Cloudy Crystal Ball

Will Francine Busby win a congressional seat?

Will the Democrats recapture the House?

Is anyone other than reporters and politicians asking these questions?

There's been a lot of tea-leaf reading after this week's special election in the California district of convicted crook and yacht-lover Duke Cunningham. Busby, a Democrat and soccer mom, won 44 percent of the vote, but there were 14 Republican candidates. Since this wasn't enough to avoid a runoff, analysts are saying maybe this won't be such a big Democratic year after all.

To my mind, this is precisely the reason most media handicapping is hopeless when you're talking about 435 individual races. Cunningham has been disgraced, but he's not on the ballot. George Bush is pretty unpopular these days, but he's not on the ballot either. In most cases, the person on the ballot is your friendly neighborhood incumbent, who has a remarkable knack for getting reelected, even when people are in a throw-the-bums-out mood.

With Iraq a mess and the White House on the defensive, you might think this would be a good year for the out party. But the odds are still against the Democrats winning the House, says this WashPost storyWith Iraq a mess and the White House on the defensive, you might think this would be a good year for the out party. But the odds are still against the Democrats winning the House, says this WashPost story. And a key reason is gerrymandered districts that make a major turnover -- the Democrats need 15 seats -- very difficult.

This LAT poll has an interesting finding: "Republicans face the potential reemergence of a gender gap that Bush narrowed in his 2004 reelection. Although men split evenly when asked which party they intended to support in November, women preferred Democrats 57% to 31%, the survey found."

But again, those are generic numbers, and unless the Democrats can nationalize the election the way Newt & Co. did in 1994, it will be hard to build a tidal wave that sweeps out many incumbents.

Why do press people keep trying to predict what will happen in November? Well, you can't pop off about 2008 every day. And it's more fun than writing about the immigration deadlock. But this election will turn on whether the Democrats' best prospects (Patricia Madrid in New Mexico, Brad Ellsworth in Indiana, Ron Klein in Florida, Lois Murphy in Pennsylvania) -- in other words, a bunch of people you never heard of -- can win their individual contests. And that's awfully hard to figure out in April.

Guess who's sounding pessimistic about the GOP's chances this year? The WSJ editorial page:

"If Republicans lose control of Congress in November, they might want to look back at last Thursday as the day it was lost. That's when the big spenders among House Republicans blew up a deal between the leadership and rank-in-file to impose some modest spending discipline.

"Unlike the collapse of the immigration bill, this fiasco can't be blamed on Senate Democrats. This one is all about Republicans and their refusal to give up their power to spend money at will and pass out 'earmarks' like a bartender offering drinks on the house. The chief culprits are the House Appropriators, led by Committee Chairman Jerry Lewis of California and his 13 subcommittee chairmen known as 'cardinals.' If Republicans lose the House -- and they are well on their way -- Mr. Lewis deserves the moniker of the minority maker. . . .