The Preakness Stakes

Have questions about Preakness? John Scheinman , special to The Washington Post, was online Thursday, May 19, at 1:30 p.m. ET to chat with you about the race.

John Scheinman has been covering horse racing for The Post since May 2000. He became an avid follower of the sport while ducking out on weekends from American University in the mid-1980s to Laurel Park and Pimlico. Scheinman also is a crafty Triple Crown handicapper. His pick of Invisible Ink in the 2001 Kentucky Derby finished second at odds of 55-1, and he liked Birdstone to upset Smarty Jones in the Belmont Stakes last year. Despite his stature, he has never been employed as a jockey.

A transcript follows.

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John Scheinman: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm up in the press box at Pimlico overlooking the track and if you can sneak out of work today, you might want to beat the weekend crowds and come out today

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San Luis Obispo, Calif.: Hi John,

Most of us need to redeem ourselves after making bad picks in the Kentucky Derby. How do you see horses finishing in the Preakness? Will you tell us your 1-2-3 picks? Thanks for doing these chats.

John Scheinman: What a brutal day that was for horseplayers. I wound up picking out of the post parade and Giacomo certainly looked ready to run a big race that day and did. That said, this race is inscrutable and I'm not sure who will win. We'll get into it as we go . . .

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Washington, D.C.: Any advice on parking? How much is it? Are there shuttles to the race?

John Scheinman: If you've got stamina, get there bright and early. Don't be afraid to take the deals the neighborhood folks are offering to park on their lawns. They usually look out for your cars and it's the one time during the year they can make a buck off of having a racetrack in their back yard.

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Columbia, Md.: Hi John, I read with great interest your story about the outbreak of the neurological virus at Churchill Downs and its impact on the Preakness. FYI -- five horses have had to be euthanized at the Columbia Horse Center due to the virus, not four. The most recent death was May 7. The Howard County Extra editon chronicles the situation today.

washingtonpost.com: 2 Horses Die From Rare Virus (Post, May 19)

John Scheinman: Well, I did miss the last death, but I had been following the Columbia situation a little bit. I talked to trainer Ron Ellis today at Churchill Downs and he won't be allowed to run Don't Get Man (fourth in Derby) in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park because he can't get out of his brother in law's barn.

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Pittsburgh, Pa.: Hi John, amuse me for a moment. Since The Derby fell apart due to the suicidal pace, is there any chance that Cowboy Hamilton guns Mailbu Moonshine to the front and the Derby runners sit back afraid of the pace and The Cowboy steals it or at least gets part of the exotics?

John Scheinman: No, I really can't see the Cowboy gunning to the lead. Do you really see Malibu Moonshine outrunning High Limit, or, for that matter, Going Wild who must shoot from the 14 hole?

But, like the headline Tuesday said: Don't count Leatherbury out!

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Washington, D.C.: Might High Limit win wire-to-wire Saturday?

John Scheinman: He certainly looked gorgeous getting off the van, I can tell you that much. It depends on how much you believe in his Louisiana Derby performance -- and super trainer Bobby Frankel. I, personally, don't feel good about him. I didn't think Frankel had a "game face" (whatever that is) on in Kentucky. He's usually sneaky sly in how he deals with the media and you need to read him right. Before the Derby, he just didn't seem that into it.

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Arlington, Va.: Can another long shot pull it off in this race?

John Scheinman: It depends on what you mean by long shot. Malibu Moonshine? Actually, yes, I think he has a small chance. But, is Greeley's Galaxy a long shot? Scrappy T? .... I think there are mid=priced horses that certainly figure to make an impact.

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Arlington, Va.: Mr. Scheinman,

In your opinion, who will set the early pace?

John Scheinman: I think High Limit will make the lead, but, with the outside post, D. Wayne Lukas' Going Wild must commit to the front. There is other speed in the race == Galloping Grocer is fast and so is Scrappy T. And what will Zito do with Sun King? Might as well send him, too, since the experiments with coming from behind have been so terrible. It should be lively.

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Harpers Ferry, W.Va.: Thanks for doing the chat!

My plan was to bet on Afleet Alex and wheel him over Closing Argument, High Fly, Noble Causeway, Wilko, and Giacomo. Based on the post positions, is that now a bad idea? Is 12 too far out for Afleet Alex to have a real shot at winning? Is Closing Argument a better bet to win now?

John Scheinman: Afleet Alex is what they used to call the most honest horse in the field. So, if you like him, you might not want to hop off now. That said, I don't see any value in betting the likely favorite from a vulnerable post position who gave everything he had in the Derby and had a perfect trip and still didn't win. I think he wants a mile and an eighth. For whatever reason, no one is talking about Closing Argument and you might get a nice price on him. I, personally, think he is the better wheel horse.

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Bowie, Md.: Hey John! This is your buddy Gary "Digital." Just wanted to let you know that you are doing a fantastic job covering the Triple Crown! The work you're doing is just wonderful and keep it up!!

John Scheinman: Thanks, Gary. And I will miss the Tyson fight because it's the same day as the Belmont Stakes!

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Baltimore, Md.: Why haven't you been employed as a jockey?

John Scheinman: I have claustrophobia. Have you ever seen the steam box? A terrifying contraption!

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Davie, Fla.: Care to comment on the fact that 2 trainers entered 7-8 colts in Derby, yet showed nothing?

John Scheinman: Well, the scuttlebutt is that Todd Pletcher actually liked Flower Alley better than his hyped Bandini. Flower Alley ran very well, but the jockey, Jorge Chavez, decided to follow the one horse in the field everyone knew would croak -- Spanish Chestnut. So when that happened, he checked sharply and was out of it. The other two were probably overrated. As for Zito, well, what can you say? I didn't like Bellamy Road going into the race, but he looked great on the track and ran well until jostled making the lead at the top of the stretch. He needs things his own way. The other Zito horses looked -- and ran -- lifeless. There were excuses, just not very good ones.

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Charlotte, N.C.: I still like Sun King, and now he gets a great young rider in Rafael Berajano but should I read anything into Edgar Prado jumping to High Limit, and is Sun King better off at running a mile? Thanks.

John Scheinman: It's a great question. Sun King is such a puzzler. He was my Derby pick going in, but I HATED the way he looked heading to the paddock and in the post parade. This horse has steadily retreated and I would be surprised by a turnaround. It's amazing. He was Zito's best and now he looks like he can't get out of his own way.

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Washington, D.C.: Hi John- I just wanted to know which Preakness you think was the best. Mine is 1989's duel between Sunday Silence and Easy Goer.

John Scheinman: I was right on the rail for Sunday Silence and Easy Goer and it was a treat. Their time wasn't particularly fast, but the battle was thrilling. I loved the rematch between Silver Charm, Captain Bodgit and Free House as well. And Smarty Jones turned in a tour de force. The race almost always is wonderful.

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Davie, Fla.: Sham could have destroyed this field ...

John Scheinman: It's amazing, isn't it. We thought the 3-year-old crop looked very strong going into Kentucky, and now people are grumbling that it stinks. Maybe we should withhold judgment until they start facing older horses . . . Then, again, what's in the handicap division?

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Adams Morgan, Washington, D.C.: What's the status of Declan's Moon? If I remember correctly, this Maryland horse was touted for big things this year as a three year old, but then he broke a bone.

John Scheinman: Don't count him out yet. The champ had a chip removed from the knee and will begin to walk under tack on June 1. Horses sometimes don't come back from this as good as they were (remember Arazi), but this horse is young and in good hands. Don't push him and he might heal up good.

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Washington, D.C.: So ... who is your favorite(s) for Saturday's race?

John Scheinman: my favorite? I love the crab cakes. Always the crab cakes.

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Brooklyn, N.Y.: Mr. Scheinman --

A couple of inquiries:

It's apparent a resume of prep races prior to the Kentucky Derby is an important factor in a race horse's success in that race. Are prior prep races likewise important in Preakness performances?

Also, for the Preakness, are horses who are pacesetters and run on the lead more successful historically than horses who come from behind?

I enjoy your fine work.

John Scheinman: The horses that run in the Kentucky Derby usually run better than the "new shooters." So, that, largely, is the Preakness angle. As for pace -- handicap it the way you would any race. Pimlico is no longer the inside speed favoring track of bygone days. It plays fairly. I anticipate a hot pace on Saturday.

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Baltimore, Md.: What is the impact of the diagnosis of equine herpes virus 1 neurological mutation on running of the major races on Saturday, and would you allow horses from Churchill Downs affected barns to race here?

John Scheinman: Three horses that were scheduled to fly in from Churchill Downs are back there in quarantine. I thought Second of June had a big chance in the Pimlico Special.

As for whether I would have allowed the horses to come to Pimlico, I would have done what management did -- defer to vets and cross my fingers I don't infect my entire horse population .

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Pittsburgh, Pa.: What should I wear to the race?

John Scheinman: clothes

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Washington, D.C.: What are the pre- and post-race testing and monitoring rules for Pimlico and the Preakness compared to Churchill and the Derby? Notwithstanding the suicidal pace of the Derby, it is very suspect that so many of these horses couldn't repeat their performances in their preps. Might we see a bounce back, not just because the Derby was a strange throwout race, but because Pimlico's testing and monitoring is not as tight?

And why doesn't The Post put more coverage into this issue? Even Beyer acknowledges that illegal doping of horses is a HUGE problem and that trainer angles are as about as big as they've ever been.

John Scheinman: Monitoring is tight on the backstretch for the Preakness. There are security people back there trained to look out for funny business.

Maryland medication rules, also, are FAR stricter than those in Kentucky. And, the testing in the state is thorough. In the Derby, the horses could run on unlimited Lasix plus two pain killers. That's like the wild west. Whatever the result in the Preakness, drugs won't be the deciding factor.

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Washington, D.C.: What are your thoughts on Noble Causeway's rough trip in the Derby and looks to improve here, and who do you like in the Pimlico Special? Thanks.

John Scheinman: I replayed the Derby yesterday and saw Noble Causeway get slammed at the start. Gary Stevens told the owner that a lesser horse would have flipped over. They folded up in the stretch to save the horse for the Preakness. Yes, look for improvement.

Pimlico Special? Glad I'm not the only one paying attention to the other great races -- Could Presidentialaffair spring an upset wire-to-wire? He will take them a long long way.

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Davie, Fla.: Re: Crab Cakes -- Now that's a tip worth more than getting the winner!

John Scheinman: Exactly. And if they have too much breading in them, send them back. You want that good backfin lump. Sure, they're from Louisiana and down your way this time of year, but eat up!

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Mt. Lebanon, Pa.: So which of the nags that ran the Derby will enter this race? Which are already running for the dog food business?

How about my favorite: Spanish Chestnut?

She had the field nervous for most of the last race. And she was a 60+ to 1 shot!

"There's no need to fear - Underdog is here."

Thanks much. Underdog

John Scheinman: first of all, you're denigrating the animals -- not acceptable here. Horseplayers must never forget the horses and jockeys put their lives on the line for our pleasure. Even when they are no good, two bit, quitting bums, we must show respect.

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Jacksonville, Ala.: What do you make of Wilko's bleeding during the Derby? His trainer is saying it was no big deal and that he's good to go, but with just two weeks to recover, I'm wondering if even the hint of trouble should discourage betting on him.

John Scheinman: The shine, already dull, is completely off Wilko. Move on.

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Arlington, Va.: Hi John,

If there is rain the day of the Preakness and the track is listed as muddy, how will this change your picks? Thanks.

John Scheinman: as you can tell, I'm having a hard time picking a winner. I plan on waiting for the Post Parade to see who I really like. I need visual information in a field this tough to figure.

Bred for the off-track: Malibu Moonshine, High Fly, Nobel Causeway, Greeley's Galaxy, Scrappy T, Closing Argument, Galloping Grocer, Wilko, etc.

For handicapping: On a truly off track, speed horses gain a distinct advantage.

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College Park, Md.:

Hi John -

Tom again from Laurel. Great reporting this week, as always. Two questions: what is the inside scoop as far as Magna threatening to move to Preakness to another of its tracks if Maryland doesn't get slots within the next two years? And more important, I really like Presidential Affair in the Pimlico Special tomorrow. He is 15-to-1 in the program; do you think this Grade III winner can step up and win a Grade I? Thanks.

John Scheinman: Hi, Tom. The only Grade I winner in the Pimlico Special is Funny Cide. Do you want to bet on Funny Cide?

Yes, to Presidentialaffair

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Don, Montclair, N.J.: John -- I have a real strong feeling that Scrappy T will be a big factor in this race. He has never finished off the board in nine career starts. I think he may even win this race. Your thoughts?

John Scheinman: I think the trainer, Robbie Bailes, has done a marvelous job with Scrappy T. He comes from a wonderful racing family. His late father, Mert, was the first person to climb on the back of Secretariat. How's that for credentials? Bailes is low-key, but when he ventured to New York this winter for the first time, he lit up the board time and time again. Scrappy is, indeed, very scrappy, and I expect him to mix it up in the pace and maybe hang on for a piece at the end. Ignore at your own peril.

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RE: Pimlico Special: Oh, good, we can actually talk about THE best race this week? It's not the Preakness.

How does Funny Cide look? I read that he is bigger and stronger than ever and looks great. He's got some quality competition tomorrow, but the Gutsy Gelding has a tendency to run big races when everyone counts him out as washed up. (Think last year's Jockey Gold Cup at Belmont.)

John Scheinman: we can talk about anything you all like. Tennis anyone?

seriously, Funny Cide skipped his prep for this race -- a bad sign. Yes, Barclay Tagg says he looks bigger and stronger, but I don't like a horse making his seasonal debut in a Grade I race at a mile and three-sixteenths. I wouldn't even be surprised if Funny Cide scratched from the race for the second year in a row. There might be a little water on the track, and, well . . .

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Arlington, Va.: I'm going to the Preakness despite not being a real horse-racing fan -- I've heard it's a great time and is very exciting. What should/shouldn't I expect? Any advice?

John Scheinman: Have a wonderful day. It will be unforgettable, I promise. Have comfortable footwear and prepare for jostling crowds and a long day. Bring sunblock. Be prepared to loosen up and have a great time in Maryland's best celebration. Your attitude is important. Be irreverent and playful and you will catch the spirit.

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New York, N.Y.: Which horses in the Preakness field would be your biggest overlays, and why?

John Scheinman: Closing Argument. Will he get the respect he deserves off his big Derby? Will he be 6-1? Certainly playable right back.

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Davie, Fla.: John, Thank you for your time and your always good work. Good luck and make a ton of bucks.

John Scheinman: Thanks

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Re: Scrappy T: I like Scrappy T as much as anyone, but I think you overrate him. The colt can't stretch out much more than a mile. Even an extra 1/16th seems to long for him. He may be a pace-setter, but I can't see him with enough gas in the tank down the stretch to hit the board.

Thanks for the doing the chat.

John Scheinman: throw out the wood -- no one could beat Bellamy Road that day. ......

He has a chance, but demand a price

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John Scheinman: ok, all thank you so much and have a great time at the Preakness. See you again .. .

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