Bush's Immigration Problem

You might be forgiven today for thinking, as you listen to President Bush's speech about immigration, that you (or he) had entered a time warp.

Bush's big goal today is wooing Republicans in Congress by talking tough on border security and adding more punitive elements to his proposals for undocumented workers.

But wait -- don't the Democrats control Congress now?

They do, of course, but when it comes to the potential overhaul of the nation's immigration laws, Bush is engaged in a delicate dance.

Immigration is possibly the only significant political issue where the general outlines of Bush's policy proposals engender more support from Democrats than from Republicans. So his immediate goal is trying to get a critical mass of the members of his own party to go along with him.

If he can accomplish that, the president will presumably swing back to gather up the Democrats -- assuming he hasn't gone too far in appeasing Republicans for the Democrats to stomach.

The chances of all this happening are slim. Delicate dances have never been Bush's strong suit. Futhermore, this one may require more political clout than Bush has left.

The Coverage

Massimo Calabresi writes in Time: "President Bush returns to the Mexico border at Yuma, Arizona, Monday to reprise last year's role as buggy-riding border sheriff. And as with every piece of White House theater, this one has a very specific audience in mind: the anti-immigration right wing of the Republican party. It is this deeply skeptical crowd Bush must win over if he is to get the last potential domestic policy achievement of his presidency: 'comprehensive immigration reform.' And, with Congress' summer recess and the 2008 presidential primaries approaching, time is running out."

While Bush's latest plan "does offer a path to citizenship for the millions of illegal immigrants already in the country, it sets high hurdles: They would be sent to the end of the line of those applying for citizenship, would have to pay heavy fines for the years they have been in the country, would have to show that they have held a job while here, pay full back-taxes on their earnings and pass an English exam. And in a major departure from U.S. immigration policy as it has existed since 1965, the plan would do away with citizenship for their family members."

John D. McKinnon and Sarah Lueck write in the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) that the White House "wants at least 25 Republicans to back Mr. Bush's immigration proposals in the Senate, so as to generate bipartisan momentum for the bill in the House, where divisions are even wider. But many Republicans have demanded proof of improved border security before they consider Mr. Bush's priorities. . . .

"During his one-day visit to Yuma, Mr. Bush is expected to argue that he has lived up to his side of the bargain by beefing up security forces at the border."

McKinnon and Leuck write that several factors "appear to be working in Mr. Bush's favor." For one: "Immigration is emerging as a key indicator of whether the White House and Republicans can work with newly empowered Democrats in Congress."