Bush's Simplistic Vision

"Sadrists and some analysts are portraying the offensive as a political move by the rival Islamic Supreme Council to liquidate Sadr's movement before provincial elections.

"A law covering provincial elections went into effect last week after U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney strong-armed the presidency council into allowing it to pass. While the Islamic Supreme Council is more powerful than Sadr is in much of the country, Sadr is much more popular among poor Shiites. Provincial elections could undercut the Supreme Council's influence in the south, and many see the government offensive as a move to thwart Sadr's political ambitions."

Tina Susman writes in the Los Angeles Times that "a fourth day of ferocious rocket and mortar attacks in and around the U.S.-guarded Green Zone, home to the U.S. Embassy and most Iraqi government offices, underscored the anger among Shiite fighters who believe the United States and Prime Minister Nouri Maliki are working to cripple Sadr's movement before local elections planned for this fall."

James Glanz and Steven Lee Myers write in the New York Times: "Although Mr. Bush praised the Iraqi government for leading the fighting, it also appeared that the Iraqi government was pursuing its own agenda, calling the battles a fight against 'criminal' elements but seeking to marginalize the Mahdi Army.

"The Americans share the Iraqi government's hostility toward what they call rogue elements of the Mahdi Army but will also be faced with the consequences if the battles among Shiite factions erupt into more widespread unrest.

"The violence underscored the fragile nature of the security improvements partly credited to the American troop increase that began last year. Officials have acknowledged that a cease-fire called by Mr. Sadr last August has contributed to the improvements."

I called attention yesterday to two Time magazine articles that today seem even more prescient and are worth mentioning again. Charles Crain noted how chief military spokesman Maj. Gen. Kevin Bergner (" Bush's Baghdad Mouthpiece") refused to say "whether the Americans would become involved more directly if the Iraqi government could not complete its Basra operation. 'I would say,' he said, 'that's a very hypothetical question at this time.'" But, Crain wrote: "It is also the question of the hour. If the violence continues to intensify and the Iraqi government cannot finish what it started then the U.S. must choose whether to throw its troops into the fight."

And Darrin Mortenson wrote: "If the U.S. decides to actively go after the Shi'ite forces in the south, it would mean reopening a southern front where American forces once fought some of the Iraq war's fiercest battles against Sadr but now have only a shadow presence. That would involve draining the concentration of surge troops around Baghdad and the Sunni triangle. It might even require more troop extensions or additional deployments to hold ground and maintain modest gains. Moving against the Shi'ite strongholds could then open opportunities for the Sunni fighters of al-Qaeda to strike Iraqi and U.S. targets in the Sunni triangle as the American heat turns south."

Rhetoric and Reality

Peter Baker writes in The Washington Post: "The images from Baghdad and Basra bristled with explosions, burning buildings, angry street protests, rocket smoke wafting from the Green Zone. The words from Dayton were 'remarkable' and 'victory' and 'rebirth.'

"'Normalcy,' President Bush said, 'is returning back to Iraq.'

"The juxtaposition of image and sound crisply illustrated Bush's challenge in pleading for more patience from his own weary public for a war that has now surpassed five years and 4,000 American dead. . . .

"Meanwhile, Bush advisers in Washington held a series of meetings to assess what appeared to be a rapidly deteriorating situation in southern Iraq as three rival Shiite militias battled for political power. A decisive victory for Iraqi security forces could bolster Bush's position heading into congressional hearings on the war next month, they said, but they expressed nervousness that the operation would upset a fragile cease-fire with radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr that has been a major factor in falling violence in recent months."