One Thing After Another

Today is one of those days when public opinion and expert analysis seem to coalesce around a common theme: President Bush has made a terrible mess of things.

The latest data points include a poll that shows the public is profoundly unhappy about the economy and continued U.S. involvement in Iraq, a study from the Pentagon's premier military educational institute that describes the Iraq war as "a major debacle" whose outcome "is in doubt," and a government audit disclosing that the Bush administration lacks a comprehensive plan to combat terrorism in the parts of Pakistan where al-Qaeda is regenerating its ability to attack the United States.

As usual, of course, none of this permeates the Bush Bubble. When asked yesterday whether he saw any end in sight in Iraq, he responded: "So long as I'm the president, my measure of success is victory -- and success."

A Soured Public

Jennifer Agiesta and Jon Cohen write in The Washington Post: "The public's ratings of the national economy continue to sour, with assessments deteriorating faster than at any point in Washington Post-ABC News polling. Views on the Iraq war have also turned more negative, with six in 10 now rejecting the notion that the United States needs to win there to effectively battle terrorism.

"The economy and the Iraq war are the top two issues on voters' minds, according to the new Post-ABC poll, and worsening opinions of both may dampen GOP hopes for the November elections. . . .

"[M]ore than six in 10 say that the [Iraq] conflict is not integral to the success of U.S. anti-terrorism efforts. That is the most people to reject what is one of the Bush administration's central contentions and a core part of presumed GOP presidential nominee John McCain's stand on the issue.

"And for the first time since President Bush ordered additional troops to Iraq early last year, the number of Americans saying the United States is not making significant progress toward restoring civil order there has risen. Negative views of the war had eased steadily from late 2006 through early March of this year, but 57 percent in the new poll said efforts in Iraq have stalled, up six points.

"Moreover, while Bush remains committed to keeping more than 100,000 U.S. troops in Iraq through the rest of his presidency, 56 percent of Americans say the United States should withdraw its military forces to avoid further casualties. This has been the majority view since January 2007."

Here are the complete poll results.

What's particularly amazing to me is that even when asked a question that incorporates a pro-war assumption, the public still overwhelmingly favors withdrawal.

Given these options -- "Do you think the United States should keep its military forces in Iraq until civil order is restored there, even if that means continued U.S. military casualties" or "Do you think the United States should withdraw its military forces from Iraq in order to avoid further U.S. military casualties, even if that means civil order is not restored there?" -- 56 percent chose withdrawal, compared to 41 percent who think the troops should stay.

But the notion that keeping troops in Iraq will eventually lead to civil order may very well be a fantasy; indeed, there is a persuasive case to be made that keeping troops there is delaying national reconciliation -- while fueling anti-American rage and keeping our soldiers in harm's way.