Going It Alone on Iran

"Nervousness about US intentions. . . . has been heightened by speculation that Mr Bush could treat Iran's support for Shia militias in Iraq as a casus belli. A Senate motion, co-sponsored by Mr Lieberman, calls for the Revolutionary Guards to be designated a terrorist organisation. That could provide the president with the political cover to bomb training camps within Iran.

"The calculation, if you could call it that, would be that such attacks would destabilise Mr Ahmadi-Nejad and, in the best case, see him toppled. Logic suggests the reverse: an upsurge of nationalist sentiment would bolster support for the regime. For some people, though, logic does not count."

And Stephens concludes: "The US has yet to play its highest card: an offer, comparable to that made to, and accepted by, North Korea, of a comprehensive refashioning of the strategic relationship between the US and Iran. Unless and until that bargain is explored, it will never be clear whether Tehran could be persuaded to eschew the nuclear course."

Oil Watch

The White House move sparked fears that sent oil prices toward record highs. So what would war do?

Steven Mufson writes in The Washington Post: "A U.S. military strike against Iran would have dire consequences in petroleum markets, say a variety of oil industry experts, many of whom think the prospect of pandemonium in those markets makes U.S. military action unlikely despite escalating economic sanctions imposed by the Bush administration. . . .

"Oil traders said that even if the chances of military conflict with Iran were small, the huge run-up in oil prices that would result encourages some speculators and investment funds to bid up the price of oil, adding a premium of $3 to $15 a barrel."

But Mufson's analysis leaves out a key part of the equation. Skyrocketing oil prices would be terrible for the American public -- but not necessarily for the oil industry. Oil industry profit margins go up-- a lot -- when oil prices rise.

Democracy Watch

Iranian dissident Akbar Ganji explains, in a Washington Post op-ed, what's wrong with Bush's idea of funding Iranian pro-democracy groups: "The Bush administration may be striving to help Iranian democrats, but any Iranian who seeks American dollars will not be recognized as a democrat by his or her fellow citizens."

Haunted by Katrina

James Gerstenzang and Peter Wallsten write in the Los Angeles Times: "Wrapping his arms around newly homeless victims, greeting grimy firefighters and predicting a 'better day ahead,' President Bush on Thursday brought a dose of compassion to fire-ravaged Southern California.

"But in touring by air and foot a region still ablaze in crisis, Bush also confronted a legacy of mismanagement in the face of natural disaster -- his administration's breakdown in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. It is a legacy that haunts Bush and his party as Democrats prepare to make 'competence' a central theme of next year's elections.

"Bush and his aides repeatedly sought to convey a sense of efficiency and the image of a leader who both cared and was in command. . . .

"He invoked the contrast with Katrina most directly when he heaped praise on Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger for his leadership. Bush's plaudits for a fellow Republican appeared to be an indirect dig at Louisiana's Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco.