Obama came off as a uniter. Say what you want about the liberal (and, for that matter, conservative) resistance to the president's tax-cut proposal; the House's overwhelming vote in favor of the package late Thursday night gave Obama one of the few big bipartisan wins of his presidency. And while he'll have to mend some fences on his side of the aisle, he's doing exactly what he needs to do if he wants to restore his good name with independent voters and win in 2012. The question now is whether this represents a calculated shift for Obama and how ticked off his base will continue to be after the holidays.

BY THE NUMBERS

14 Senate Democrats who voted for the tax-cut deal negotiated between President Obama and congressional Republicans out of the 15 considered most vulnerable in 2012 by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. By contrast, most upwardly mobile Republicans voted against the deal.

1 House Democratic leaders who voted in favor of the tax-cut deal late Thursday night. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) was the only one to support the measure. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) did not vote; Democratic Reps. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), James Clyburn (S.C.), John Larson (Conn.) and Xavier Becerra (Calif.) all voted no.

6 in 10 Voters who say they wouldn't even consider voting for former Alaska governor Sarah Palin (R) if she were to launch a White House bid, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. The survey shows that with Palin's high profile comes a high bar to clear if she wants to run for president in 2012.