Arms pact has votes to pass in Senate

A new nuclear arms treaty with Russia cleared a key hurdle in the Senate on Tuesday, advancing to a final vote with a margin that appeared to guarantee ratification and a major foreign-policy victory for President Obama.

The treaty, if also ratified by Russia as expected, would be the broadest nuclear arms-reduction pact between the former Cold War foes in nearly two decades. It replaces a treaty that was credited with ensuring stability between the countries that maintain 95 percent of the world's nuclear weapons. Since the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty I ended last year, the atomic giants have had no inspections of their strategic nuclear arsenals, a gap that worries the U.S. military.

The pact does not represent a dramatic step forward in disarmament, but it will reduce deployed, long-range nuclear warheads by up to 30 percent on each side. Republicans voiced concern that the treaty could be interpreted to limit development of a U.S. missile shield and had worked to extract additional commitments from the administration to fund the modernization of the aging U.S. nuclear arsenal.

Eleven Republicans joined all Democrats present in the chamber to approve a measure to limit debate, voting 67 to 28, a sufficient number for final passage. Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), who has shepherded the treaty through the Senate, predicted that a resolution of ratification would win at least 70 votes, probably Wednesday - well above the two-thirds supermajority required.

The stakes of the vote were high: Defeat would have severely damaged Obama's global standing, hampering his ability to negotiate other treaties, and dealt a setback to his "reset" of relations with Russia.

"It's one of those things in life where failing to get it would be more important than actually what you get with it," said George Perkovich, a scholar on nuclear nonproliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Perkovich noted that Washington's NATO allies had strongly supported the pact. "We would really lose credibility" if it failed, he said.

Although Obama is almost certain to win ratification, it may be with the tightest margin to date for a nuclear arms-control pact with Russia. The top two Republican senators opposed passage of New START, demonstrating the difficulty for Obama to move further on his sweeping goal of a world without nuclear weapons. His embrace of that idea helped him win the Nobel Peace Prize.

Kerry said the treaty would pick up three more votes on final passage, noting that three supporters were absent Tuesday - Democrats Evan Bayh (Ind.) and Ron Wyden (Ore.) and Republican Judd Gregg (N.H.).

In a reference to the partisan wrangling that has erupted over the treaty, Kerry told reporters: "I would say to you that in today's Washington, in today's Senate, 70 votes is yesterday's 95," the sort of support enjoyed by earlier arms-control efforts.

In six days of debate on New START, Republican critics have expressed concern about several substantive issues. One is missile defense: Although the pact does not legally bar the U.S. government from proceeding with its plans for a missile shield, Republicans worried that a few brief mentions of missile defense in the pact could provide Russia with a political pretext to pressure Washington. The administration said it will not be constrained.

Some senators also said they were not happy with the verification procedures in the treaty.