Latest on Automobiles
Warren Brown
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, July 20, 2005
11:00 AM
Warren Brown talks about all your automobile issues! He has been covering the automobile industry for The Washington Post since 1982. Brown, who joined the newspaper in 1976, has what many people think is a particularly cool job: He gets to test drive all manner of cars, from top-of-the-line Mercedes sedans and the newest sports cars to Volkswagen Beetles and SUVs. His auto reviews are lively, detailed accounts of a car's good and bad points, addressing everything from a car's highway performance to its "head-turning" factor and sound system.
Join Brown online Wednesdays at 11 a.m. ET to answer your questions on every aspect of the automotive industry -- from buying your dream car to the future of the internal combustion engine.
The transcript follows .
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Richmond, Va.: The world has too many automobile manufacturers. Japan, Germany, Korea are producing excellent cars. They have cheaper labor. They are not impacted by the high costs of our health benefit packages or our labor unions. Therefore they can sell better cars at cheaper prices. It is apparent that the 18 to 30 year-old market is buying these cars, particularly Japanese and Korean manufactured cars. This is the age group that will be buying the Chinese car 10 years from now ... they are going for better quality for a cheaper price ... these are also the groups who shop at Costco. Will General Motors or Ford be names of the past in 5 years ... 10 years? Is there anything that can sustain these massive producers of automobiles, these massive avenues of employment for millions of Americans? These American icons of excellence?
If you were an automobile dealer for 5 lines of General Motors cars at one location and also a dealer for Ford, Mercury, Lincoln at two locations ... would you consider that? If you haven't sold yet, then you should sell NOW.
Is this like the real estate bubble that is happening in many parts of the world. Or is this like the textile departure from the USA. Will the American car industry diminish considerably or will it become a remembrance of the past history of American manufacturing and industrialization?
Thanks for your in-depth comments, Carolyn.
Warren Brown: Good morning, Richmond.
The thing about anxiety is that it's greatly overrated. Take your thesis: The world has too many car companies.
Not true. Historically, there have been more, including many in the United States. Changing markets killed many, elevated others. We had the Big Three in the U.S. Now we have the Big Six: GM, Ford, the Chrysler Group of DaimlerChrysler, Toyota, Nissan, Honda. Oops, make that the Big Eight by adding Hyundai and Kia. I'm not ignoring the Germans. It's just that the Asians are eating their lunch.
This will continue, and not because of the 18-25 year olds, most of whom don't have two dimes to rub together in a new-car market where the average transaction price is $23,000. Their parents are the people doing the financing and most of the buying.
Bottom line: The companies that thrive and survive will be those that can respond to market changes quickly. you heard it here first, and many times: I'm putting my money on GM.
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D.C.: What is your assessment on the 2006 Dodge Charger. Have you done a review on it yet? Thanks.
Warren Brown: Review Coming to an On Wheels column in The Washington Post, soon. But if it's half as good as the splendiferous 300C Hemi, I want one.
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Austin, Tex.: Sales of road-hogging, gas-guzzling SUVs are down as a result of the dramatic increases in gas prices. Any indication that the auto makers are altering their vehicle mix (more small cars, fewer big SUVs), or can we simply expect GM and Ford to figure out how to put hybrid engines in their Suburbans and Expeditions?
Warren Brown: Baloney, Austin.
Sales of full size SUVs are down.
Sales of full size pickup trucks are running along just nicely.
There is some flatness in sales of mid-size SUVs. Some of that might be attributable to concerns about fuel prices. But the likelihood is that some models, such as the Ford Explorer (which remains the best-selling SUV) are in model transition.
Sales of crossover SUVs/minivans are increasing.
Sales of muscle cars, some of which consume more fuel than small SUVs, are soaring!!!!.
Get over your anti-SUV jones. The market is the market and it's the people--the consumers--who control the market. They will dictate the changes.
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Silver Spring, Md.: Good morning! We are looking to downsize a car from an SUV to a compact wagon. Our other car is a '96 Accord with 120K miles, which we plan to drive until it falls apart.
The new car will mainly be used for low-mileage commuting and pretty regular 6+ hour trips to visit family. I'm thinking a smallish wagon because we have a big dog that travels with us.
I recently drove the Volvo V50 T5 (FWD, not AWD). Have you driven it and, if so, what do you think? What are some alternatives in the same class? Is it true that new models (like the V50) generally have "kinks" that don't get worked out for a couple of years?
Warren Brown: The V50 is okay. But, frankly, I think you'd be better off looking at the Mazda5 minivan/wagon, which is an exceptionally well conceived urban family runner. Also, there is the Toyota Matrix/Pontiac Vibe; or, if you really want to save cash, look at the Kia Spectra. My good friend Ria Manglapus and I did a joint family commuting experiment with the Spectra for a week. We ran that little car all over the Washington area with kids and all of their stuff, and found it to be one heck of a reliable, high-value automobile.
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Alexandria, Va.: Warren, I own a 2003 Honda Civic Hybrid. Last week it, as well as most 2004 and 2005 Civic Hybrids, was recalled to fix a catalytic converter problem that caused the engine to run too lean. Anyway, the day I took mine in for service there must have been 50 Civic Hybrid owners snaking around the entrance to the dealership's service bays, waving their recall letters from Honda's North American headquarters in California.
I ask you, where were the t.v. cameras? Where was the media coverage? Isn't the first recall of hybrids ... a legitimate media story? What if, say, the Ford Escape Hybrid had been recalled instead? Somehow I think that would be a huge media story, don't you? What gives?
Warren Brown: I think you've answered your own question, Alexandria. It is exactly what I have been saying for years. Hybrids have been anointed as the Green Leaders by many people in the media, most of whom have paid little attention to competitive and/or other developing technologies. We have state legislatures giving tax and commuter-lane breaks to hybrids that don't get any better mileage than a Kia Spectra or my Toyota Echo; and we generally have a media that nods at all of this and thinks it's okay.
As has been noted in this space on many occasions, ALL--ALL--car companies make mistakes. That's probably because they ALL are run by fallible human beings.
What bugs me is the general media bias that says Detroit is inherently more fallible than anyone else. That's baloney!
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Falls Church, Va.: Warren, I recently rented a Chevy Cobalt for a few days, followed by a new V6 Ford Mustang convertible for a week. The inexpensive Cobalt exceeded expectations. It felt very solid, got great gas mileage, and generally made me think positive thoughts about General Motors as I drove around Michigan. The Mustang, however, while it looked very cool as my wife and I drove around Southern California, disappointed. I kept whacking my wife in the head undoing the sticky convertible top latches, just barely broke 20 mpg in over 1000 miles of driving, and I couldn't see the (also cool-looking) instrument panel in the daytime. Having another 100 horsepower in the V8 GT might make up for these shortcomings, but I could not see myself buying a Mustang. Any thoughts on these cars?
Warren Brown: Yes, Falls Church. I like them both--the Cobalt for being a well executed, high-value economy car; and the Mustang--V8 and V6.
But I agree that Ford needs to do a better job with that convertible top. It's more troublesome than it should be. I don't think buyers would balk too much at paying a higher price for Ford to fully automate that top. What do you think?
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Alexandria, Va.: What's your favorite car song? Little GTO?
Warren Brown: "Bye, bye, Miss American pie
drove my Chevy to the levy
But the levy was dry....."
My favorite car poem: "She being brand new..."
by E.E. Cummings
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Bethesda, Md.: Hi Warren! You mentioned the Mazda5. What is the difference between it and the MPV?
Warren Brown: Good question.
Mazda5 is less of a van, more of a wagon. Has seating for six with third row. I found it easier to get around the city in the Mazda5--that is, in terms of parking. The Mazda5 comes a bit under the MPV in size.....and price.
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Washington, D.C.: My husband and I are having a (purely hypothetical) argument, and perhaps you'd like to weigh in ... Ferrari Enzo or Carrera GT?
Warren Brown: Enzo.
The Italians understand that passion involves a hell of a lot more than performance....
And that is all I'm going to say about that.
Tell your husband.
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Anytown, USA: What do you make of these recalls for Mitsubishi on the 2006 Eclipse? Two recalls within one month of introduction. Shouldn't they HAVE waited on the intro until the bugs were worked out?
If this had been GM rather than a Japanese company, everyone would be killing GM for poor execution, and I would argue that Mitsubishi is in bigger trouble than GM.
While the Eclipse looks like a fun car, could these recalls and the possible failure of the Eclipse bring Mitsu to the brink?
Warren Brown: On one hand, it is better to get a recall over and done than it is to try to duck and run and pretend that everything is okay.
Mistakes are never pleasant. (Believe me. I know.) But not fixin' what needs fixin' when it needs fixin' makes people angry. So, it's good that Mitsubishi is stepping up.
On the other hand, you are absolutely right. This is the bad news that the troubled Mitsubishi did not need. The company was putting a lot on the Eclipse, and they muffed it twofold.
Muff 1: The marketing is awful. The Eclipse is a nice highway car; but it's nobody's Enzo. Enough already with the boy-racer approach to reality.
Muff 2: Not checking a must-check vehicle before asking consumers to write the check.
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Silver Spring, Md.: Warren, I recently read Subaru is working with Toyota on applying its hybrid technology to Subaru's line of vehicles. Is this true? If so, when can the public expect to see hybrid Subies? Thanks.
Warren Brown: Yes, on all counts. Toyota is licensing its hybrid technology.
But, as Paul Harvey would say, "Here's the rest of the story."
Everybody is working with everybody, sharing something with everybody. GM/DaimlerChrysler are working on a hybrid system they say will trump current models by allowing more real use of battery power than is currently permitted; Honda is giving GM some advanced V6 engines (for Saturn); GM, in turn, is carrying much of the financial load for hydrogen research, which Honda is interested in developing; students in China have found a way to use hydrogen peroxide as a vehicle fuel. Some people are laughing at those Chinese students. Other people with money are taking them seriously. Are you?
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Boston, Mass.: Media attention on hybrids? Frankly, Mr. Brown, saying that hybrids get the same mileage as a Kia or Echo is completely misleading. First, you are comparing apples to oranges! I guarantee you if Toyota dropped an HSD system in the Echo, it would get even higher mileage. So why compare the Echo to a non-comparable vehicle?
Secondly, you ignore the overall reduction in greenhouse gases, especially in inner cities rife with stop-and-go traffic that hybrids specifically address!
When you make arguments like these, claiming that the media doesn't understand the technology -- frankly, you come across as not understanding it.
Hybrids may or may not be the wave of the future, but to dismiss them outright as media hype just shows ignorance.
Warren Brown: Nuts!!
If I get 36 miles per gallon in my $11,000 Echo and you get 42 in your $21,000 HSD Prius (and that, based on real-world driving, is being generous), how can you possibly dismiss my concerns for value for dollar as a consumer? How can you tell me it's an apples and oranges comparison? So, you drop your HSD system into the Spectra, which already gets good mileage, already meets all California Air Resources Board standards? What happens to the Spectra's purchase price?
Here's the deal, Boston: The chances of hybrids, with their current pricing structure, becoming the wave of the automotive future are about as good as the prospects for the Boston Red Sox to win the World Series again this year. I say an overall 15/20-percent hybrid vehicle penetration in North America in the next five years. What do you say for your Sox?
P.S. Go, Nationals!
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RE: Compact wagons: Don't forget the attractive Mazda6 wagon and the less-expensive but very roomy Ford Focus wagon!
Warren Brown: Thank you.
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Reston, Va.: RE: Recalls ...
Just to add to the recall discussion. Another aspect is the media likes big numbers. How many Honda Civics have been manufactured or are under recall? It's not the same magnitude as say a Toyota Camry or Ford SUV. When Ford says that a "thingamajig" in all SUVs made since 1995 won't last 15 years as expected, and need to be replaced. It makes the news because Ford had a press release that says 1.5 million cars need a part sooner than later.
It's the same thing when somebody releases the "most popular stolen cars." Camrys and Accords are frequently on top of the list. Why? Because there's a lot of them out there. Bentleys are never going to be at the top of that list, even if they ALL get stolen.
And then there's the feeding frenzy/piling on theory that works in conjunction.
Warren Brown: Thank you, Reston.
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Washington, D.C.: Have you driven the Subaru Tribeca? What are your thoughts? It looks like an expensive station wagon to me, but my husband seems to like it.
Warren Brown: Essentially, The B9 Tribeca is an expensive station wagon in the manner of the Chrysler Pacifica, Mercedes-Benz R-Class, Nissan Murano, and Lexus RX330--all high-end "crossover" minivan/wagon/SUV thingies. But, I like the B9 Tribeca, primarily the front cabin. Downside: I'm 5'7". Taller people who sat behind the wheel, even after making adjustments, complained about lack of space.
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Reston, Va.: Warren,
Thanks for the chats, articles, and sound opinions.
It just so happened that I got an ad in my mailbox for the Mercedes R-Class this past weekend. It timed nicely with your review, and while the vehicle is way out of my price range, I was wondering if it shared much in common (parts wise) with the Chrysler Pacifica. From the 7 pictures that I've seen they seem to have some similarities.
washingtonpost.com:
Warren Brown: Hello, Reston.
There is some sharing with the Pacifica; but M-B execs insist that it's not much. I'm running out of time here for details. But, for example, Pacifica essentially is front-wheel-drive. The R-Class is all-wheel-drive all the way for both the R350 and R500. Beautiful drivers, by the way.
P.S. MISTAKE: RECALL: I erred in the Sunday column inadvertently writng "24" twice. There are 24 valves in the V6. Their are 32--four valves times eight cylinders--in the V8. So terribly sorry. This correction will be repeated in Sunday's column. Mea culpa. mea culpa. Mea maxima culpa.
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McLean, Va.: I might be moving far away to Loudon or West Virginia to get a nicer home. I will want to get rid of my Jeep Wrangler because of the commute. I want to get the cute little European Smart Car convertible but there seems to be trouble with it coming here. Do you know if this car will be made available in the USA? I could probably get one if I really tried but then I would worry about getting it serviced.
Warren Brown: Unfortunately, McLean, Mercedes-Benz is beginning to treat a Smart U.S. intro as a dumb idea. The company has cooled off on intro plans quite a bit--first, by knocking out the ForFour small SUV, and now by casting doubt over whether it will bring any Smart here. We'll see.
But......
Think....
Oil production is peaking.
Oil demand is rising globally.
Oil prices are rising.
Does it make sense to INCREASE your commuting distance, given that scenario, even with a Smart car? What about the cost of shipping goods to your new place? Everything that moves requires energy. That brings a new dynamic to real estate. It's no longer just location, location, location. Today, you've got to figure in location....and ENERGY.
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Warren Brown: Okay, folks. We'll pick up speed next week.
Saturday radio broadcast note: We've been doing Weekend Wheels on 630WMAL for going on two years, now. Every Saturday at 1 p.m., 630WMAL. We're presenting a best-of show show this weekend, inasmuch as some of you have asked for a compendium. Why do you ant this? I don't know. Perhaps, you just won't to laugh. If so, enjoy.
Real Wheels will be here next Wednesday, as usual.
Take care. Drive carefully. God bless.
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