Election Tea Leaves

"According to the pundits, a pardon is a done deal. All that's up for grabs is the timing.

"Will it be after Scooter changes his plea to guilty, thus pulling the plug on a trial -- and robbing us of the pleasure of seeing Dick Cheney on the stand, under oath, being grilled on WMD, aluminum tubes, the WHIG, and the campaign to smear Joe Wilson? Or will Bush follow in the footsteps of his father's pardon of Cap Weinberger, and give Libby his presidential Stay Out of Jail Free card preemptively, before he even has to admit to any wrongdoing?

"Of course, there is a third option: Bush assenting to Reid's request and taking the pardon option off the table. That would be the best way to offer the American people the chance to finally learn the truth -- which after all, is what the president has repeatedly said he is after."

Tom DeFrank of the Daily News has more on the alleged estrangement of Bush and Cheney:

"The CIA leak scandal has peeled back the veil on the most closely held White House secret of all: the subtle but unmistakable erosion in the bond between President Bush and Vice President Cheney.

"Multiple sources close to Bush told the Daily News that while the vice president remains his boss' valued political partner and counselor, his clout has lessened - primarily as a result of issues arising from the Iraq war.

"'The relationship is not what it was,' a presidential counselor said. 'There has been some distance for some time.'

"A senior administration official termed any such suggestion 'categorically false.' "

In other words, more anonymous leaking stemming from an investigation into anonymous leaking.

John Dickerson serves up some reasons why Bush shouldn't fire Rove. Among them:

" You'll only encourage us . The nay-saying Washington establishment can never get enough. If Bush fires Rove, the journalists and wise men who have been calling for his head won't be satisfied. They'll be emboldened. There will be calls for more acts of dubious self-flagellation: a broader staff shakeup, a public session of mistake-admitting by Bush, a timetable for troop withdrawals from Iraq, and perhaps even makeup sessions with the French. 'They'll bank it and then want more,' says a senior administration official of those who want a Rove firing.

" The tumult will pass . The limbo period after the Libby indictment has contributed to the ethical stink surrounding the White House. The press asks the president or his spokesman about Rove every day, and the White House can only stonewall. That drives the president's poll numbers down. But once Fitzgerald closes shop without another indictment, the scandal will start to fade away. Sure, Rove's continued employment will be measured against Bush's previous righteous statements on government ethics. Clintonites will be rightfully smug. Democrats won't let the Rove case go, but they were going to attack him whether Bush fired him or not. If the nonpartisans in the country ever cared about Rove at all, most will go back to caring about the war in Iraq and gas and home-heating-oil prices. Those aren't issues that work well for Bush, but they're also ones that won't be improved by a Rove firing."