No Closer to Success in Iraq

Erica Goode and Michael R. Gordon write in the New York Times: "Sharp fighting broke out in the Sadr City district of Baghdad on Sunday as American and Iraqi troops sought to control neighborhoods used by Shiite militias to fire rockets and mortars into the nearby Green Zone.

"But the operation failed to stop the attacks on the heavily fortified zone, headquarters for Iraq's central government and the American Embassy here. By day's end, at least two American soldiers had been killed and 17 wounded in the zone, one of the worst daily tolls for the American military in the most heavily protected part of Baghdad. Altogether, at least three American soldiers were killed and 31 wounded in attacks in Baghdad on Sunday, and at least 20 Iraqis were killed, mostly in Sadr City. . . .

"The Green Zone attacks were, symbolically at least, a sign that forces hostile to the United States are still able to strike at the American nerve center and seat of government power in the capital of Iraq.

"The attacks were sure to feature prominently in the scheduled hearings, giving ammunition to Democratic critics who argue that Iraq is not making progress, as well as Republicans who say it would be foolish to reduce the American troop presence in Iraq quickly."

Bloomberg's Ken Fireman points out that Petraeus last September specfically "assured Congress that Iraqis would be able to end the bloody rivalry between Shiite groups in the oil-rich south by themselves."

Instead, Maliki's offensive required U.S. military support, including air strikes, and still only ground to a bloody standoff. "Petraeus, the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, likely will have to explain why his optimism proved misplaced when he returns to Congress this week to defend his call for a pause in withdrawing troops once soldiers sent for last year's 'surge' of reinforcements are brought home," Fireman writes.

Robin Wright writes in The Washington Post: "A new assessment of U.S. policy in Iraq by the same experts who advised the original Iraq Study Group concludes that political progress is 'so slow, halting and superficial' and political fragmentation 'so pronounced' that the United States is no closer to being able to leave Iraq than it was a year ago.

"The experts were reassembled by the U.S. Institute of Peace, which convened the congressionally mandated Iraq Study Group, a high-level panel that assessed U.S. policy in Iraq and offered recommendations in 2006. The new report predicts that lasting political development could take five to 10 years of 'full, unconditional commitment' to Iraq, but also cautions that future progress may not be worth the 'massive' human and financial costs to the United States. . . .

"The report outlines two options if Washington seeks to reduce its Iraq commitment. The first option would peg U.S. engagement to Iraq's agreement to decentralize power to its provinces, leaving the Baghdad government in charge of national defense and revenue distribution only. If Iraq fails to act, however, Washington should 'cut its losses' and work out a withdrawal schedule; if Iraq complies, the United States should maintain a reduced troop presence to train the army and police.

"'Reductions in troop levels will likely result in some degree of chaos and violence no matter what,' the report warns. 'The decentralized, fragmented political dynamic in Iraq cannot be reversed.' Creation of a strong central government that can take on security is unlikely to happen in the time left for the current expanded U.S. military presence.

"The second option is unconditional redeployment of all U.S. forces in Iraq, possibly beginning in January and completed by 2011. At the same time, however, Washington would build an 'enhanced' military presence in the region and stronger regional alliances, while providing political support for the Baghdad government."

Retired Gen. William Odom testified in a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing last week: "The surge is prolonging instability, not creating the conditions for unity as the president claims." Bush "has placed the United States astride several civil wars," Odom said.