A Pox on Both Houses

On the surface, at least, there's good news for Democrats in the latest Washington Post-ABC poll.

When you've got 52 percent disapproving of Bush's performance and 56 percent turning thumbs down on the Republicans in Congress, that's got to provide a morale boost to the out-of-power party.

But it turns out that 56 percent also disapprove of the Democrats in Congress. In short, no one in D.C. is terribly popular right now.

I'm sure people realize the Republicans are running everything right now, so an unhappiness with the direction of the country has ultimately got to hurt the GOP more. And, yes, when asked who's responsible for the lack of progress on the nation's problems, 67 percent blamed Bush and the Republicans while 13 percent blamed Dems on the Hill. Throw in the numbers on Iraq -- nearly six in 10 say the war wasn't worth fighting and two-thirds see the U.S. as bogged down there -- and it's not a pretty picture for the president's party. After all, if there's one issue that Bush gets the credit or blame for, it's Iraq. And Mr. War on Terror has just 50-49 support on his signature issue.

But I'm always skeptical about these polls when it comes to Congress, and here's why. People are often fed up with what's happening or not happening on Capitol Hill, but they almost never blame their own member of Congress. In the House, incumbent reelection rates are in the high 90s. Both parties have so carefully rejiggered the political map that there are rarely more than a couple of dozen competitive House races, and dislodging Senate incumbents isn't easy, either.

So while these numbers may make the Democrats feel good, the poll doesn't necessarily mean gains in the (D) column in 2006. In fact, few analysts are predicting that the Democrats have a real shot at taking either chamber. They could, of course, shrink the margins, and the sixth year of a presidency is usually tough for the president's party (though Clinton's party gained House seats in his year of impeachment).

The larger issue for Bush, who staked so much on Iraq, is whether perceptions that it was an ill-advised adventure will harden to the point where it will be seen as a negative part of his legacy. And with Social Security going nowhere fast, and the House having defied him on stem cells (where even 60 percent of Republicans want looser restrictions), it will be difficult for Bush to change the subject.

Former FCC chief Reed Hundt, in the TPM Cafe, floats some possibilities about the poll findings:

"A clear majority of Americans say President Bush is ignoring the public's concerns and instead has become distracted by issues that most people say they care little about, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

"So, what's explanation? Here are some basic theories:

"First, the Administration is showing real leadership, trying to change the culture, and that takes time. You may not agree with their goals, but you have to recognize their motive.

"Second, the Administration's full strategy has yet to be revealed.