Pumping Up the Anxiety

"'[D]espite what you may be hearing from Congress, despite what you may be hearing from others in the administration who might be saying force isn't on the table, that we're serious.' As for an Israeli strike on Iran, she said: 'I certainly don't think that we should do anything but support them.'"

The Los Angeles Times editorial board writes: "Israel and the United States are starting to look like two anxious children trying to decide how to deal with a schoolyard bully, Iran. Each appears to be whispering encouragement to the other to go kick the bully in the shins, but each is so terrified of the consequences that neither wants to go first.

"President Bush telegraphed this dangerous diplomatic gambit to the media Wednesday when he was asked about the recent spate of reports that military action against Iran, by either Israel or the U.S. and before the end of Bush's term, is under discussion. . . . The unmistakable signal is that Bush not only won't discourage Israel from striking at Iranian nuclear targets but would support Israel should Prime Minister Ehud Olmert decide to bomb."

Growing Odds of War

Roula Khalaf, Daniel Dombey and Tobias Buck write in the Financial Times: "Less than a year ago, diplomats in the Middle East were taking bets on the likelihood of a US military attack on Iran, with some assessing it at higher than 50 per cent.

"Those odds subsided after the National Intelligence Estimate, the co-ordinated view of US intelligence agencies, concluded in December that Iran had halted its weapons programme in 2003.

"But the betting about a strike on Iran started again recently.

"As Tehran has accelerated its uranium enrichment programme instead of suspending it, speculation has mounted that Israel is preparing to do the job itself, possibly before November's US presidential election. . . .

"Given the limited damage likely to be inflicted on Iran, and the risk of provoking a wider war at a time when oil prices are already sky high, such threats may be designed primarily to make the world nervous and to toughen diplomatic resolve.

"Or perhaps Israel hopes if the Bush administration were to decide an Israeli attack was inevitable, it might be encouraged to launch one itself to improve the chances of success."

Greg Sheridan, the foreign editor of the Australian, writes: "There is, I would guess, somewhere between a 30 and 40 per cent chance that the Bush administration will bomb Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of the year.

"This is, naturally, a personal judgment. It is based on two weeks of intense conversations I have had with American national security figures. . . .

"People who know Vice-President Dick Cheney well believe he wants to strike Iran, that he has made a sober judgment that time is running out. . . .