Bush's Risky Move

"Not since British paratroopers came nose to nose with Russian soldiers at Pristina airport in 1999 have the old East-West rivalries resurfaced in such explosive form. Back then, the situation was defused by General Sir Mike Jackson, the British commander, who refused to confront the Russians and 'start World War III'.

"It is to be hoped that the commanders of the US Navy and Air Force now leading their forces to Georgia will be equipped with the same diplomatic skills. Nevertheless, entering a new war zone is fraught with dangers. The US Navy's task force will be challenging the Russian naval blockade of Georgia's ports, while the giant US military cargo planes will be landing close to areas recently bombed by Russian warplanes. The Georgians tried to exploit the move last night by declaring that their ports and airports would be put under US military control, an offer the Pentagon quickly declined.

"Everyone concerned is fully aware that this operation has little to do with humanitarian needs. Georgia is not an African country in the grip of a terrible drought. It is a small pro-Western nation at Europe's fringe that is struggling to recover from a vicious bashing by its giant neighbour.

"The presence of US airmen and sailors is meant to send a powerful signal to Tbilisi that Washington will stand by its allies, in this case the crumbling Government of President Saakashvili. The US move is also intended to demonstrate to the Kremlin that US forces can and will operate in Russia's backyard. . . .

"So what prompted Mr Bush to come out with such a tough response against his erstwhile ally, after six days of dithering? One clue could be the sabre-rattling by Dick Cheney, the Vice-President, who said at the weekend that the Kremlin's move would not go unanswered. Mr Cheney may have persuaded Mr Bush that a more robust response was needed. The White House may have felt the need to reimpose its authority after the tough stand taken by John McCain, the Republican nominee for the presidency, who has used the crisis to demonstrate his leadership on national security matters."

The Leverage Problem

Dan Eggen and Karen DeYoung write in The Washington Post that Bush's plan, which also includes sending Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to the Georgian capital, only amounts to "modest action. . . .

"Bush's statement, along with the moderate measures that came with it, served to underscore the limited options available to the United States, which has neither the wherewithal nor the willingness to enter into a military conflict with Russia on its territorial border.

"The administration has proposed relatively little in the way of concrete consequences for Moscow if it does not comply with U.S. demands, focusing instead on Russia's standing in the world and its perceived desire to be accepted as a major player in international organizations."

And they note: "The haste with which Rice's trip was put together -- the decision was made at the White House yesterday morning just before Bush emerged in the Rose Garden -- meant that the Boeing 757 aircraft normally used by the secretary of state was unavailable. Vice President Cheney used it yesterday for a fundraising trip to Colorado, and Rice was relegated to a smaller Air Force C-40, with limits on staff, security and reporters, officials said."

Michael M. Phillips, Stephen Power and John W. Miller write in the Wall Street Journal: "Bush's implicit threat of financial retaliation against Russia faces a major obstacle: The U.S. and the European Union don't have much economic sway right now over oil-rich Moscow. . . .

"[T]he U.S. doesn't do that much business with Russia, while the European Union buys so much gas from Russia that it is Moscow that has the upper hand."

Olivier Knox writes for AFP: "Bush's comments drew an angry response from Moscow.