The Kentucky Derby

So it's this weekend. Those fast two minutes of pure adrenaline at the Kentucky Derby -- watching, waiting, standing frozen or cheering anxiously. Which horse will win? Will you be elated? Disappointed? Surprised? Or might you earn a sense of renewed confidence in your bet?

Horse racing handicapper Liam Durbin of e-ponies.com was online Friday, May 6 at 1 p.m. ET to talk about Saturday's Kentucky Derby.

A transcript follows.

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Liam Durbin: Hello everyone. Let me start by thanking washingtonpost.com for inviting me. I am the owner-handicapper for e-ponies.com. My computer-based selections appear daily in print in the Chicago Tribune and the Louisville Courier-Journal. And I'm online daily at washingtonpost.com for the Maryland circuit. I've been handicapping since I was about 14 years old, with a computer for about the last ten. I can still do it the old fashioned way, so any handicapping question is fair game.

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Arlington, Va.: I know Baffert only enters horses he feels can win. Do you think Sort It Out has a legitimate shot at winning the Derby?

Liam Durbin: Not really. I don't believe we have the separation between trainers that used to exist. Many of these trainers have very strong reputations. It isn't the Baffert-Lukas show it used to be. Further, it is often the owners that want the horse entered. They may have waited their whole lives for a Derby horse. So if he qualifies, they want him in. But the Derby is sometimes a scrum, he has SOME chance. I'd just rate those chances as low.

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Arlington, Va.: Hi Mr. Durbin,

What are your thoughts on Spanish Chestnut being sent to the lead to challenge Bellamy Road in hopes of tiring him? I know that the owners of Spanish Chestnut also own Bandini.

Liam Durbin: There is no doubt in my mind that is exactly the intent. If they wanted him to have a clear shot at winning, they could have taken the outside post in the post position draw. I believe they hope to force him wide in the first turn. And even if he is not able to do it, the connections of Bellamy Road may be expecting it and may hustle him to the front even more aggressively.

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Fort Lauderdale, Fla.: How do you think Greenly Galaxy will do and do you think the Illinois Derby is becoming more important indicator for potential Derby Winners?

Liam Durbin: I expect Greeley's Galaxy to be part of the pace, and that will hurt his chances. War Emblem did a lot for validating the Illinois Derby, but there needs to be another one soon to keep it going. The horse would not have to win, but should run well, in order to make people start looking to the Illinois Derby as a major prep race. It is still a notch below Florida, Arkansas Derby and the Wood Memorial and Bluegrass Stakes.

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Arlington, Va.: Who is your long shot choice for the Derby? Will we see a triple crown winner this year?

Liam Durbin: My long shot pick is Don't Ge Mad. He is breaking a lot of rules by being back in the starting gate just one week after his Derby Trial race. But he is a strong closer, and those types always have a shot. If Bellamy Wood wins the Derby, there will be discussions of him being a truly exceptional horse, and a potential Triple Crown run. But first he has to win the Derby. None of the others will create quite as much of a furor over Triple Crown possibilities.

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Beltsville, Md.: Hello Liam ... Enjoy reading your Web site and following your computer picks ... Does the computer see any overlays for the derby?

Liam Durbin: Yes. I think Afleet Alex is an overlay at 9-2. My computer picks High Fly to win, that is a big overlay at 12:1. I think he will go off closer to 8:1, still a nice price. Big overaly is Closing Argument, picked sixth by my computer at 30-1. He might go off even higher.

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Silver Spring, Md.: If I were to wager $50 on the Derby, what's the best way to spread it around in exotic wagers and straight up win, place, show wagering to maximize return and make things interesting? I don't want to just put it on Bellamy Road and hope for the best.

Liam Durbin: Depends... if you want the thrill of cashing a ticket, regardless of value, then a few show bets would do. If you want a legitimate shot at paying your kids' college tuition, you need to gamble more.

1. Low risk low reward - pick six horses and box them in an exacta. I believe that costs $48.

High risk, high reward - pick four horses to box in a trifecta box. Mix up a couple of favorites and some reasonable long shots. That costs $24. Then do it again with four different horses.

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Unionville, Va.: How does the pace shake out for Saturday's kd? who will lead? Can any of the early speedsters be rated?

Liam Durbin: Spanish Chestnut will definitely lead. He will fire away and say, "come get me" to the rest. High Limit will probably give chase. Bellamy Wood will too, but if his connections think he can rate, he won't try to do it until after the first turn. I'm not so sure he can rate. He won't like the scrum he finds himself in. He's got a tough call to make. The rest of the speedsters will probably rate some. Don't Get Mad comes from way back, hopes for the pace to collapse.

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Oakton, Va.: Hello, with your years of handicapping behind you, what would you say are the top 5 parameters that a novice such as myself should look at when trying to pick a winner.

Liam Durbin: Great question!

1. Class - pay attention to a horse that has been running with better. Even if he is finishing up the track to some extent. It matters.

2. Uncontested speed wins, contested speed usually doesn't

3. Don't over-analyze. 95% of the value of handicapping with the form comes from the first five minutes. The rest may take you off the right answer as much as it puts you on it.

4. Keep track of your wins, losses, wagers. Don't bet over your head. If you are no good at this game, bet for fun. Don't bet the kids milk money.

5. Bounce theories, superstitions, and angles are everywhere. Most of them are terrible. Try to ignore them.

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West Windsor, N.J.: Does your computer program rate Bellamy Road higher or lower than Afleet Alex?

Liam Durbin: Lower. That is largely because my computer does not take into consideration margin of victory. Afleet Alex has more class. My computer loves class. He also has enough speed that BW's speed does not dominate that category.

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Washington, D.C.: What do you think of Bellamy Road's starting position?

Liam Durbin: I think the connections are trying to make the best of it politically, but it is not really that good. I guarantee they were not happy about Spanish Chestnut getting to pick after them. Terrible luck, because now BW has a speedster on his left shoulder. If he overcomes it to win, he is a gifted "freak," and the Triple Crown craze will begin again!

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Ashville, Va.: Afflet Alex or Don't Get Mad ... which can close at the end the most?

Liam Durbin: Well, that is a trick question. Afleet Alex will only be six or eight lengths back, most likely. He will close as needed. Don't Get Mad could be 16 lengths back in the early going. He will have to close that much to win. Example: Don't Get Mad will close more lengths total, but may still finish sixth. Afleet Alex should be closer to the front, and only close four lengths to finish second.

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Oakton, Va.: Thanks ... can you explain what uncontested and contested speed means????

Liam Durbin: Sure, contested speed means that he is battling for the lead with some other horse(s). Uncontested may mean that he runs exactly the same speed, but is not being bothered by a competitor fighting with him. Once a thoroughbred is "headed" they can give up. Fighting wears them down mentally.

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Chesterfield, W.V.: Has there ever been a horse coming into the derby with a 120 Beyer? Has there ever been a horse with a 120 Beyer?

Liam Durbin: There have been 120 Beyers before, but not in a Derby prep. I don't make too much of the Beyer figure. Those numbers are produced by humans. There is no magic formula. So it was just a darn good race to me.

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Herndon, Va.: Mr. Durbin: Please tell me which horse will win and how I should bet the Trifecta. Thank you (I'll send you part of my winnings!)

Liam Durbin: Bet on Afleet Alex. Wheel him over the following: High Fly, Bellamy Road, Closing Argument, Bandini, Don't Get Mad. I think that costs $20 for a $1 trifecta. Email me for my mailing address to send me the check. :D

Wagering on horses is inherently risky. These guys are athletes, and all athletes have good and bad days. Enjoy the race, I hope my recommendation is solid.

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Middletown, Pa: The horse I like tomorrow is High Fly. He shows great tactical speed, and Bailey will find a good spot for him just off the pace. He has shown great grit in the stretch in his last two wins. I just want to know if he can get the distance, and has he already peaked with his Florida performances. Thanks.

Liam Durbin: I have the same concerns with him. He races just a hair too close to the lead for my taste. My computer picks him, so I respect that. He can definitely do it. He has not shown any major distance limitations in his previous starts. Really there are no knocks against him. Concerns are just that - concerns.

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Baltimore, Md.: Can you share with us your top 4 picks ... do they differ from the top 4 picks of the computer?

Liam Durbin: Ok, my top four in order are this:

Afleet Alex

High Fly

Bellamy Road

Don't Get Mad

My computer says this:

High Fly

Afleet Alex

Bellamy Road

Flower Alley

Not a lot of difference, but heck, I wrote the computer program - it ought to think like me huh?

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Norristown, Pa.: There are two shippers in from California. Wilko and Giacomo ... Does your computer like any of them ... what about your thoughts?

Liam Durbin: I don't think much of California shippers in general. I used to say that if a horse had not proven itself on the east coast (including Arkansas) I wouldn't bet on him in the Derby. But that has bit me a couple of times. Wilco has not completely bombed like many BC Juvenile champs before him, but he hasn't actually revalidated hiw win either. Is the Derby the easiest place to do that? No. I don't think Giacomo has much of a shot.

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Washington, D.C.: What do you make of Afleet Alex's bad race at the Rebel on 19 March with a different jockey?

Liam Durbin: I think it was the lung infection more than the jockey (unless he had one too). I'm not much of a jockey better. To generalize - it is never the jockey's race to win, but it is often his to lose. So I can't bet based on jockeys. I wrote him off after that poor race, but then he proved it was a fluke by winning the Arkansas Derby so strongly. Trainers often make excuses even if they don't have a legitimate one. But I really believe he was sick this time.

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Bowie, Md.: track bias ... does any exist for churchill downs ...

Liam Durbin: I have never seen a track bias play out in the Derby. Other factors are much more dominant. Focus on the other factors. The best horse that gets the right trip will win. It may mean that he exploits a pace opportunity, but I don't call that a track bias. That's just smart running.

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Fairfax, Va.: Seems like Steinbrenner has a warrior. What are your feelings about Bellamy Road. You seem to think he will get burnt out ... If a horse rates during his workouts, is this any indication he can rate during a race?

Liam Durbin: He is a great horse. It would not shock me at all to see him win. I'm not trying to bet around him to be a wise guy, I really think that the race is set up to test him more than some others. I'm referring to the outside post and the location of Spanish Chestnut. Maybe I'm making too much of that. We will see. No I don't think you can teach a horse to rate in workouts. If that were the case, everyone would do it. Horses are who they are. It cost Smarty Jones the Triple Crown that he ran too hard at first.

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Evansville, Ind.: What time does the actual race start?

Liam Durbin: I believe the actual post time is 6:08pm EST.

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Newark, Del.: What type of wagers do you recommend in general for bettors? How does one make a decision of what type of wager to make?

Liam Durbin: Depends on how much risk-reward you can tolerate. I play pick threes because they pay well, and I can often hit them. But some people have no stomach for hitting two races in a row (sometimes at some long odds) and then throwing the ticket in the trash after missing the third leg. For the general public, exacta bets are very popular. In the Derby, they can pay extremely well too.

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Falls Church, Va.: What are your thoughts on Sun King in the Kentucky Derby?

Liam Durbin: Like most people, I jumped off him after the Bluegrass. He needed a better showing in that one. He did get a wide trip, but still... needed better. I also think he runs too close to the pace. If I were to bet a front runner, it would be Bellamy Wood.

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New Albany, Ind.: Great Web site Mr. Durbin. Do you think Flower Alley has a chance? I really like him (especially at 30 or 40 to 1).

Liam Durbin: I like him at those odds. That is what we call "value." He may not win, but he seems to be getting off at a price that makes him worth a wager. He runs a little too close to the pace for my taste. Might get consumed by it tomorrow.

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Blazing saddles: Hi, how do they train the horses to handle the noise and excitement? It must be stressful for the animal or do some of them get pumped? thanks

Liam Durbin: They could let them hang around my kids for an afternoon. But that may not always be possible. Frankly, I don't know that they do anything. Some horses are notoriously skittish and I never hear about them doing anything about it. I bet when they are running it is hard to hear the crowd, but I'm not sure. I would think that they just hope instinct takes over when they are in the thick of it.

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Washington, D.C.: How does one find out the class of a horse or do I need to do some studying up to find this out? Perhaps I am not clear on the definition of the word.

Liam Durbin: In the racing form or program, you can read about the horses class in his previous starts, and most also list the purse. It does take a little knowledge to know the ranking. It would take a lot of typing to explain it all. Hit the message board on my Web site. Someone will jump on it for you.

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Newark, Del.: Is there a PICK 3 wager for the derby? If yes, can you give some insight into who to play for the other 2 legs?

Liam Durbin: Yes, there is one for races 8-9-10. Madcap Escapade should be a solid betting choice in the eighth, so you could take a reasonable gamble and single her, pick two in the ninth, and then pick a bunch in the Derby. In the ninth, I like Perfect Drift and Mustanfar.

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NY, N.Y.: Can you explain your use of the word "rate".

Liam Durbin: Rate means to wait patiently behind other horses. Some horses can do it. Some just want to step on the gas and go, and will chase a front runner - often to their detriment.

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Hartford, Conn.: Not a lot of difference, but heck, I wrote the computer program - it ought to think like me huh?

You also said horses are athletes. And they are trained and ridden by humans and evaluated by handicappers, humans, too, the last I checked. Why should we trust a computer program, which is only doing what a human programmed it to do?

Liam Durbin: You don't have to if you don't want to. My computer program performs what I call a dispassionate analysis. Sometimes I think that I am looking at a race objectively, but bias has crept in places I did not expect. The computer view is always the same, and considers only the facts. It is valuable. It has also done pretty well on the Derby in the last few.

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Manassas, Va.: New to horse racing. How and where does one place bets? Every Spring I start paying attention to the Derby - Preakness - Belmont hype. I look at the names, the riders, the owners and base my decision on who to root for simply on that. Admitedly not good at statistics, I never understood odds except an obvious, this horse has a 1 in a million chance of winning is not good odds.

Is there a good web site for a beginner like me to catch up? Is there a Horse Racing for Dummies book?

PS. I'm rooting against Steinbrenner (Bellamy Road). Any Oriole or NATS fan would!

Liam Durbin: There are many Web sites. Just do a web search for "horseracing handicapping" and you should have lots to choose from. There is a horseracing for Dummies book. It covers the basics ok, but there are much better ones out there.

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Marshall, Va.: Who are the absolute dogs that I can throw away? I want to play some triples. Who can I leave out for sure?

Liam Durbin: I hope you take this with a grain of salt, because every horse race is full of random factors. But based on form, I'm throwing out Sort It Out, Going Wild, Giacomo, Greater Good, Andromeda's Hero. I know that does not help much, but this one is pretty even once you get past the three favorites.

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Crofton, Md.: Have you had a chance to look at the workouts of the various Kentucky derby runners. Has any of them had a bullet workout or an extraordinary early morning gallop?

Liam Durbin: Several have. I recommend you go to the Daily Racing Form's web site and then click through to the clocker report. You can read the report by day, who was hot, how they were acting, etc.

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Clifton, Va.: Closing Argument had such a nice race in the Grade 3 Holybull on Feb 5 at Gulfstream, beating High Fly and posting good speed numbers, but they he was laid up until the BlueGrass. Any info on why? His trainer is Kiaran McLaughlin ... Does Kiaran have any experience with stakes winners?

Liam Durbin: No, sorry about that. Don't know much about her. My computer likes him a lot (sixth despite the 30-1 odds). I think he could be a sleeper, but it would take a great trip and a step up to get it done tomorrow.

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Manassas, Va.: Does Bellamy Road have the pedigree to go 1 1/4?

Liam Durbin: I'd call it neutral. It is not perfect, but it is not flawed either. Kind of like Smarty Jones. Some were cracking on his pedigree before he won the big one. I don't worry about it too much. I'm taller and faster than my dad. By the time a horse has six races under his belt, some going two turns, pedigree has either been validated by then, or the horse is just different from his lineage.

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Mclean, Va.: What do you use in your computer program to quantify the effects of Pace? How do you know whether a race will set up with contested or uncontested speed?

Liam Durbin: It is something my computer program does not do much with. It will put two speed horses on top, even if human intuition would dismiss them both because they saw a pace battle setting up. What it does well is show you who the speed horses are, then you can decide for yourself if it sets up for the speed to hold or collapse.

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Liam Durbin: Thanks again to the folks at washingtonpost.com. I hope everyone found this useful and entertaining. Thanks for all the great questions. Best of luck!

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