The Hardest Sell

* Will he describe how his view of the situation in Iraq has changed over time, if at all? Will he address the concern that he has been in a state of denial?

Bush faces two not entirely overlapping problems tomorrow night: One is that most Americans don't believe him any more; the other is that most Americans don't support his plan. Only if he can make some headway on the first problem will he ever make any on the second.

Poll Watch

So who will Bush be speaking to tomorrow?

Susan Page writes in USA Today: "President Bush will outline his 'new way forward' in Iraq Wednesday to a nation that overwhelmingly opposes sending more U.S. troops and is increasingly skeptical that the war can be won. . . .

"Those surveyed oppose the idea of increased troop levels by 61%-36%. Approval of the job Bush is doing in Iraq has sunk to 26%, a record low.

"Among key findings:

"·Nearly half of those surveyed say the United States can't achieve its goals in Iraq regardless of how many troops it sends. One in four say U.S. goals can be achieved only with an increase in troop numbers.

"·Eight in 10 say the war has gone worse than the Bush administration expected. Of those people, 53% say Bush deserves 'a great deal' of blame; 41% place a great deal of blame on Iraqi political leaders."

Here's more from Gallup. A majority of respondents support either an immediate withdrawal (15 percent) or a withdrawal in 12 months (39 percent). That's compared to 31 percent who support maintaining troops until the job is done and 12 percent who prefer sending more troops.

The Pitch

Michael Abramowitz writes in The Washington Post: "President Bush yesterday began promoting his plan to send more troops to Iraq, bringing more than 30 Republican senators to the White House as part of a major campaign to rally the American people behind another effort to stabilize the country.

"Senators who met with Bush said the president made it clear that he is planning to add as many as 20,000 U.S. troops to help quell violence in Baghdad. They also said the president is arguing that his new plan has a better chance for success than past plans because of a greater willingness of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to commit Iraqi forces against all perpetrators of violence, including Shiite militias. . . .

"Even administration officials and friendly Republicans said the bar is much higher for Bush than with past speeches on Iraq, given the widespread disenchantment over the war and the deep skepticism, shared even by some Republicans, that more troops are part of the answer. . . .