Feeling a Draft?

"Dick Gephardt, 15%

"John Kerry, 13%

"John Edwards, 8%

"Al Sharpton, 5%

"Howard Dean, 2%

"In fact, throughout 2002 and much of 2003, Joe Lieberman led in virtually every poll. Did that mean that Lieberman had some deep base of support among Democratic primary voters? Of course not. All this reflected was the fact that Lieberman had the highest name recognition of anyone in the field by virtue of his status as the Vice Presidential candidate in 2000.

"Most primary voters don't really start to pay attention until much closer to the election. They don't know who many of the candidates are, and even when they do, they often don't know much about them.

"Take Rudy Giuliani, for example. He polls well because most people know who he is. But I suspect most Republican voters don't know very much about the guy, and the more they learn, the more likely they will be to reconsider their support. Conversely, most Republican primary voters don't know who Mitt Romney is. But, like Howard Dean in 2004, Romney may well emerge as a real contender as we get closer to the actual primaries.

"The Democratic side is even more interesting. Four out of the five candidates topping the polls are people who have significant name recognition. Gore, Kerry, and Edwards are all former national candidates. And Hillary is, well, Hillary. But notice that the least well known (by far) among the five, Barack Obama, is already polling at 23%. That strikes me as far more significant than any other data point in the poll."

Marshall Wittmann, the Bull Moose blogger, who has worked for the Christian Coalition, McCain and the DLC, is jumping to Joe Lieberman, and that merits a NYT story.

Speaking of '08, Newt has a unique approach, as Jason Zengerle observes:

"Most presidential aspirants are being coy at this point about whether they're actually running. But Newt Gingrich has taken the coy formula and mixed it with healthy doses of condescension and grandiosity. From a Fortune profile of the nascent candidate:

"' I'm going to tell you something, and whether or not it's plausible given the world you come out of is your problem,' he tells Fortune. 'I am not 'running' for president. I am seeking to create a movement to win the future by offering a series of solutions so compelling that if the American people say I have to be president, it will happen.

"We're not worthy, we're not worthy."