Major League Baseball
Major League Baseball Annual Winter Meetings

Barry Svrluga
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, December 10, 2004 10:30 AM

Baseball's annual winter meetings begin Friday in Anaheim, Calif., sessions that often produce headlines about free agents switching teams. But while many big-league clubs have invested their attention in high-profile stars, a growing number of established players have found themselves fighting over the few jobs and even fewer dollars left over. WIll that trend continue this year? Will the Nationals be able to compete with the big-spending clubs like the Yankees and Orioles?

Post staff writer Barry Svrluga, was online Friday, Dec. 10, at 10:30 a.m. ET to take your questions.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

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Barry Svrluga: Good morning, everyone. It's early out here in Anaheim, site of the winter meetings, so the deal-making isn't likely to commence until ... well, it'll likely wait for Scott Boras to arrive.

Thanks for joining us. Let's get to some questions.

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Waynesboro, Va.: Even if the Nationals had no financial constraints, are most free agents reluctant to sign with them until ownership is secured? And please, MLB, don't bring in Daniel Snyder, even as a minority shareholder. The Nats have a chance to make major headway in this market -- but they need an owner who not only is competent with on-field moves, but is fan-friendly as well. To my mind, Snyder is neither of these things.

Barry Svrluga: Remember one thing about free agency: You're going to hear people say it's not about the money, but it's always about the money. So if a new owner comes in willing to spend, Washington will be able to attract players -- just as Montreal would have been able to attract players had the Expos been able to spend.

Though there has been lots of speculation about whether Snyder wants to be involved, nothing's happened yet. The sale process is only slowly developing, so we'll see.

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Orioles fan in Washington, D.C.: I am a native Washingtonian who is a die-hard Orioles fan. And soon to be Nationals fan--but I can't really see myself caring as much about a National League Team. Half the fun of being an Orioles fan is beating teams like the Red Sox and Yankees. Miguel Tejada is a true superstar. the Nat's don't have one of those.

I have stuck with the O's over five losing seasons--which has been quite painful emotionally. And like a lot of fans that take it to heart, i have been going into each season thinking that the O's are going to do it. Somehow, with some unknown journeyman. But it never happens. I have all this emotional investment in the O's, despite a huge dislike for Peter Angelos.

But I am in quandary this time around. If the O's don't sign at least one star pitcher this off-season, I may have no choice but to take the easy road to RFK, which is only 15 minutes away. I want the Orioles organization to say to its fans everywhere: we care about you! we are committed to making the O's a competitive team. But to do so it needs to spend the $$$$. If they don't, it could be the straw that broke the camel's back. Comments???

Barry Svrluga: So you're the fan Peter Angelos was talking about, the native DC person who he could lose because baseball arrives in Washington. Take solace, though. If the Orioles sign a top pitcher -- and yes, Pavano is their ultimate goal, but they seem sure to be able to fall back on Matt Clement or someone else -- the O's will be much better than the Nationals anyway. If you're going to choose your team by which one will be more competitive in 2005, I think you'll be driving to Baltimore.

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Princeton,N.J.: Barry:

Thanks for the opportunity to ask you this question. Being a long time Orioles fan I am
excited about the potential for this off season for the team. What do you believe are the chances for the Orioles to "pull off" a double header by obtaining Tim Hudson (trade
route) and Pavano (free agent route;)while
still being able to add the two big hitters they need i.e. Delgado and Ordonez ?

Barry Svrluga: Jim Beattie and Mike Flanagan just had a co-heart attack. All four of those guys? The Orioles aren't the Yankees. The top attraction is clearly Pavano, who's coming off the 18-8 year with Florida and has many suitors. But there's some debate as to how much Baltimore would be willing to give up to Oakland for Hudson. The general buzz here, though, is that Hudson or Barry Zito will be traded in the next few days.

As for Ordonez, Baltimore hasn't been able to speak with Boras, his agent, yet. That could happen this week. And the O's would have stiff competition from Seattle, it appears, for Delgado.

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Arlington, Va.: Barry-

Getting really excited for the upcoming season. Do you have any idea what the breakdown for the mini-packages is going to look like (e.g. weekend games, 20 games, 10 games, etc.).

Go Nats!

Barry Svrluga: Wow. That might be our first official "Go Nats" sighting. Impressive dedication for Dec. 10. Quick: Name the starting infield.

No word on mini-packages yet. But they should offer some flexibility, and we could know what they'll look like before the holidays.

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Oakton, Va.: If you bought the Nationals tomorrow, would you retain Jim Bowden? His commitment to overpaying "proven" mediocrities like Christian Guzman and the sea level Vinny Castilla is disturbing. At this point in their development cycle (the low point) the Nats need to find out which of their prospects are for real, then next year plug the holes by signing or trading for stars. Signing mid-tier free agents is counterproductive because it blocks prospects, costs draft picks and burns up money which could otherwise be saved to pay legitimate stars. The Nats need to focus on acquiring players who can help them win championships, not 70 games.

Barry Svrluga: That's all true: The ultimate goal for any franchise is to win championships. But signing Vinny Castilla for two years at $6.2 million won't get in the way of that goal. There is some debate about how good the deal for Guzman -- four years, almost $17 million -- was. Some people see him as a slick-fielding shortstop who, at 26, hasn't begun to reach his offensive potential. Others see him as a weak hitter with an embarrassingly low on-base percentage who is about to be overpaid. We'll see.

Whether or not the new owner keeps Bowden will have as much to do with personality and style as anything else. Bowden supporters love the guy. Others can't stand him. But with the farm system already depleted, it'd be hard to wait things out and then trade for stars in a year. More likely: Bowden waits until July, sees who needs a power hitter, and tries to trade Castilla for prospects then.

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Washington, D.C.: With the high volume of early number of Nationals season ticket holders committed for the opening season, Williams seems content to hand off all of the benefits of a new stadium with an instant fan base to a prospective buyer, while assuming all of the considerable financial risk for the District. The land acquisition, the infrastructure improvements, the cost overages, the environmental cleanup, etc. If MLB is such a winning financial proposition, why not invite proposals from private investors to finance the stadium rather than a privately financed stadium being a non-starter for MLB and the District? Shouldn't an instant season ticket base tripling the average Expos 2003 attendance offer a bargaining position of strength.

The privately financed PAC Bell is a clear success, while the often cited paradims Safeco and PNC Park are collosal failures (aesthetic charms aside). DC Metro probably has more economists per capita than any region in the country. Perhaps Williams could have consulted a single one of them concerning the inefficacy of publicly financed stadiums as catlysts in promoting ecomonic development.

Barry Svrluga: Good suggestions, all. The problem: Williams cut the deal with MLB before anyeone raelized how quickly season tickets would sell or what the fan base would be like. Baseball is extremely wary of opening up a deal they felt was done. Ultimately, baseball only cares that the stadium is financed properly and gets constructed. But it's unlikely, in the next five days, that rock solid private financing will be found.

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Anonymous: "Name the starting infield": CA- Brian Schneider
1B- Nick Johnson or Brad Wilkerson
2B- Jose Vidro
3B- Vinny Castilla
SS- Cristian Guzman

Barry Svrluga: Nicely done. Very nicely done.

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Laurel, Md.: Barry, have the Orioles decided where they're holding spring training next year? I'm trying to make my travel plans, and I can't even find if I need a room in Florida or Arizona.

Several SE Florida teams have posted schedules listing road games at Ft. Lauderdale stadium, but the O's site and SpringTraining.com don't say they have a schedule yet.

Barry Svrluga: As far as I know, there's been no change from Ft. Lauderdale. I know that's where our Orioles beat writer is planning on spending February, so there better be a team there.

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Seattle, Wash.: As the details of the stadium deal Mayor Williams struck with MLB slowly become apparent, it sounds worse and worse. The District will pay an estimated $3.7 million for a stadium consultant, not to mention the entire cost of the stadium, but they will have absolutely no say in hiring the consultant. MLB and the new owners, who are paying for none of the stadium cost, get to make that deicision. Are there any more details about this horribly negotiatied deal that the public hasn't learned about yet? The last time I lived in D.C. (about 5 years ago) there seemed to be more entertainment options than I would ever have time for. Are people in the District so desperate for entertainment today that they're willing to pay anything to get it?

Barry Svrluga: We'll have to see what the market bears in terms of actual fans at the games, but keep in mind: This deal was struck without much consulting outside Mayor Williams's tight inner circle, and District residents -- polls show -- are overwhelmingly against it. In some ways, it's amazing, considering all the adversity and scrutiny, that this deal looks ready to pass on Tuesday.

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Woodbridge, Va.: With over 18000 season tickets sold so far, why can't the nationals spend more to match other teams. It would seem that baseball would want to put a quality team in DC to start the franchise off in a good direction. Certainly, the money will be there because RFK likely will be close to capacity all 81 games this first year. Also the sale of merchandise has boomed so far & likely will continue.

Barry Svrluga: Yes, the increased fan base will mean increased revenue. But MLB is reluctant to make huge commitments to lots of players because they'll then be foisting those contracts on new owners. You could argue that a better product on the field would drive up the selling price, but that's not going to be the main factor. And keep in mind: In the three seasons at RFK, there won't be revenue from luxury boxes, etc. The TV deal hasn't been negotiated yet. So there's still enough uncertainty about revenue that signing Adrian Beltre isn't a possibility.

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Arlington, Va.: What information do you have about when and in what manner the uniforms will be unveiled? Thanks.

Barry Svrluga: The Nationals intend to bring a player to the District, dress him up in their red, white and blue garb and have a public unveiling. They were shooting for Monday, but we'll see -- and we'll let you know as soon as we do.

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Arlington, Va.: Do you have any opinion of how Frank Robinson is as a manager? He has certainly been around. It also means that the Washington franchise's last two managers are members of the baseball Hall of Fame.

Barry Svrluga: I'll meet Frank today for the first time, so I'll have a better idea after that. Opinions of him during his time in Montreal are certainly mixed. Some people feel his Hall of Fame credentials demand respect, and the young guys look up to him. Others feel he undermines all that by falling asleep in the dugout (which he was caught doing by a TV camera last year). He manages more by gut than by "the book." It'll be interesting to see how people in Washington take to him.

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McLean, Va.: I was wondering what baseball teams would do now that they couldn't threaten to move to DC if not given a new stadium. Well, didn't take long for the Marlins to answer that by threatening to move to Vegas. Think there's any chance of that happening, or is that about as likely as when the Astros were threatening to bolt to DC?

Barry Svrluga: Vegas seems to be the next frontier for a pro sports franchise, and the NBA and MLB are the most likely. There's been discussion that Oakland would move to Vegas if it doesn't get a new stadium. As long as there are stadium controversies, owners will find other markets that they can threaten to move to.

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Pittsburgh, Pa.: Barry,

With half of MLB players more juiced than the baseballs, why should anyone even care about baseball anymore? And what did you think of Hank Aaron's comment regarding the bloated Mr. Bonds?

Barry Svrluga: This will be one of the interesting storylines of the offseason and into next year. Will fans protest the obvious steroid use by players by not showing up? Or do they just want to see home runs, no matter who's hitting them -- and how? Aaron's words -- sharply critical of Bonds -- certainly carry weight, particularly with Bonds himself because he very much cares about his place in history.

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Washington, D.C.: Native Washingtonian and long time baseball fan here. Why isn't anyone(everyone?) talking about doping? Like Boswell said, sometime next season, Bonds will be in a position to hit the record breaking homerun, and I wouldn't cross the street to watch it. In fact, I might not even watch the replay on tv. MLB has a ways to go to get me excited about the sport again, and they haven't gotten started yet(I don't even know what it will take to get me back- but they better do something!). Do the fans(other than me and Boswell) not care about the doping issue?

Barry Svrluga: And just as we address it for the first time, someone chimes in passionately on the issue.

It'll be interesting to see how many other folks there are like you, Washington. This is almost certainly the most important baseball -- and sports -- story of this generation.

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Guzman....: Who cares if he can't hit? His glove is golden, that's what you need above all else at the #6 position. Sacrifice offense for defense up the middle (catcher, 2b, ss, centerfield), hope for strong pitching, and sign power at 1B, 3B, LF and RF. That's what we need.

Remember Mark Belanger?

Barry Svrluga: Ah, Mark Belanger. Or what about Orlando Cabrera?

This is certainly Bowden's stance on Guzman. But Bowden also believes he can markedly improve offensively.

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Silver Spring, Md.: It seems that free agent money early this offseason is particularly off the charts - 3 years, $21 million to Armando Benitez; Varitek, a 32 year old catcher, asking for 5 years and 55 million; not to mention $4 million per year on Christian Guzman...

When does this ridiculousness end? And what terrible deal will the Mets make - an 8 year contract to an aging Sammy Sosa?

Barry Svrluga: Haven't the Mets already made their terrible deal -- three years, $22.5 million to Kris Benson? You're right, Silver Spring: Those deals, and others, are driving the market up and infuriating some general managers. The Benson deal has affected those for Jon Leiber and Jaret Wright. Varitek won't get what he was originally asking for, but he'll be in the four-year, $36-40 million range.

Sosa will be an interesting case. It seems unlikely that anyone, other than the Mets and his good friend Omar Minaya, would be willing to take him. But that contract -- $17 million next year, I believe -- will be hard for the Cubs to move.

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Anonymous: Ah, Mark Belanger. Or what about Orlando Cabrera? Mike Bordick, too. Actually I believe the same was said about Leo Durocher once upon a time.

Barry Svrluga: Indeed.

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Boston, Mass.: Transplanted O's fan in Red Sox Nation
All I hear is about Pavano and Hudson. Why aren't the O's interested in Lowe? I would think a ground ball pitcher would do well in Camden Yard especially with their infield defense. Why no buzz about Lowe in general- I think he's like #2 in wins over the last 4 years?

Barry Svrluga: Is this question from Scott Boras?

Anyone who watched Lowe's entire season remembers how inconsistent he was. For each of those brilliant starts in the playoffs, he was shaky twice as often during the regular seaosn. Boras, his agent, will argue that he suffered because of the Sox' poor defense prior to the Nomar trade. But that's over-simplifying. Lowe almost certainly won't sign until after Pavano.

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Ft Washington, Pa.: Hey Barry... any word on who's going to be carrying the Nats' games on radio (and who the play by play voices will be)?

Barry Svrluga: Completely up in the air, and the team is a little frustrated by it. Another thing they'd like to work out before the New Year, but it seems unlikely.

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Falls Church, Va.: Steve Klein to Baltimore or DC?

Cards fan in Falls Church

Barry Svrluga: Depends on who else gets in the bidding. Kline is murder on lefties, and will certainly get a job. But if Boston comes in with more money, Washington certainly won't have a chance.

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Washington, D.C.: One thing I've never understood: why was it so important to MLB that DC's stadium be publicly financed?

Barry Svrluga: It wasn't -- at the beginning. If Mayor Williams had gone to baseball and said, "Look, we have this plan that is solidly financed with private money," baseball would have jumped. The problem is saying you have one deal and then trying to change it midstream.

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Willow, Ark.: Is the D.C. team just going to field a bunch of has-beens just to get into the business and hope to develop in the years ahead? Or do they intend to find deep pockets somewhere and start signing real talent?

Most of the names I've read in your session this morning, other than Hudson and the Marlins pitcher, are at the ho-hum level.

So is it ho-hum or big spending we're looking at here?

Hardwood Grits

Barry Svrluga: We won't know until we know who the owner will be. Right now, with MLB owning the club, it's not going to be in position to compete for the top-tier free agents. But I'd also argue that they're not filling the roster with "has-beens." Third baseman Vinny Castilla, at 37, is really the only guy on the roster who could remotely fit that description, and he led the NL in RBI last year. Livan Hernandez may have seen better days, but he threw 255 innings in 2004. Yes, they could bring in someone like Barry Larkin, who has contemplated retirement, but only in a limited role.

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Springfield, Va.: For the sake of argument, let's assume that the new Nationals ownership has the same financial resources as Peter Angelos. Won't they still be at a disadvantage in signing free agents because of the additional revenue that Angelos will receive due to the TV contract that was negotiated to appease him?

Barry Svrluga: The TV contract isn't yet done, and it could be a sticking point to the whole deal. Yes, Angelos wants more of the revenue from a regional sports network than the Washington club will receive, and that will be something that will interest any potential new owner. Will it skew the competitive balance? That remains to be seen.

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Mt. Lebanon, Pa.: How did Kris Benson become the defacto standard for mid-level pitchers where contracts are concerned?

$22.5M for 3 years seems like a lot for a guy who, when he took the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates, was an unknown from start to start. Sometimes good, sometimes lousy. Not a great pitcher but a regular journeyman.

So how did "the Kris Benson standard" get established so quickly? And do you agree with it?

By the way, average to middling players sometimes take off and accomplish great things when they leave the Pirates. We've become a training camp for the likes of San Francisco, St. Louis, and Chicago. Maybe Benson will grow into his own, as well.

Thanks much. HLB

Barry Svrluga: The Kris Benson Standard got established because he was the first mid-tier pitcher to sign this offseason, and he got a deal that most baseball people feel was far too generous. Now, agents are able to go to GM's and say, "Well, Kris Benson got three years for $22.5 million, and he went 12-12 last year, and my guy went 15-8, so I'd like at least that much." Look at Russ Ortiz, who's reportedly about to sign with Arizona for three years and $27 million. That deal doesn't happen without Benson's.

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Washington, D.C.: Having never actually seen a game at RFK, what type of player would be an ideal fit there? In other words, is it a hitters or a pitchers park? and which, if any, free agent out there would fit with the stadium, esp. with how the tigers and padres seemingly failed to consider that when moving to their new stadiums.

Barry Svrluga: It's hard to say. The Nationals have done some research and determined, in general terms, that it'll be a pitchers' park, and defense will be important. With Guzman and Vidro up the middle, that should be ok. The key will be how the team fits into the new park in 2008 (should it ever get there).

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Raleigh, N.C.: Thanks for taking my question.
What are the chances that Baltimore pulls of a trade with Oakland for Hudson (or even Zito)?
Also, do you know if the Baltimore front office is considering either Matt Clement or Odalis Perez if Pavano falls thru? If they aren't, why?

Barry Svrluga: Thanks for chiming in, Raleigh. Yes, the O's have significant interest in Hudson. Pavano, though, is the top target, and they would fall back on Clement if that doesn't work out. Perez is being pursued heavily by Washington. For now, Baltimore has its sights set a little higher.

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Mexico City, Mexico: No, I'm not from there, I throw it out as a relocation possibility. Seems a lot more plausible than San Juan or Monterrey, or for that matter Vancouver (given the NBA's failure there--a shame, it's a great city). What are the chances that some team will threaten to move to Mexico City at some point? I know the peso is a problem, and the pollution, and the travel distances (at least until a new SST is built), but it seems like the single biggest untapped potential market in North America, and the Mexicans love their beisbol.

Barry Svrluga: Monterrey is a more likely destination than Mexico City, for all the reasons you mentioned (pollution, traffic, etc.). But I would guess Vegas gets a team before Mexico.

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Washington, D.C.: What are the chances of attracting Odalis Perez and will his price be reasonable? He seems like the main target now for Jim Bowden and would be a good fit for the team as a top of the rotation pitcher. Being in my opinion a step above Jaret Wright and Jon Lieber, I would think $18 million over 3 years would be somewhat of Bargain and meet one of the Nats needs.

Barry Svrluga: Perez made $5 million last season, and that's dangerously close to getting out of Washington's price range. Perez is considering the Nats, but Bowden will likely have to be patient. If another team swoops in with a fatter checkbook, Washington will lose out.

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Anonymous: Someone write: "Half the fun of being an Orioles fan is beating teams like the...Yankees."

Well, that's about one fun day a year... Hopefully, the Nats can rival this.

Barry Svrluga: Excellent point.

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Arlington, Va.: Does anyone actually care about steroid use by these 'professional' athletes? It seems like most fans don't care. I think it's really sad that these fans and atheletes are just setting the stage for high school students to use steroids because- hey, professionals do it!; Shame on baseball!; I hope this issue gets resolved BEFORE the season starts. Weekly drug tests for all!;

Barry Svrluga: We will forward your message to Bud Selig and Donald Fehr.

It does seem clear that something must be done before Opening Day. But will it actually have enough teeth to be effective. And will science stay one step ahead of the law?

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Washington, D.C.: I'm a longtime DC resident delighted at the return of baseball - I've even bought my first overpriced t-shirt. But it's vitally important to me that DC and MLB come up with a stadium design that encourages development in the area. If after all this we end up with an stadium with no architectural character and surround by parking lots me and a lot of others will feel mighty misled. It's in the heart of the nation's capital. It needs to be magnificent, and integrated fully into the neighborhood to come around it.

Barry Svrluga: Part of whether baseball will succeed in Washington will have to do with development around the ballpark. In the best case scenario, fans (tourists, even) could begin their day on the National Mall and walk past shops, restaurants and bars on the way to the park. That's a big gap to close. There is considerable debate about whether stadiums actually spur economic development. The Mayor has promised a vision of what the area will look like. It's a long way from that right now.

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Raleigh, N.C.: Why hasn't there been more buzz for Odalis Perez (or Matt Clement)? Both seem as good, if not better, than Pavano (who strikes me a Ponson, part 2)

Barry Svrluga: Pavano might be Ponson, Part 2 -- minus 50 pounds.

Have you read this chat? Much buzz about Perez and Clement. But the top guys are likely going to sign first -- unless someone overpays.

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Gettysburg, Pa.: Belanger, Cabrera... Concepcion... Bowa... Cal Jr. was really the one who broke that mold, wasn't he?

Barry Svrluga: Yep. Before he came along, guys with his body type would have been automatically considered third basemen.

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Anonymous: Starting Nats infield -- pretty easy: Nick Johnson, Miguel Cairo, Christian Guzman and Castilla. Not bad, actually.

Barry Svrluga: Cairo? You mean Jose Vidro at second base.

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Cleveland Park, Washington, D.C., Red Sox Nation: re: D.Lowe

Prior to the Nomar trade, with Nomar being out the better portion of that time due to his Achilles tendon injury, Pokey Reese (primarily) was playing a stellar shortstop position for the Red Sox.

Barry Svrluga: Indeed, Reese did play there for 71 games. I was just saying what Boras would argue, not if it was actually true.

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Barry Svrluga: Folks, thanks for joining in. Time to go mill about the lobby. It could be an eventful weekend. Remember to check back at washingtonpost.com when the Orioles or Nationals make a deal.

Enjoy the weekend.

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