Kabuki at Camp Cupcake

"Recent reports, however, challenge the 'bottom-up' approach and question whether Iraq's national government -- particularly under Maliki's leadership -- is up to the task of achieving reconciliation.

"A draft report by the Government Accountability Office, the investigative arm of Congress, said that Iraq has met only three of 18 congressionally mandated benchmarks for political and military progress. A National Intelligence Estimate last month offered a bleak forecast of Iraq's future, saying the political situation would become 'more precarious' over the next 12 months.

"The report also warned that 'bottom up' reconciliation could do more harm than good to Iraq. It concluded that strengthening provincial groups, such as the Sunni tribes who increasingly have fought al Qaida in Iraq, could weaken the national government.

"While Bush has expressed faith in Maliki's government, a draft report by the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad said government is plagued by corruption and has stymied investigations of its political friends."

Foreshadowing

Many of the undercurrents of yesterday's visit were foreshadowed in Saturday's New York Times, in which David E. Sanger wrote: "President Bush, marshaling his arguments to maintain current troop levels in Iraq, has approved the acceleration of a new program to intensify economic assistance directly to Sunni Arab regions where former insurgents have joined American forces in fighting extremist Sunni groups, senior American officials say.

"The move, which has been gathering momentum for several months, was discussed at length on Friday at a Pentagon session attended by Mr. Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and senior American commanders in Iraq, the officials said."

The Pentagon presentation also included "lengthy descriptions from the Joint Chiefs about how the increase in forces is unsustainable beyond spring without extending the tours of forces already in Iraq. Several aides to Mr. Bush have said in recent weeks that such extensions are so politically unpalatable that they are not under consideration unless an emergency breaks out requiring the use of American forces elsewhere in the world.

"But Mr. Bush, they said, is also unlikely to wait until April to begin the drawdown. If he does so, he would have to pull troops out at the same pace at which he sent them this year, about a brigade a month, the officials said.

"By beginning a drawdown slightly earlier, the officials say, Mr. Bush would both maximize his flexibility and avoid having to stick to a strict timeline for withdrawal, which the president has said in the past would signal to enemy forces exactly when and how quickly American forces would begin to leave."

What Bush Heard

It appears Bush pretty much heard what he wanted to hear from pretty much everyone he talked to yesterday -- with one exception.

The PBS Newshour quotes Capt. Lee Hemming, a Marine helicopter pilot in Anbar, telling Bush at the end of a briefing: "Our training time back at home is very limited. We've found ourselves taking post-deployment leave at the same time conducting pre-deployment training. And then stress on the families, year after year only being home for five months, it's become a little harder each time to get in that normal training back in the United States."

Massimo Calabresi writes in Time: "As the room waited to see how the President would react, Hemming said he would welcome any questions or comments. Bush looked across the room at him and said, 'Morale. How's morale?' 'It's very good sir,' said Hemming."