Rudy's Choice

In the spring of 2001, I went up to the Hill and asked John Edwards why he couldn't just admit he was running for president.

I got the usual demurrals--"staying focused on being a good senator from North Carolina"-- even though he'd just been to Iowa. I knew, everyone knew, that Edwards was gearing up for a White House bid, but he refused to skirt the convention that you have to insist the thought has barely crossed your mind.

Which led me to formulate a rule: When they say they're not running, they are; but those who say they might run are probably looking for media attention and will opt out in the end, since if they were really running they would be forced to deny it.

What prompts these ruminations is Rudy Guiliani saying on Wednesday that he is "seriously considering" a presidential run. Those who think that the 9/11 hero would be a formidable candidate are forgetting about the 9/10 Rudy. Meaning, this is a guy who is pro-choice on abortion, pro-gay rights and moved in with a gay couple after a messy breakup with his wife that came as he was dating another woman. None of that is likely to sit well with Republican primary voters (although Giuliani would be a strong general-election candidate with appeal to Democrats if he could ever win the GOP nod).

I don't know what Giuliani, who's making all kinds of money, will ultimately do, but I suspect he'll enjoy the fruits of being a potential candidate without ultimately taking the plunge in a primary that would be very problematic for him.

Some blogosphere reaction, beginning with Nathan at Moral Contradictions :

"Big Daddy Weave has an excellent post up about how adultery is becoming more accepted. He details how both Rudy Giuliani and John McCain left their wives for different women. McCain left his wife after she raised their children while he was a POW in Vietnam and married a 25 year old woman and used her family's money to launch his career. BDW asks 'After impeaching Bill Clinton - are the Republicans ready to nominate a confessed adulterer???? Will the Evangelical-wing of the GOP support the candidacy of a cheating man???' With all this hype of saving marriage from homosexuals, maybe efforts should be focused on strengthening traditional marriage. How strong is marriage these days when folks like Rudy Guiliani have been married four times?" (Actually, I believe it's three.)

Ankle Biting Pundits sees Rudy having little chance:

"Giuliani is a true anomaly. But for 9/11, no one would be talking about his prospective presidential aspirations. That means--let's be clear--that the present Giuliani boomlet is a validation of his leadership style, not his ideology, which is decidedly 'New York' on social issues and, I can say with confidence, would never see him through to the GOP nomination."

Grumpy Old Man says the Washington Monthly notes that "three of the GOP front-runners have sexual skeletons in their closet: McCain, Giuliani, and Gingrich, and wonders how (a) the evangelical part of the GOP base and (b) the Dems, recalling the Clinton impeachment, will react. It's a fair question. To a degree, I adhere to the view that in evaluating politicians as politicians, as with artists as artists, we should separate different spheres of their lives. Picasso may not have been nice to his women, but he did some amazing paintings. Hamilton was a player, but he set the Treasury on strong foundations. Martin Luther King was, too, but he still gave a great speech."

Sometimes it only takes one determined lawmaker to provide checks and balances, as the Philadelphia Inquirer reports:

"Ending a month long dispute, Sen. Arlen Specter (R., Pa.) said yesterday that he and the White House had reached an agreement calling for some judicial scrutiny of a wide-ranging electronic surveillance program aimed at terrorists.