The Big Show

"As in his speech in Berlin and his stadium nomination speech last summer," says the New York Times, "Mr. Obama's campaign was again practicing its brand of big-event politics with this infomercial: Taking over a huge chunk of the television dial in an effort to make a closing sale with an audience that was likely to be well into the millions. And like the gambits before it, the advertisement held risks just by definition of what it was: A giant financial outlay that made Mr. Obama almost unavoidable to television viewers who are by now weary from all these many months of politicking."

"The America he depicted was not exactly America the Beautiful," says the New York Post. "It was more like America the worried -- with last night's show stressing everything that is wrong with America and little right with it. If the show represented Obama's 'message of hope,' I'd hate to hear what he has to say when he feels pessimistic."

Is the race tightening? Well, maybe, says the New Republic's Noam Scheiber:

"Obama's lead in the national tracking polls looks to be around five points (I get 5.5 when I average all six of the trackers I mentioned, along with the Hotline and Battleground trackers, which haven't changed much in the last few days). If that drops two-to-three points, as it easily could in a week, I don't think it's crazy to think McCain will have a shot at winning Pennsylvania, Virginia, and/or Colorado. Unlikely, yes, but not crazy. According to sites like Real Clear and Pollster.com, Obama's lead in those states is currently larger than his 5.5 point national lead (significantly so in Pennsylvania). But, as I argued last week, the relationship between battleground-state numbers and national numbers can change significantly as we approach the finish, and those state averages you see could easily be a week out of date.

"My immediate concern is twofold: That McCain is getting some traction with his liberal/socialist/redistributionist charge -- the WaPo tracker shows McCain narrowing the gap on the economy over the last week -- and, in light of this, that Obama is striking his high-note a few days too early."

Chuck Todd, who's been standing in front of blue maps lately, says the ballgame is the remaining undecideds:

"These are folks who, four years ago, voted mostly Republican. They are undecided now because they are upset with Bush and upset with the economy. But they are not yet on board when it comes to voting for Obama, either because of his party I.D., or his race, but mostly because of the fact that he's a Democrat.

"The question all of us in the analyst community are trying to figure out is, will these undecided Republican-leaning voters show up and vote McCain? Or will they stay home?

"If they show up and vote, then Obama's margins will shrink dramatically because McCain -- as I've argued before -- will garner some 70+ percent of the undecided vote."

Conservatives, such as Powerline's John Hinderaker, are taking heart in a couple of tracking polls:

"Barack Obama's national lead over John McCain is down to two points in Gallup's 'traditional' turnout poll, and Wednesday morning Rasmussen Reports has Obama's lead dwindling to three points . . . Obama's lead may or may not be three points, but I think we can rely on Rasmussen for the proposition that McCain is closing the gap.

"The history of this campaign has been one of McCain climbing the hill, only to roll back down on account of events in the news, most critically the financial crisis. Whenever the news cycle is quiet, McCain moves toward parity."