The Kentucky Derby

Have questions about the Kentucky Derby? John Scheinman , special to The Washington Post, was online Wednesday, May 4, at 3 p.m. ET to chat with you about the derby.

John Scheinman has been covering horse racing for The Post since May 2000. He became an avid follower of the sport while ducking out on weekends from American University in the mid-1980s to Laurel Park and Pimlico. Scheinman also is a crafty Triple Crown handicapper. His pick of Invisible Ink in the 2001 Kentucky Derby finished second at odds of 55-1, and he liked Birdstone to upset Smarty Jones in the Belmont Stakes last year. Despite his stature, he has never been employed as a jockey.

A transcript follows.

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San Luis Obispo, Calif.: Mr. Scheinman:

Is this one of the strongest Derby fields in recent memory? It seems to me that there are five horses that could win.

John Scheinman: I actually think there are probably eight horses that can win, and I wouldn't drop dead from surprise if a few other long shots came in. Considering this was supposed to be a "down" year because of the loss of a lot of foals in Ky., three years ago, the crop is deep.

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Arlington, Va.: Hi John, A lot has been made of horses needing three prep races before the Derby. Beyer made the point in his column yesterday. Yet, during his chat yesterday on the Daily Racing Form, Andy went and seemed to suggest that he is picking Bellamy Road, who only has two prep races. Is he read to go against history, which he criticized trainers for not following? How about you? What do you think of Bellamy Road's chances?

Thanks

John Scheinman: Andy, bless his heart, never picks right in the Derby. I think he believes the three prep race "rule" is valid, but he also -- let's face it -- created the figs, so when a horse runs a 120, how can he ignore that?

Me? I think Bellamy Road will finish 10th or worse.

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John Scheinman: by the way, hello to all out there participating in my Derby chat. I am more than willing to take on all questions until 3:45, so have at it . . .

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Hartford, Conn.: Some near-great horses, Skip Away being the best example, just refused to run on the Churchill Downs surface. Irrespective of final workout times, have you seen any this week that stand out by either climbing over the track or by looking particularly comfortable?

John Scheinman: Well, Bellamy Road, Bandini and Afleet Alex have looked particularly strong. They make wonderful impressions. Sun King, a beautiful horse, also looks fine. The one horse with a shot I have not been impressed with is Greeley's Galaxy, who had a very poor work the other day and just doesn't look like he's going very well.

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Oakton, Va.: Any thoughts on the two california horses ... wilko and giacomo?

John Scheinman: I toss and turn at night worrying about Giacomo because he is being totally ignored and has proven ALMOST good enough. Wilko, however, is much more live and he looks great. He is a fine little fighter with a good closing move and though the Santa Anita Derby was slooooooow, I always caution people to remember those races are called preps for a reason. He could get a piece. Giacomo, I have to take a stand against.

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Falls Church, Va.: John:

My children and I enjoy watching the Triple Crown races. Where is it possible to meet and pet the horses that ran in previous Derby's, Preaknesses and Belmonts?

John Scheinman: The Kentucky Horse Park is about the greatest place in the world for that sort of thing. They parade some great champions including 30-year-old John Henry. The museum, tracing the history of the horse, is the best of its kind. Maryland some day will have a museum like this, even if the state no longer has racing!

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Saratoga , N.Y.: Will Bellamy Road be compromised with front end speed? In his two races this year, he has been lose on the lead, which he will likely not be on Saturday.

John Scheinman: Well, I felt a lot more comfortable agreeing with this before Consolidator went out. I expected Lukas to have that horse cranked up and ready to roll on the front end. That said, there is enough speed to occupy Bellamy Road -- Spanish Chestnut is in there only to be sacrificed for Bandini -- and the Steinbrenner horse has never proven he can deal with a fight. . . let alone at a mile and a quarter

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West Bethesda, Md.: The 5 mile gallops per day by Afleet Alex seems to be a unique way to prepare. Is there any basis for the training process? Does the trainer do this consistently or just for Afleet Alex? Has Afleet trained this way for his past races?

John Scheinman: He does this with some of his horses and I asked other trainers this week and they don't find it unusual. Interval training, Bob Baffert said, would be a disaster, but he's not really doing that. He's just sending him out for long jogs twice a day. The five mile day, though, did surprise me.

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Falls Church, Va.: Did SUN KING have any excuses for his poor performance in the Blue Grass?

John Scheinman: Was it a poor performance? He raced seven or eight wide and galloped out past the field . . . it's a prep, and many horses -- Thunder Gulch, Invisible Ink, Sea Hero -- have used so so performances in the race as springboards to blockbusters in the Derby

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Frederick, Md.: With 40 percent of the horses in the derby being trained by two trainers, has the relationship between jockey and trainer been modified? That is , if I was a jockey on one of Zito's horses, would I listen to the instructions that he gave me on raceday? How can a trainer give raceday instructions to 5 different jockeys?

John Scheinman: Well, Zito has really learned some diplomacy this year, hasn't he? He won't be giving instructions beyond good luck probably. Look at his jockeys -- these guys like Jerry Bailey know what their doing. They handicap the race as well as anyone. Strategey will be in their hands.

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Saratoga, N.Y.: I think Afleet Alex has a great chance, but I am quite concerned over his jockey's inexperience. Jeremy Rose has given his a few questionable rides in the past, notably the Hopeful and to some extent the Breeders Cup. What is your opinion? Does Rose compromise AA's chances for the win?

John Scheinman: No, I like Rose. I didn't have a problem with his BC ride. I've always liked him, from the first day I saw him. The modus operendi in Maryland racing generally is lay back and circle the field with the best horse. Rose, first time I saw him, went right to the rail off the far turn and squeezed inside a horse to win. WHoa! He's brave and good. He won't hurt the horse, so if you like him, don't worry about the rider.

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Louisville Native, Washington, D.C.: Hi John! I'm going Infield this year and I'm so excited! Thanks for participating in a chat about the most exciting 2 minutes in Sports! Are you going?

John Scheinman: Going? I'm there!

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Newport News, Va.: What do you think of the chance that Afleet Alex will win the Derby?

John Scheinman: Boy, this is a tough one. I think the horse actually has a chance to go off as the favorite over Bellamy Road. People say I'm crazy, but I think the public likes this horse and his story. I just can't see him winning. He has a very explosive move and is a fighter, but I think that move will be compromised by the distance and possibly traffic. He came home very fast in the Ark. Derby, but the early part of the race was slow. This will be a demanding pace and will have -- unlike last year -- interior races with the pace made in flights. I don't think he will handle that very well.

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Washington, D.C.: How do you feel about the East Coast runners vs. the West Coast runners. I myself am strong on Buzzards Bay having seen him run in the Santa Anita Derby. He is a powerful horse and can stalk, but no one wants to take him or the other West Coast horses so seriously. Your thoughts?

John Scheinman: What is this? Easy Goer vs. Sunday Silence?

Seriously, I think the Florida form was the best form this year, but the Blue Grass will produce the winner. The SA Derby was very slow and Buzzards Bay was 30-1. Is that who you want to bet? Generally, I believe in two "Beyer-like" pre-requisites -- fast as a 2-year-old and at least one race of a fig of 100. The Buzzards was slow at 2, has never run a 100 and is by Marco Bay out of a Seneca Jones mare. Next!!!

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Silver Spring, Md.: What's the legacy surrounding the BIG HATS all the ladies wear at the Ky. D.?

John Scheinman: keeps the sun from melting their makeup!

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Washington, D.C.: Why was there a loss of a lot of foals in Kentucky three years ago?

John Scheinman: there was a disease called MRLS (mare reproductive loss syndrome), I believe. I think it was carried by caterpillars. I'm drawing a little blank at the moment but if you google "MRLS" you'll get it . . .

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Louisville transplant: Hi John!;!;

This is slightly off-topic, but I'm looking for a good place in the District to watch the Derby. I'm looking for a place where people get excited about the race--and maybe get together an informal betting pool?? Any ideas for this homesick Kentucky native?

Thanks!;

John Scheinman: my house, but I won't be there !

In the past, I would have recommended Poor Roberts, but Bobby Abbo shut it down and moved to Florida. Truly, I recommend driving up to the cracked claw in frederick, having a nice seafood lunch, a few beers and it will be jammed with racing fans.

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Oakton, Va.: Post Positions will be picked this afternoon. Any clues on what to look for. What is advantageous and what is not?

John Scheinman: the outside has been pretty good lately, right? I don't think it much matters.Trainers loathe the one hole and it's one a lot of races. It's great for a speed horse, but trainers with speed horses always opt for an outside spot or something in the middle. Don't believe these guys know everything and you'll be better off.

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Alexandria, Va.: What do you think about Wilko? He's the no. 2 horse this year in terms of stakes earnings, but how does he compare to Sun King, High Fly, Afleet Alex, Bandini and Bellamy Road, which seem to be everybody's favorites? Is Wilko in that category? And what will he -- she? -- need to do to win the race?

John Scheinman: Wilko is just a smidge below the best but I will not be surprised if he hits the board or even wins and breaks the breeders' cup juvenile jinx

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Oakton, Va.: Dear Sir ... I enjoy your insight and knowledge on the sport. Is there anyplace I can get to read more of your writings ...

washingtonpost.com: Improved Churchill Downs Leaves Maryland Tracks in the Dust (Post, May 4)

John Scheinman: thanks (but you don't have to call me 'sir'). I write for Thoroughbred Times as well, but always save my best stuff for the Post.

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Rockville: Hello.....Where in Kentucky is the Derby held?

John Scheinman: Churchill Downs in Louisville.

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West Bethesda, Md.: Pace makes the race ... How do you think the early speedsters will be ... Can anyone claim the lead from Spanish Chestnut?...

John Scheinman: Bellamy Road will naturally try for the lead. DOn't expect him to sit tight like some are speculating. Going WIld also might literally go wild for Lukas, who likes the lead. High Fly will press, High Limit certainly has a world of speed. It will be contentious.

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Hartford, Conn.: Bellamy Road 10th? I guess you're convinced he won't rate and his collapse last year during his only early race challenge is more likely. Who do you know besides the Beyer fans think (hope) you're wrong?

John Scheinman: There's a cook at a restaurant I like on Bardstown Road who wanted to bet me.

WHere has this horse ever faced a fight? And is a Concerto out of a Deputed Testamony mare going to win the Derby? Not with my money on him

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Vienna, Va.: What are your thoughts on DONT GET MAD..Was his race last week a good tuneup?

John Scheinman: I love the idea of using the Derby Trial as a springboard. Boy, didn't he look great swooping past the field? I asked Baffert this morning about the race -- his horse finished flying too -- and he said his horse was just a horse. I don't think DOn't Get Mad stacks up well with this elite group.

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Washington D.C.: What are your thoughts to limit the field to 12 or 13 for the Derby? , I think that the race turns into a cavalry charge, at least for the first 1/4 mile, the horses are forced so wide that they are out of the race before it starts, or so much traffic that they cant get though

Thanks, JL

P.S. Afleet Alex, good horse, good money!;!;!;

John Scheinman: Keep it at 20. It's the Derby, it's supposed to be hard. You want a 14-horse field? Wait for the Preakness. . . pimlico folks say that's the "real" race just because of that reason -- it's honest. But a horse needs to be special and have a lot of luck to win the Derby. I like it.

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Oakton, Va.: Dear Sir. The Washington Post would be well served if they increased the frequency of your writings. With simulcasting the voque, there are many great thoroughbred stories and your writings are just superbly crafted. Thanks for your great efforts.

John Scheinman: whoever you are, I am your humble servant. . .

If you want to see more racing in the paper, you need to bug the editors, but don't tell them I sent you!

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Ozone Park, N.Y.: Who do you pick to win, place and show?

John Scheinman: ozone park! (I'm a Long Island boy)

well, nice of someone to finally ask: I like Sun King to win and he will be followed by -- in no particular order -- high fly, high limit, noble causeway, afleet alex and maybe bandini and wilko

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Catonsville, Md.: Do different jurisdictions/states have differing drug policies for racehorses? What is the policy in Kentucky and what affect might that have on this year's entrants in the Derby?

John Scheinman: this is the last year of pretty much anything goes in the Derby (although they will test for milkshakes): You can use two tranquilizers and unlimited lasix. Bombs away! (poor horses)

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Newport News, Va.: John,

Perhaps, I am too impressed with Afleet Alex, but he seems to be a capable horse. What kind of chance does he have to win the Derby?

Thank you,

Kathleen

John Scheinman: everyone here likes Afleet Alex. I really think he's going to be the favorite. Her certainly is a capable horse. Tim Ritchey, to my surprise, has been serene all week on the backstretch. For a guy usually so defensive around the media, to me, that's a sign he thinks he's sitting on a huge race.

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College Park, Md.: Hi John, Tom from the Laurel pressbox here. So for all us hardcore horseplayers looking to play the Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby Daily Double, who looks good in the Oaks? (I am betting that Sis City will feel the effects of trainer Richard Dutrow's recent slap on the wrist for illegal drugs, so I will play a Nick Zito double: In the Gold in the Oaks and Sun King in the Derby.)

John Scheinman: Tom. You are a man among men. That, indeed, is my double. I guess we'll be bringing lunch next time out, eh?

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Silver Springs, Md.: I like to play exactas and triples ... Who do you like in a box play???

John Scheinman: see prior entries here for my horses. Sun King is my key.

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Laurel, Md.: When, If ever to you think that the Preakness will be held at Laurel Park, I love Pimilco, but wouldn't add something to the event to hold it at Laurel, at least once? Thanks.

John Scheinman: If they get slots in Maryland and knock down Pimlico to rebuild, it will go to Laurel for a year, but it BELONGS at Pimlico and it BELONGS to Baltimore. Let's not take it away.

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Fairfax, Va.: High Fly strikes me as a horse with limited "BEYER" numbers but with UNLIMITED heart, courage and determination. With the race setting up, as you surmise, to contain many mini-races within a race, might the advantage go to a horse with courage, rather than to a horse with a great beyer number?

John Scheinman: I actually like High Fly's Beyer numbers AND his heart, courage and determination. I also think he could handle the mini-races. My only question with him is does he have another move forward in him and my feeling is the answer is no, we have seen his best.

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Brooklyn, N.Y.: Mr. Scheinman --

A couple of inquiries from a handicapping amateur who loves the Triple Crown:

A. Do you subscribe to the 'bounce' theory in regards to thoroughbreds, i.e., a bad race follows a great race -I have in mind Afleet Alex in the Derby.]? And, conversely, a good/great race follows a bad race? Is there any substance to this method of handicapping?

B. When reading split times in a horse's race history, is there any one split more significant, in your opinion, among all the times?

Thanks...

John Scheinman: the bounce only applies to horses prone to it. It is NEVER a rule to be applied universally. As for split times, no. But if I'm handicapping a, say, 1 1/8-mile race and a horse has run a 50 second half-mile on the lead and won and there are others that have run faster in the past on the lead, even if those others have lost I'm going to rate them higher.

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Zito Trifecta: If Funny Cide didn't have that final kick in the 2002 Kentucky Derby, Bobby Frankel would have owned that race. This year I think Nick Zito will put his stamp on the Derby.

What is Zito's record in the Derby?

After Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex, what Zito horse should I use for the trifecta?

John Scheinman: Zito has run 14 horses in the derby -- often coupled -- and won twice with strike the gold in 91 and go for gin in 94.

if you are using bellamy road, in my opinion, you should keep your money safely in your wallet and enjoy a mint julep!

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Bethesda, Md.: John, Tell me the most exciting Derby you've ever watched and also which one surprised you most?

John Scheinman: The year Silver Charm beat Captain Bodgit and Free House and Pulpit was a spine-tingler!

War Emblem was not really a surprise, but it just felt like a bummer.

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Washington, D.C.: Sun King's sire is Charasmatic, do you think he will show the same heart as his daddy?

John Scheinman: yes!

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Hartford, Conn.: I'm convinced the once-a-year fans and Yankee haters will be out in force, betting the Pletcher name and the Afleet Alex story, with Bellamy Road being a "reasonable" 7-2 or 4-1. How do you see the board?

John Scheinman: I see Afleet Alex at 2-1, possibly even with Bellamy Road. Next will be Bandini, High Limit, high Fly, Noble Causeway, Sun King . . .

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Louisville, Ky.: As a local Kentuckian, obviously the Derby is a huge deal, but I always wonder what the draw is for all the out-of-towners who come here for the weekend for a two minute race. What do you think draws such huge crowds when the rest of the year we're looked down upon as a backwards, redneck state? (Not that I'm asking you all to stop coming!)

John Scheinman: stop having such low self-esteem. Who calls you a redneck? Jeff Foxworthy is just an act! . . . I am always surprised how so many people like to debate bourbon here, but I don't mind . . . The Derby IS America, and people want to get to the heart of things and cut through the crap once in awhile to the true heart and soul of purity. Horses. You vs. me. Best one wins. It's pure and it is the greatest race -- of any kind -- in the world. Why not go?

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Bel Air, Md.: Sun King is your pick? Did he break a 100 Beyer this year? I liked him quite a bit last fall as a juvenile, but he has failed on a regular basis in the "big" races (Champagne, Blue Grass). He was a bit of a wiseguy early Derby pick a few months ago, but he still hasn't impressed me, especially after a fairly low Beyer for the Tampa Bay Derby.

As for my pick, I haven't looked at the PPs yet, so I'm clueless - but it won't be Sun King. (I'd be thrilled if he won though - would serve the Lewis's right for selling yet another of their stars to Japan for stallion duty...go Charismatic offspring!)

John Scheinman: Sun King Beyered 104 on Feb. 26 at Gulfstream. He toyed with the Tampa Derby field in a public workout and then purposely raced wide in a prep in the Blue Grass. I worry a little about the 88 Beyer he got in that race, but the price will be juicy and why hop off the horse when everyone else does?

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USA: I'm not a racing fan, but every year I wonder if there's going to be a Triple Crown winner. There never is, at least in my memory. And I'm not a kid anymore.

Is there ever going to another one? This year, maybe? (Earlier you said the field is wide open, which I assume means probably not.)

John Scheinman: I hope there isn't one this year. It's exhausting for us media types

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Dupont Circle, Washington, D.C.: Quick question. I heard Senator Kyl has a bill that would limit the ability of people to bet online for horse racing. Have you heard anything about it?

John Scheinman: racing online is safe and passed this year

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Silver Spring, Md.: Do any of these horses or their connections have backgrounds that will be of interest to the general public like Funny Cide and Smarty Jones the last two years?

John Scheinman: Afleet Alex is connected to Alex's Lemonade Stand, a charity started by a little girl who died of cancer.

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John Scheinman: ok, folks, thank you so much. I have to get to the draw. Until next time . . .

-- John

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