Cheney, By Proxy

"Even if Bush wanted to marginalize Cheney, and there's no evidence that he does, he would have to remove all the Cheney loyalists from the defense secretary on down and still wake up to Cheney sitting in the West Wing every morning. Only Congress can remove a vice president, and only then for 'high crimes and misdemeanors.'

"Cheney seems happy to swim along with an approval rating lower than Bush. He isn't running for office. He's running the country."

About Those Loyalists

Jeff Stein writes for Congressional Quarterly: "The same top Bush administration neoconservatives who leap-frogged Washington's foreign policy establishment to topple Saddam Hussein nearly pulled off a similar coup in U.S.-China relations -- creating the potential of a nuclear war over Taiwan, a top aide to former Secretary of State Colin Powell says.

"Lawrence B. Wilkerson, the U.S. Army colonel who was Powell's chief of staff through two administrations, said in little-noted remarks early last month that 'neocons' in the top rungs of the administration quietly encouraged Taiwanese politicians to move toward a declaration of independence from mainland China -- an act that the communist regime has repeatedly warned would provoke a military strike."

The Libby Sentencing

Former vice presidential chief of staff Scooter Libby will be sentenced tomorrow and the suspense is twofold: 1) What will the sentence be?; and, 2) If it calls for prison time, will Libby be allowed to remain free pending appeal?

The second question is crucial. If Libby is incarcerated immediately, it would suddenly increase the pressure on Bush from Libby's defenders to grant him a pardon.

Elizabeth de la Vega writes for Tomdispatch.com, a project of the Nation Institute, that prison is almost a certainty: "Everyone in the case thus far -- the probation officer, the defense attorneys, and the prosecutors -- agrees that the base offense level for Libby is 15 to 21 months. The Special Counsel is arguing, however, that, under the federal sentencing guidelines, the court should increase this range because Libby's perjury and obstruction of justice interfered with an investigation into possible violations of the Intelligence Identities Protection Act and the Espionage Act. If the court accepts this argument, Libby could receive a sentence ranging from 30 to 37 months.

"The defense, on the other hand, is arguing that the judge should not follow the guidelines at all. Instead, they say, Libby should merely be sentenced to probation because: (1) he has an outstanding record of government service; (2) he will lose his law license; (3) he and his family have suffered, financially and otherwise, as a result of the prosecution; (4) his conduct was an aberration; and (5) he is unlikely to commit crimes in the future.

"Given that, as the government points out, Libby used his position in the White House to commit the crime for which he was convicted; that he has not used his law license for many years and would likely never have to again; that the families of all defendants' suffer and that, unlike most defendants, Libby has a massive legal defense trust fund; that he committed his crime not once, but four times over a period of many months; and that doesn't think he did anything wrong, I suspect the judge will not be giving Libby probation. Indeed -- for what it's worth -- I consider it far more likely that he will receive a sentence of approximately 30 months."

And the law on letting convicted felons free on appeal is pretty clear: Unless Judge Reggie Walton is ready to acknowledge that some of his legal decisions during the trial are likely to be reversed, he would appear obliged to remand Libby to custody.

The last White House official to be convicted of felonies -- that would be David H. Safavian-- was allowed to remain free pending appeal because District Court Judge Paul L. Friedman agreed "that a number of the issues raised in the pre-trial motions, the motion for judgment of acquittal, and motion for a new trial are substantial and some are without precedent in this Circuit. If some of these issues were decided in Mr. Safavian's favor on appeal, a new trial likely would be required."

Quid Pro Quo?

John W. Dean writes in his column for Findlaw.com: "If Watergate had any lesson, it was that when someone connected to the White House is heading for prison, it is dangerous for the president or those close to him to even think about -- not to mention talk about -- clemency.