World Opinion Roundup: Blair in Tight Race

In his weekly discussion, washingtonpost.com staff writer Jefferson Morley conducts a freewheeling tour of the best of Internet news sites from Afghanistan to Beijing to Mexico City to Paris to Zimbabwe.

This week, Morley discusses Tony Blair's tight race and the home stretch of Britain's May 5 election. Read his column: Could Leaks Sink Tony Blair?

A transcript follows.

Roundup brings the diversity of the global online media to your screen, presenting today's news and views from journalists, pundits and commentators from every continent. We'll talk about America in the eyes of the world, compare journalistic practices, analyze politics and perspectives, examine the nature of news and debate styles of journalism.

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Jefferson Morley: Welcome all. We've got a lot to talk about with the British election the day after tomorrow and the new government taking power in Baghdad.

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Toronto, Ontario, Canada: Good afternoon - the media leaks are certainly damaging to Tony Blair - but what do they say of George Bush? Do the leaked documents not prove that the U.S. was going to invade Iraq no matter what, and started planning well in advance of the more public run-up and circus at the U.N. All the talk about terrorism and WMD immediately before the invasion was simply a cover - I hate to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but it seems that regime change was something decided long before the hype, and it was the plan all along. Faulty intelligence re: Iraq's WMDs and alleged ties to terrorism (bin Laden)was spin to sell the war and make it palatable, and even look necessary. Simple, create the threat,invade, get the job done (although that part didn't quite work to plan, did it), and then say "oops, we goofed, relied on some bum sources, but it's a better world without Saddam anyway" (except of course, for the 100,000+ Iraqi civilians who paid the ultimate price).

Jefferson Morley: What the British leaks say is that it was clear to Blair as early as April 2002, eleven months before the start of the war and six months before the U.S. went to the United Nations, that the Bush administration was going to invade Iraq. The question that was then debated on the British side was legality: did the proposed action meet standards of international law? This question, the leaks strongly suggest, was not really an issue for the Americans. Part of what is driving the British press coverage is the expectation that the international legality question was important. Blair certainly said so in public. The leaks show that behind the scene he had already decided to join the Americans and was looking for ways to develop the legal argument. The debate in the United Nations, which the U.S. side was not crazy about, can be seen, in part, as a concession to Blair's needs. Without the U.S. documentation, the issue cannot be settled definitively but the recent leaks lend credence to the notion.

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Fairfax, Va.: Is there any chance that Labour might win a plurality but not a majority of seats? Would it then have to form a government with coalition partners, i.e. Liberal Democrats, Scottish Nationalists, etc.? Might such a coalition partner demand that Blair step down in exchange for letting Labour govern?

Jefferson Morley: Its called a hung parliament. Most commentators discount the possibility. But there is much talk that a dramatically educed Labour majority would force a reelected Blair to turn to over power to successor Gordon Brown earlier rather than later in his third term.

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Alexandria, Va.: As someone who travels several times a year to London, I think the press reports about Blair losing the elections are blown out of proportion. With a voting rate of 40%, I've found most people apathetic about the upcoming election, noting that all the parties are the same(sound familiar?). Most people also acknowledge that while Blair was wrong about the war, the country's economy is better under Labour than the Conservatives.

One thing the U.K. press does well is grill all the candidates. After watching Jeremy Paxman interview all 3 PM candidates, one wonders how the U.S. politicians would fair.

Jefferson Morley: I think there's something to what you say. We're in the home stretch of the election and the media coverage/speculation game magnifies the smallest factor, perhaps out of proportion. Iraq does not seem to be key issue for most voters. The question is whether it is a key issue for enough progressive Labour voters to hurt Blair. And you are right, many of Blair's war critics on left acknowledge that his government has generally done a good job on public services.

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Chesapeake Beach, Md.: What role have blogs played in the U.K. election cycle? Is it still a developing medium over there, or is it as influential as we see here in the U.S.?

Jefferson Morley: Infinitesimal. I don't really see blogs as "influential" in U.S. politics. In U.S. media politics, yes. The incessant discussion of the alleged impact of blogs is mostly a reflection of the fears in the minds of Old Media types that their days of privileged arbiters of political discourse are coming to an end. These fears are legitimate.

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Detroit, Mich.: What are the chances of the Liberal Democrats becoming the official opposition, as opposed to the Tories?

Jefferson Morley: According to the polls, the chances are small.

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Wheaton, Md.: If Blair wins, will that show overwhelming British support for the war on terrorism?

Jefferson Morley: Only if Labor wins overwhelmingly. The Iraq war remains unpopular in Britain and it is the centerpiece of the U.S. war on terrorism.

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Bethesda, Md.: Why do you think the British public cares that it was lied to, whereas much of the American electorate has taken all the deceptions leading up to Iraq so much in stride? This one just still mystifies me.

Jefferson Morley: I think because the concept of international legality is much more central to British opinion than to American opinion. Establishing an empire based on the British way of doing things, suffering attack from the lawless Nazi regime, and losing their empire after WWII has given the British people a real-life education in the virtues of international legality. Americans have had no such education. The notion of America's unique benevolence trumps arguments of international legality. There is no comparable phenomenon is British politics.

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Baltimore Md.: I think Blair has weathered all the revelations about Iraq because the British economy has performed solidly during his tenure. Also, Michael Howard brought so much baggage with him when he took over the Tory leadership that it's dragged down the party's chances. (I think that he earned the nickname "Dracula" when he was Home Secretary under John Major.)

It all works very much in Blair's favor, though his margin is certain to be smaller than in the two previous elections.

Jefferson Morley: Thanks for your comment.

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Re: Spoiler Elections: "There isn't going to be a Liberal Democrat government," Blair said. "But what there could be is Liberal Democrat votes that let the Tories in."

It sounds like the British people need Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) as much as we Americans do. Our two most recent presidents were thrust into office on the "spoiler" effect of a third party candidate. When do you think our countries will get a modern voting system that enables people to express their real democratic desires? 2030 or so?

Jefferson Morley: I don't think the "spoiler" criticism is particularly strong when voiced against in a parliamentary system. The winner still has to put together a majority. The spoiler charge is much more legitimate against winner take all systems like the America's.

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Jefferson Morley: And now let's move on to some other topics.

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Pittsburgh, Pa.: Has there been any reaction, especially in the Arab press, to the fact that the soldiers who abused Iraqi prisoners seem to be getting light sentences by copping pleas, and some are not even getting kicked out of the military, but only getting reduced in rank? (If I am right, the only soldier who seems to have received extremely harsh punishment in the one who attacked his own.) Is there any anger in the Arab world about that issue? Also, what's the reaction in the Arab media when the West touts that progress is being made in Iraq while the Iraqi government essentially governs in a heavily-armed fortress?

Jefferson Morley: What I'm seeing today is that the news out of Italy about the government's criticism of the U.S. shooting of the Italian security officer accompanying the freed hostage. This is getting much bigger play than the Lyndie England's plea. See, for example, Aljazeera.net's coverage in the link below.

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washingtonpost.com: Al Jazeera link:

Al Jazeera: Italy Blames U.S. Soldiers for Killing.

Islam Online: Berlusconi Edited Report.

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Arlington, Va.: The linked Reuters article discusses plans by Canada's principal opposition party to seek to topple the government soon.

Canada's Conservatives Try To Topple Government

I also thought you might be interested in the linked BBC article, which summarizes the ongoing political scandal in Canada and the potentially very serious damage it is threatening toward the ruling party.

Canada scandal testimony released.

Finally, note the attempt by a Canadian court to ban publication of any details of certain court hearings relating to the scandal, and the ineffectiveness of that ban in an Internet-linked world.

Net weakens media ban in Canada scandal probe.

Jefferson Morley: Thanks for the Northern Update.

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Jefferson Morley: And now back to the British elections

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Birmingham, Ala.: Michael Howard calling Tony Blair a 'liar' is well over the top, even for British politics. If Labour wins the election, I am assuming that Howard will have to stand down - which could put the Conservatives in even more of a mess (of course, after Hague and IDS, this could be difficult). The question is who will take his place? Portillo?

Jefferson Morley: I don't see why Howard would have to stand down. If Howard wins, he will be the new Clement Atlee who ousted Winston Churchill amid his wartime glory in 1945.

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St. Louis, Mo.: Suppose the Tories did take Parliament. What kind of changes in policy foreign and domestic would we expect? Less EU friendly? How much like Republicans are they? More libertarian?

Jefferson Morley: Good question. Howard probably wouldn't do much different in Iraq. He would probably be less Euro-friendly than Blair but there too there might be less difference than one would expect. Blair has always respected Euro-scepticism in British opinion and thus has not rushed to embrace the EU. The biggest difference would be in public services and immigration. Less supportive of the former and more restrictive on the latter.

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Arlington, Va.: With regard to the checkpoint shooting, is the Italian press reporting CBS' assertion that satellite photos tracked the journalist's car approaching the checkpoint and show its speed at 60 mph?

U.S Satellite Recorded Checkpoint Shooting, Shows Speed of Italian Car: CBS.

Jefferson Morley: No. That seems to be a CBS exclusive at this point.

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Boston, Mass.: Re: differing sentences:

From my vantage point, the two situations are very different. With the abuse tribunals, I don't think we, average people, actually know what the heck was going on. Who said what to whom, and where any orders originated, etc.

It feels like the NCOs are getting the brunt of a ball that's been sent rolling down hill and the sentencing shows a recognition of that. Does that make them non-culpable? Heck no! But it does put another twist in the situation.

Jefferson Morley: The origins of the U.S. torture policy are not hard to discern from the available documentation. The types of abuses that the NCO's face charges for were ordered from the top. The Pentagon's recent decisions makes clear that only one general may faces charges, and even she may not. I think the disparity is going to become more of an issue as the NCO's go to trial or plead.

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Washington, D.C.: Good afternoon- The Los Angeles Times is reporting that the U.S. is establishing ties with the Sudan. Is this getting much international attention? Considering the Sudan has been seen as committing genocide (which we oust leaders for) and that they are considered a sponsor of terrorism, I am surprised that we could get away with this without heavy criticism.

Thanks....

Jefferson Morley: No. That very fine LA Times story is their scoop. The story makes clear that Sudan's intelligence agencies and government have nimbly switched from harboring Al Qaeda to supporting the CIA agenda with the course of a few years. I expect there to be some criticism but I doubt that the U.S. public or Congress or media will take any kind of action that will change the reality of our partnership with the authors of the Darfur catastrophe.

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washingtonpost.com: Official Pariah Sudan Valuable to America's War on Terrorism. (Registration Required)

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Munich, Germany:

According to the Independent,

Revealed: Blair to Upgrade Britain's Nuclear Weapons.

another leak regarding the U.K.'s future nuclear deterrent will cause a battle within his own party. In the 1980s, the topic of nuclear disarmament split the Labour Party and made it unelectable until Tony Blair came along.

Tony Blair must have really disappointed the British Civil Service for so many leaks to be made just before the election.

Jefferson Morley: Thanks for the link. This story isn't really an issue but it casts some light on the current debate about the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The NPT, of course, offers the non-nuclear nations of the world a bargain: If you refrain from pursuing nuclear weapons, the world's nuclear club will pursue disarmament. The Independent story indicates that this bargain is mostly honored in the breach: that the Brits are not pursuing nuclear disarmament but nuclear modernization.

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Washington, D.C: You should be ashamed to cite to a source that is as blatantly anti-American and anti-Semitic as Al Jazeera.

Jefferson Morley: Your comment is unsubstantiated. If you sent an example of aljazeera.net's coverage that is "anti-American" or "anti-semitic" I would be glad to discuss your point. I find the aljazeera Web site to be a useful source of news and information about the Middle East. It comes with the perspective of the journalists who shape that news but that is true of the American media as well. Readers interested in deciding for themselves should go to the aljazeera.net link below. Readers should also know that aljazeera.com and aljazeerah.info are not connected with the Arab TV network. The former is a UK site; the latter is based in the United States.

washingtonpost.com: Al Jazeera's Website.

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Voting against Labour: I've friends in the U.K. who are Labour stalwarts. This year they're voting for the Liberal Democrats because they know Labour will win, but want to send a message to Blair and are hoping Blair's majority is reduced so he won't be so keen to run roughshod over civil liberties. The Brits tend to get upset about those things, unlike the way we embraced the Patriot Act without question.

Jefferson Morley: If your friends are numerous, Tony Blair is in trouble. Read on.

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Ottawa, Canada: It seems that we are going to see the end of Tony Blair's political career very soon, whether he wins the election or not. He has been forced to share the stage with Gordon Brown who will take over for him before too long--win or lose.

Jefferson Morley: I'm reserving judgment. Blair is a formidable politician. He will eventually cede the stage--but I doubt it will be as soon as Gordon Brown hopes.

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Canada:

Just a quick correction to the Northern update - it was not a court that banned publication of testimony regarding what is known up here as the "sponsorship scandal." The ban was imposed on testimony given at the Gomery Inquiry - the ban was to prevent prejudice in upcoming criminal trials, that are being conducted in court. We care up here about due process and the principle of being innocent until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. Perhaps you should have an update on our other inquiry (lead by Dennis O'Connor) into why and how the United States secretly deported a Canadian citizen to be tortured in Syria - no worries about due process with extraordinary rendition...

Jefferson Morley: You Canadians are so nice and careful. Thanks for that clarification. I am following the story about the Canadian man tortured after "rendition" to Syria and may write about it.

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Los Angeles, Calif.: I have read Al Jazeera and it is blatantly anti-semitic and I think you are in denial on the subject. I recommend that you read Al Jazeera and observe how they regard people who blow up buses and cafes.

Jefferson Morley: I do read aljazeera and will continue to quote from it as a useful source of international news and commentary. When you provide some evidence for your sweeping charges, we will continue the discussion. I look forward to it.

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Jefferson Morley: Our time unfortunately is up. At least we got to all the questions submitted in the allotted hour. Come again next week. If you want to receive the World Opinion Roundup via email, send a message to jeff.morley@wnpi.com and put "subscribe" in the subject line. Your address will not be shared with any other party. See you next week.

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