Is Anyone Listening?

"At the same time, Bush backed off a threat he made last month to find ways to reverse earmarks in a massive omnibus spending bill for the current fiscal year. 'The president has decided he needs to give Congress a very clear indication of what he's going to do,' White House press secretary Dana Perino said. 'The president will not go retrospectively back to the earmarks that were in the omnibus, but he will take these actions for 2009 appropriations.' The 2009 fiscal year begins October 1, 2008."

Baker explains: "The earmarks initiative attempts to continue recasting Bush as a tough fiscal conservative after spending policies mushroomed the size of government in the first six years of his presidency and alienated many in his party."

Trust the People?

Michael Abramowitz writes in The Washington Post: "Tonight's State of the Union address by President Bush had its origins in a conversation between the president and his small crew of speechwriters in late spring or early summer last year. As the speechwriters tell it, Bush called them into the Oval Office and told them he was interested in giving a speech about his governing philosophy.

"The theme was 'trust people to make wise decisions and empower them with better options,' said Marc Thiessen, a onetime aide to former senator Jesse Helms (R-N.C.). 'There never was really an opportunity to give it,' he added, 'and when the State of the Union came around, it just seemed to fit perfectly.'"

But is this really the right time for that message? As I wrote in my Jan. 15 column, Nation Wants a New Direction, polls show that an overwhelming majority of Americans -- 80 percent --- are eager to put Bush and his presidency behind them.

Poll Watch

What a long strange descent it's been.

The Associated Press looks at Bush's Gallup Poll approval ratings from around the time of each State of the Union speech. From 2002 to present, there's been a steady decline: 84, 60, 53, 51,43, 36 -- and now 32.

Iraq Watch

Abramowitz writes in The Post: "Perhaps the biggest question Bush faces about Iraq is whether he will go beyond this plan, under which U.S. troop levels are scheduled to fall from 160,000 to 130,000 by midsummer. Some generals in the Pentagon hope to pull several more combat brigades out of Iraq by the end of the Bush term to ease the stress on the Army caused by the conflicts there and in Afghanistan.

"Aides said Bush will not give answers about potential further troop reductions during the State of the Union speech, preferring to wait until he hears a recommendation from Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, this spring.

"But they said it is possible Bush may push back a bit against the Pentagon, making it clear -- as he did recently when he met with Petraeus in Kuwait -- that he is willing to stop the drawdown if he sees a security need.

"'He doesn't want to backslide,' said one of the administration's top officials on Iraq, who would discuss internal deliberations only on the condition of anonymity. The official said Bush wants to put Iraq 'on a sustainable basis' for the next president -- and will be careful about risking any recent security gains by leaving too few troops in place."

AIDS Watch

Note to my colleagues covering the speech: Bush will likely describe his $30 billion proposal for combating AIDS overseas as a doubling of federal funding. But it's not. As the program's own Web site makes clear, funding is currently $6 billion a year. So spending $30 billion over five years would simply maintain spending at current levels. (Actually, it would be a budget cut, if you consider inflation.)