What Are They Up To Now?

"Vice President Dick Cheney, many U.S. government officials dealing with nonproliferation and the U.S. intelligence community reportedly favored releasing the materials."

Jonathan Karl reported for ABC News: "A senior Administration official said today that this intelligence was released now to strengthen talks now under way between the U.S. and North Korea about its nuclear program. But senior State Department officials wanted this information to remain secret, and feared that their talks with North Korea may now be doomed."

Bill Powell writes for Time: "Bush has tried pretty much everything to get North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il to come out of his cage. He has tried to coerce him with economic sanctions and schoolboy bluster--a policy course that ended on in the autumn of 2006, when Kim tested a nuclear weapon, precisely the opposite of the result Bush intended. Since then, the administration has tried bribery, offering blandishments like food and free fuel oil in hopes that in return North Korea would stand down its nuclear program. Kim has responded a bit--his nuclear reactor at Yongbyon, which produced the fissile material for the North's estimated eight to 10 nuclear bombs--is slowly being shut down. But Kim has refused to detail all the other components of his nuclear program, including an alleged uranium enrichment effort, and he has continued to sell North Korean nuclear expertise into a buyer's market of rogue states.

"Exasperated, the administration yesterday unveiled North Korea policy version 3.0. Bush is now trying to shame North Korea into complying with what it had agreed to do in talks with the U.S. and four other negotiating partners (China, Russia, Japan and South Korea). . . .

"There were reasons for the seven months of silence. Bush administration officials say they were worried that Syria might start a new war in the Middle East if they were publicly fingered after the attack. . . .

"No. The major reason for the silence, say former administration officials and Asian diplomats, was an ongoing struggle over the Bush administration's North Korea policy. The State Department, led by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, the U.S. point man for North Korea talks, still believe the only sensible path is the one they have been on for the last two years: trying, oh so patiently, to come to a deal with Kim that will at least eliminate his regime's plutonium program and the weapons it produced. Everything else, they believe, is secondary, a 'sideshow,' says a South Korean diplomat.

"Set against them are the North Korea skeptics, led by Vice President Dick Cheney, who believe North Korea has no intention of giving up its nukes, no matter what diplomatic agreements it signs. . . .

"The hawks were delighted with yesterday's presentation about the Syrian connection, hoping that the North will be so angered by it that Kim will abandon the six-party talks, bringing down the curtain on what Bolton and others believe has been a feckless effort by the State Department. But administration officials insist they don't expect that to happen. They believe North Korea 3.0 -- the 'shame on you' policy -- may pay off. 'I doubt they're walking away,' says one diplomat involved in the talks."

Here's more on how it might help the negotiations from Janine Zacharia and Jeff Bliss of Bloomberg: "The question of North Korea's nuclear assistance to Syria has dogged negotiators for months, threatening to scuttle a diplomatic effort involving China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the U.S. The countries are trying to get North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program in exchange for improved political ties and economic assistance.

"The U.S. declaration of North Korea's proliferation may obviate the need for a North Korean disclosure, almost four months overdue, improving the chances for talks to proceed on dismantling the program. Chief U.S. negotiator Christopher Hill has been searching for a way out of the impasse."

And here's more on how it could hurt, from AFP: "Although Washington has made clear that the diplomatic initiative will continue, the serious accusation levelled against North Korea would require President George W. Bush's administration to impose such high verification standards on denuclearization efforts that Pyongyang may just walk away from the deal, according to the experts."

Unanswered Questions

Matthew Lee and Anne Gearan of the Associated Press ask a key question: "Why should US be trusted on North Korea-Syria claims?. . . . The Bush administration has a spotty record when it comes to keeping tabs on nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs inside closed nations."