In Case of Civil War, What?

If sectarian violence continues to increase in Iraq, what will President Bush do?

Nobody knows, of course, because even as the public increasingly sees the situation in Iraq headed toward all-out civil war, Bush's official position is denial.

Just last week, ABC's Elizabeth Vargas tried repeatedly to get Bush to address the issue. "What is the policy if, in fact, a civil war should break out or the sectarian violence continues?" she asked. "Are you willing to sacrifice American lives to get the Sunnis and the Shiites to stop killing each other?

Bush's reply: "I don't buy your premise that there's going to be a civil war."

A few more back-and-forths later, Vargas asked: "So let me make sure I understand you. No matter what happens with the level of sectarian violence, the U.S. troops will stay there?"

Buth replied: "The U.S. troops will stay there so long as -- until the Iraqis can defend themselves. I mean, my policy has not changed. To summarize it, as the Iraqis stand up, we will stand down."

Richard Morin writes for washingtonpost.com this morning: "An overwhelming majority of the public believe fighting between Sunni and Shiite Muslims in Iraq will lead to civil war and half say the U.S. should begin withdrawing its forces from that violence-torn country, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll."

Last week's Gallup poll found that 73 percent of the public thinks a major civil war is likely -- and that 65 percent said the U.S. should withdraw some or all troops now.

Ronald Brownstein writes in the Los Angeles Times: "President Bush barreled straight ahead with old answers when ABC's Elizabeth Vargas asked him a new question about Iraq last week. And like any driver who missed a turn in the road, the president quickly found himself in a ditch. . . .

"[T]he president gave no hint he'd considered how the widening gulf between Sunni and Shiite might alter America's strategy. Instead, he summoned old sound bites, as if cueing them on tape."

Brownstein concludes: "If Iraq is morphing from a struggle against insurgents into something more like a civil war between Sunnis and Shiites, Bush's responses to Vargas raise more questions than they answer. What does 'chasing down terrorists' mean when neighbors are killing neighbors? And does training the Iraqi forces to 'stand up' point toward greater stability, or greater friction, when many Sunnis see the military as the weapon of the Shiites?"

Fareed Zakaria writes in Newsweek: "Washington tended to see Iraq through a prism of fantasy rather than reality. It imagined Iraq as a secular, educated society rather than one composed of three distinct communities. . . .