Virginia Primaries

Washington Post staff writer Michael D. Shear was online Wednesday, June 15, at Noon ET to examine the results of the Virginia primaries.

Full Results

More From The Post:

House Centrists Prevail In Va. (Post, June 15)

The transcript follows.

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Michael D. Shear: Good afternoon everyone. I hope you all are as bleary-eyed as I am, having stayed up late for these primary results. It was an interesting primary season and promises to be an even more fascinating general election. So lets get to all these questions.

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Richmond, Va.: Mike --

Do you think last night spells the end to the Virginia Conservative Action PAC and those sorts of groups. They, and Grover Norquist, had thrown down a pretty big gauntlet about winning in these elections (they put 17 peoples pictures on a poster) and they one only one.

- Curious in Richmond

Michael D. Shear: Let's start with the House races. The conservative movement in Virginia certainly bet large on trying to oust some of the moderate GOP delegates who voted for Gov. Warner's tax package last year. And they pretty much lost, defeating only Gary Reese in Fairfax. But they will argue that they didn't need to win them all, they only needed to send a message. They will also claim that they scared a couple of other delegates into retiring. My bet is you won't see VCAP go away, though they may have a tougher time raising money.

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Atlanta, Ga.: Given Kaine's popularity in the normally GOP-leaning Richmond area and Byrne's hailing from increasingly Democratic northern Virginia, would you say these two Democrats have the advantage this November?

Michael D. Shear: Now to the governor's race. There are a million ways to speculate about "geographical balance" on a Virginia ticket. My sense is that it matters little, since in Virginia the candidates all run separately and most people make their decision based on who's running for governor. Still, some will argue that Byrne could help Kaine in Northern Virginia and that Sean Connaughton's loss means Kilgore could have a harder time in that region. Personally, I wouldn't read too much into a vote by less than 7 percent of the registered voters.

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One reason for very low turnout: I thought it was an incredibly stupid idea that Virginians who wanted to vote were forced to vote the absolute straight party line. Who in the world thought up that idea? Almost nobody I know votes the absolute straight 100 percent party line. When I got to my polling place yesterday and was told I HAD to vote either 100 percent Democrat or Republican, and that I couldn't even write in anybody, I turned around and left immediately. Why bother voting if I can't vote for the candidates of my choice?

It's bad enough that the politicians consider "the party" to be the most important thing, above all else. There is NO WAY in the world I will ever vote like that. What can I, as a taxpaying voter, do to be sure this never happens again? Yesterday's election was meant only for the parties, certainly not for the voters. And since it wasn't meant for the voters, that's why 95 percent of us didn't participate.

Michael D. Shear: I'm sure there are a lot of people who were surprised by this. For the sake of the readers here, Virginia allows people to vote in one primary or the other, not both.The thinking, I believe, is that the party primaries are largely about like-minded folks choosing their own candidates. But I take your point about not wanting to vote straight party line.

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Raleigh, N.C.: Not since 1996 when John Warner defeated Jim Miller has the more moderate candidate defeated the more conservative candidate in a statewide Republican primary. And even in 1996, Senator Warner had all of the advantages of incumbency.

Given yesterday's lopsided defeats by the well-funded candidacies of Connaughton and Baril, is there much hope for more moderate candidates in future GOP statewide primaries?

Michael D. Shear: This is an interesting question, and one that goes to what kind of state Virginia really is, philosophically. It's known, of course, as a conservative place, but Gov. Warner proved he could win. And as you point out, Sen. Warner has managed to be pretty successful here. What's really going on, I think, is within the Republican party, where you see a struggle between moderates and conservatives that has continued, unabated, for more than a decade. The results yesterday suggest that neither side can claim a total victory. The House moderates who won, some of whom were freshmen incumbents, beat back well-financed conservatives. But the statewide conservatives clearly bested their moderate opponents.

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Alexandria, Va.: I'm a bit surprised by The Post's coverage to date. On Tuesday, the Post ran an AP-submitted article about how the heat and lack of interest was likely to suppress voter turnout (as opposed to pointing to hotly-contested races and spinning the weather as a challenge to otherwise-determined voters). Today, The Post focused on Republican races across the state, barely mentioning the strong competition taking place in Northern Virginia districts, where, because of strong party affiliation, the Democratic primaries are generally the de facto elections. This, especially given the presence of at least one successful grass-roots candidate (David Englin in the 45th District) that the Post had not anticipated being a factor. Doesn't the Post have an obligation to support democracy by promoting voter turnout? And how does Englin's success speak to the forthcoming gubernatorial race (assuming that his same grassroots methods will be applied to motivate support for Kaine)?

Most importantly, what, if anything, are the implications for future policy in Richmond (which is really what elections are supposed to be about)?

Michael D. Shear: As a journalist, I'm usually not comfortable "promoting" anything. But I will say I was stunned by how few people turned out -- it looks like it will end up being less than 7 percent of the eligible voters. The way newspapers play a role, I think, is to provide as much coverage for these races as we possibly can. And to toot our own horn, here, I think we've done just that. We've had dozens of stories about the House members and the statewide candidates. We published a voters guide last week. And my colleague Chris Jenkins and I have a daily blog online to fill in the gaps between stories. Obviously, all that didn't help the turnout. But we'll keep trying.

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Manassas Park, Va.: How do you like blogging? Any plans to increase the level of blogging in the General Election campaign?

Michael D. Shear: Speaking of our blog, I'm going to try to put our link up here shortly. I encourage everyone to go to it. We try to give folks a daily, sometimes hourly, sense of the back and forth of the campaign in a bit more casual style. And yes, we will continue our blog, called Race to Richmond, during the general election.

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Burke, Va.: Chap Peterson -- an excellent politician who forgot to dance with them that brought him. Hope he'll go back into politics, but as a wiser man.

Michael D. Shear: Chap took a risk by running statewide after only two terms as a delegate. He also had positioned himself as a centrist -- a good tactic for a general election campaign in Virginia but maybe not so good for a Democratic primary where only the most intense partisans show up. My guess is that after a bit of soul searching we will hear from Chap Petersen again.

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washingtonpost.com: Race to Richmond: Notes From the Virginia Governor's Race

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Fairfax, Va.: How will the candidacy of moderate independent Russell Potts change the dynamic in the Governors race this year?

Michael D. Shear: I think Russ Potts will absolutely change the dynamic -- I just haven't a clue how. Both sides (Kilgore and Kaine) are predicting that Potts will hurt the other side. I can see the arguments either way. Much of the impact will have to do with whether Potts can raise money (so far he hasn't) and whether he gets into the debates. Knowing Senator Potts, at the very least he is certain to make it interesting along the way.

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Virginia: Is Sen. Allen or/and Sen. Warner up for reelection this Nov.?

Michael D. Shear: Please, one election at a time! Seriously, though. Sen. John Warner is up for reelection next in 2008 and has hinted he will run again. Sen. George Allen is up for reelection in 2006 and is busy raising money for that task.But of course, Allen is also said to be thinking about running for the Republican nomination for president. In fact, if the stars align just right, Allen could end up facing Gov. Mark Warner in a presidential contest in 2008. But that's a long way off.

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Arlington, Va.: How do you explain dark horse David Englin's victory in the 45th District over the more "established" candidates?

Michael D. Shear: I must confess I don't know much about David Englin. I'm not sure many people do. He's a newcomer to the poltical scene and that makes his victory that much more interesting. Look to The Post tomorrow for a story examining his victory over a very crowded field of established candidates.

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Chantilly, Va.: Hi Michael: I am an independent who usually votes Democratic but I live in the 33rd House District and had to support Gary Reese so I voted for the first time ever in a Repub primary. Chris Craddock just seemed too far right-wing.

Reese got crushed. Was he just a weak incumbent? My district doesn't seem to be a hotbed of rightwingnuttery, but maybe it is?

Michael D. Shear: I'm sure there will be folks trying to understand Reese's loss. I can say there was much chatter among both supporters and opponents in the week running up to the primary that he was in trouble. I'm not sure why, but some suggest that it could be that he voted both ways on the tax increase last year. He initially voted with the other maverick GOP delegates to break the legislative deadlock and support the taxes, and then later voted against the tax increase in its final form. Maybe that angered both sides?

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Falls Church, Va.: Do you think Russ Potts will get a substantial number of votes in November? He seems to be a perfect fit for fiscal conservatives and moderates who really have nowhere to go anymore, and for those, as Marc Fisher put it, are looking for an adult to vote for. I know my father, a staunch Republican who doesn't have it in his heart to vote for a candidate that wants to marginalize people like his son who have apparrently "chosen" to live a "sinful lifestyle." I've even considered voting for him myself.

Michael D. Shear: You gotta love Mark Fisher.<br/><br/>As for Potts, he's a wildcard. He talks about fiscal conservatism and careful budgeting much like Kaine does, so that suggests he steals voters from Kaine. But he's a Republican with deep roots in the mountain Valley area, which is heavily Republican. He could steal those votes from Kilgore. And he's unpredictable. When he announced in February, he vowed to put the car tax back the way it was before Jim Gilmore was governor. That means everyone would pay full freight on that $20,000 car. Now, he's backing away a bit from that, but you never know what's going to come out of his mouth.

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washingtonpost.com: Marc Fisher: One Va. Hopeful Has Had Enough Of the Kid Stuff (Post, June 14)

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Tom Davis?: How did Tom Davis's candidates do yesterday? I think that Jim Kaplan was one of his guys (at least he had gotten the endorsement of his wife, Devolites-Davis), and he lost. How about others?

Michael D. Shear: Davis's big loss last night was Sean Connaughton, the Prince William Board Chairman who lost his bid for lieutenant governor. Davis had been his biggest supporter and was hoping for a show of strength that would pave the way for a statewide campaign for himself someday. He has wanted to be a Senator since he was little.

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Fairfax, Va.: Will the outcome of the primary have any effect on efforts to finally deal with the out of control traffic issues in Northern Virginia or is the status quo of unfettered development causing soon to be choked traffic our fate for our lifetimes? (As an aside, primaries were never designed for the proud "independent" voter above. The general election is the rightful place for voting for any candidate of any party you choose.)

Michael D. Shear: I guess the answer to that depends on how long we all intend to live. All of the candidates are talking about trying to address traffic. But it's a huge problem. The amount of money needed for roads, bridges, tunnels, rail, buses is breath taking. And the solutions take years, if not decades, even after the money is found.

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Annandale, Va.: Bryne's victory could spell trouble for the Dems. I can see the push polls downstate now, "Does the fact that both Kaine and Bryne are in league with the pope in Rome affect your opinion of them?" And OTOH the Bishops in Arlington and Richmond will be telling their flocks that it's sinful to vote for the "fake" Catholics because they are pro-choice. Can't see how a Catholic can win statewide in Virginia.

Michael D. Shear: On Kaine and Byrne, I do know that the Kilgore campaign is already talking about the Kaine-Byrne ticket, hoping to tie Kaine to some of Byrne's more liberal positions. Having said that, the Kaine campaign says they welcome Byrne as a Northern Virgnian who backed Gov. Warner's efforts to fix the state's finances. As for the Catholic comment, I'm not sure how religion is going to play out during the campaign. Kaine does not run from being a Catholic and in fact has been running ads throughout rural Virginia talking about his life as a Christian missionary.

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Fairfax, Va.: I'm hearing a lot of talk about taxes, especially from today's Post article. It seems to me though that this issue is really a smokescreen. After all, shouldn't the debate focus on how public funds are to be spent or how much is needed to support budgetary initiatives instead of simply on how or how much money is raised? Why worry about the amount of bricks on hand before you agree what kind of house you plan to build?

Michael D. Shear: Virginia's political conversation has been sort of stuck on the issue of taxes for more than a decade.Then-Gov. George Allen pushed for tax cuts in 1995. Jim Gilmore campaigned on cutting the car tax. That became the subject of legislatve stalemates. Then Warner pushed for a tax increase last year. And now the two gubernatorial candidates each have their own competing plan to offer homeowner tax relief. I don't see that discussion changing anytime soon.

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Alexandria, Va.: Mike, the blog all politicos is talking about is http://virginia2005.blogspot.com/

They projected every winner of the elections yesterday in advance. The rumor is some reporter is running it.

Is it you?

Michael D. Shear: It is definitely not me (though I would challenge anyone to look at the napkin where I scribbled out my projections last Friday at the deli. It would give that blog a run for it's money);I'll ask Bob Woodward whether it's him. He needs a new secret now.

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Richmond, Va.: What does this all mean for the House Caucus?

With Bill Bolling, Bob McDonnell and Kirk Cox being the founders of the Virginia Conservative Action PAC that took on these incumbents, does that mean that the fighting isn't over. What does this mean for Speaker Howell?

Michael D. Shear: Speaker Howell backed all of his incumbents, even though they had basically turned on him during the tax session in 2004. I believe he understood the power of incumbency.We will have to see how the general election turns out, but I believe the results suggest there will continue to be a rift within the House caucus between moderates and conservatives. And that will present Howell with the challenge that he's been dealing with since he took over: keeping the "cats" herded together.

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Annandale, Va.: Do you think that the fact that a lot more people voted in the Republican primary than the Democratic primary means anything? Or was it just a case that the Republicans had more contested elections?

Michael D. Shear: I'm not sure that means much. There were more Republican contests, and the canididates for the GOP spent far more money trying to grab voter attention. And anyway, so few people voted in the first place.

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Michael D. Shear: Looks like we're about out of time. Thanks for all the good questions. We'll be writing about the general election campaigns here a great deal in the next six months. So keep buying the paper, reading the web and signing onto our blog.

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