Bush Wins Again

Despite everything, President Bush continues to be able to set the terms of the debate in Washington.

Consider how the talk now is mostly about when to end the "surge" -- not when to end the war. How did that happen?

It's a victory for Bush and his attempts to buy time. In time, there will either be progress in Iraq -- or the war will become someone else's problem.

In December, after a Republican electoral rout and a devastating report from the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, the debate shifted briefly to how -- not when -- to withdraw. But then Bush announced his surge of troops -- and asked the press and the public to give it time. In May, it seemed like September would be a decisive deadline, with some Republicans agreeing that, barring significant political progress in Iraq, they would join Democrats in demanding withdrawal.

Now, however, the big news is that Bush's commander in Iraq, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, is willing to contemplate a possible drawdown of one brigade early next year -- if the circumstances are right. That's one combat brigade out of the five that make up the surge; one out of 20 such brigades in country in total; or less than 5,000 of the 168,000 troops currently in Iraq.

And this is the plan despite the fact that a majority of the U.S. public, according to the polls, favors an immediate or gradual withdrawal of all troops from Iraq -- and has for well over a year.

Nevertheless, Petraeus has apparently emboldened congressional Republicans to stand firm behind the president, and has put Democratic leaders in a tizzy. So unless those quavering Dems suddenly grow some spine, it looks like there won't even be any serious debate in Washington about a complete withdrawal until next spring or so. And at that point, of course, the race to succeed Bush will so dominate the news that he can stand back and let others talk themselves blue about it while he stalls some more and dreams of Texas.

The Coverage

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Robin Wright and Jonathan Weisman write in The Washington Post: "Army Gen. David H. Petraeus has indicated a willingness to consider a drawdown of one brigade of between 3,500 and 4,500 U.S. troops from Iraq early next year, with more to follow over the next months based on conditions on the ground, according to a senior U.S. official.

"The pullouts would be contingent on the ability of U.S. and Iraqi forces to sustain what the administration heralds as recent gains in security and to make further gains in stabilizing Iraq. . . .

"Administration officials say the president will make the final decision about the overall strategy in Iraq, but they suggested that Bush is unlikely to depart significantly from recommendations made by top military officials."

David E. Sanger and David S. Cloud write in the New York Times that Petraeus "has told President Bush that he wants to maintain heightened troop levels in Iraq well into next year to reduce the risk of military setbacks, but could accept the pullback of roughly 4,000 troops beginning in January, in part to assuage critics in Congress, according to senior administration and military officials.

"General Petraeus's view is considered overly cautious by some other senior military officials and some members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, officials said. But they said it reflected his concern that the security gains made so far in Baghdad, Anbar Province and other areas were fragile and easily reversed.