Virginia Politics

Washington Post staff writer Michael Shear was online Thursday, July 14, at 11 a.m. ET to preview this weekend's debate between Former attorney general Jerry W. Kilgore (R) and Lt. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D), the two major party candidates for governor of Virginia.

From The Post:

Va. Hopefuls Prep With Sparring Partners (Post, July 14)

The transcript follows.

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Michael Shear: Good morning, everyone.

It's the middle of July, when we should all be thinking more about our upcoming vacations than an election in November, but what the heck. The debate this Saturday between Jerry Kilgore and Tim Kaine kinda kicks off the political season, so let's hear what people have to say about it. And if you have other questions about politics in Virginia, toss 'em on out and I'll do my best.

Oh, and one plug for Race to Richmond, our political blog about the elections here in Virginia. It's available via the Web site, and we try to update it daily. It's good for those junkies who just have to know about the latest exchange of press releases.

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washingtonpost.com: Race to Richmond: Notes From the Virginia Governor's Race

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Fairfax, Va.: Saturday morning, middle of summer -- will anybody but political junkies pay any attention to this debate?

Michael Shear: A perfect question to start.

I suspect the answer, frankly, is not really. And yet, these handful of big debates between the candidates do matter. The candidates use them to refine the messages they've been testing for the past six months in speeches and radio ads. They use them to influence reporters, both for the immediate story and for the rest of the campaign. And they use them to push their opponents buttons.

One truism in state and national debates: people remember them mostly when someone makes a mistake. In my story today, I quote one GOP operative as saying it's like a NASCAR race -- people go there for the wrecks.

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Bristow, Va.: Perhaps I am missing something, but why is the debate between the two candidates running for Governor of Virginia taking place at the Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia? Certainly, we have facilities in the Commonwealth of equal elegance as the Greenbrier.

Michael Shear: The debate is sponsored by the Virginia Bar Association, which holds its annual meetings at the Greenbrier, which is, indeed, in West Virginia, in even-numbered years. In odd-numbered years, they hold the meeting at the Homestead, a resort in Virginia. Go figure.

Candidates have sometimes made fun of the fact that the first debate is in West Virginia. (The Kaine folks have done so this year). But the fact is that it's not very far over the state line, and the reporters who cover it are from Virginia.

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Brandermill, Va.: Who is moderating the debate? Any track record on that person? Can we expect that questions will more policy oriented, rather than queries about accentgate, Pottsgate, etc.?

Michael Shear: The moderator of the debate is Bob Holsworth, a professor of politics at Virginia Commonwealth University, and the director of a public policy center there. He's a well-known pundit in Virginia with a vast reservoir of knowledge about the political scene.

The debate will feature questions from a panel of three reporters (newspaper and tv) and then an opportunity for Kilgore and Kaine to ask each other a couple. Then, Holsworth will ask questions submitted in writing by members of the audience, who are the lawyers at the group's annual meeting.

I suspect the questions will be a mix-- transportation, education, taxes, higher education, gun control, abortion, capital punishment. I would also be willing to bet there's a few zingers in there. Kaine might be asked about the Million Mom March and his support for it while mayor. Kilgore might be asked about his role in the state's eavesdropping scandal.

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Richmond, Va.: Who's going to win?

Michael Shear: A good, straight, to-the-point question.

Now let me give a good, straight, to-the-point answer.

I haven't a clue.

(I assume, by the way, that you're talking about who wil win the debate. Though if the question was about who will win the election, my answer is the same.)

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Arlington, Va.: I have not been able to find anything about where this will be televised. Why isn't it going to be?

Michael Shear: You can stop looking. It won't be televised.

Why not? Probably a mix of reasons. The campaigns negotiate all of the details about these debates, down to whether bloggers can use snippits of the exchanges on their sites.

Kaine has accused Kilgore of trying to dodge debates, saying he should be willing to debate more often and on statewide television. Kilgore says he will do two, and probably three. Currently, the only debate that is likely to be televised statewide is one that is still under negotiation to be held in Richmond. That debate would be moderated by University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato.

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Chantilly, Va.: Good morning Michael: What's the latest word on Russ Potts's effect on the race, and will he get into any three-way debates?

He's really making Kilgore look like a coward.

Michael Shear: Ah, Russ Potts. The $64,000 question.

Will he affect the race? I think the campaign managers for Kilgore and Kaine are both losing some sleep over that question. (Right Ken and Mike?) Conventional wisdom now is that Potts probably takes more votes from Kaine because both are seeking to attract centrist voters. But Potts is, after all, a Republican and could attract votes from Kilgore, too.

Pott's campaign manager has said he needs $5 million and entry into the debates to win. So far, he's raised about $450,000 and he's in none of the big debates, thanks to Kilgore's refusal to participate if Potts is included.

It remains to be seen whether Potts can turn it around in the next few months.

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Atlanta, Ga.: What is the prevailing wisdom as to what Mark Warner will do after leaving the state house? In particular, do you expect him to challenge George Allen? I have my doubts that he could defeat Allen and this would likely harm his apparent longterm goal of running for president. Thoughts?

Michael Shear: Ok. Another topic for a moment -- Mark Warner.

I just got back from Arizona, where Warner gave a new, nationally-oriented speech to the Democratic party there. He still hasn't said what he's going to do, but it's pretty clear that he's more interest in the presidency than the Virginia Senate. After all, I'm not sure the typical Arizona voter will have much influence in who is elected to the Senate from Virginia next year.

But don't forget, Allen has designs on the White House, too. Best bet is that he runs for reelection in 2006 even as he campaigns across the country for president.

Think of it as a dream for a Virginia political reporter: two Virginia candidates both running for president.

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washingtonpost.com: Outside of Va., Warner's National Ambitions Shine (Post, July 11)

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Arlington, Va.: I haven't seen any polls on the race. Are there any numbers out there?

Michael Shear: Back to the race at hand.

There have been a few public polls, though none of them by the larger, more traditional polling firms. They have all showed Kilgore leading, with margins ranging from 4 to 10 points. A Mason-Dixon poll is expected soon.

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Vienna, Va.: While Potts has no chance of winning, it seems he's the only one of the three to admit that there are tough choices to make. Gilgore and Kaine appear to want to give "No Car Tax" type solutions without thinking of the long term ramifications (case-in-point, freezing the property tax increases - California and PG County are prime examples of how that can backfire). Is there any chance of Kaine or Gilgore adopting Potts' strategy of treating the voters like adults?

Michael Shear: Right there, in the question, is the challenge for Potts -- a voter who clearly thinks a lot of him, but who believes he's got "no chance of winning." That says more about the uphill battle that an independent candidate faces than anything I or the pundits could provide.

As to Kilgore or Kaine adopting his positions, I think it's unlikely. Kilgore and Kaine each have very well-planned campaign strategies and I rather doubt they will be cribbing from Potts.

One think to muse about, though, is the possibility that Potts could throw his support to Kaine at the last minute. It's not clear whether that would have any real impact, but it's definitely something both camps are thinking about.

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Arlington, Va.: When are other debates scheduled for? And speaking of the moderator, how important do you think a moderator is in a debate? Do you think the candidates speak for themselves, or do you think the moderator shapes the direction of the debate? Thanks for your thoughts.

Michael Shear: So far, there is one other debate scheduled. It will be at the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce and the moderator will be Tim Russert, the host of Meet the Press. (He's done this before). As I said in a previous answer, the other debate is still under negotiation.

Moderators can be either transparent or not. Russert has generally been aggressive but largely a non-factor. On the other hand, a debate in 2001 was moderated by former governor and current Richmond Mayor Doug Wilder. And believe me, he was anything but a non-factor.

Sabato can be entertaining and engaging. Holsworth tends to be more wonkish. The best moderators help the audience by keeping the candidates focused on answering the questions and tries to stop them from simply making speeches.

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Alexandria, Va.: Hey - Mike -- love your blog as "Not Larry Sabato." Nice job with it!

Michael Shear: For the record: It's not me!

(An anonymous blogger out there calls himself Not Larry Sabato, and it's one of the better guessing games in Richmond right now.)

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Brooklyn, N.Y.: Good morning Michael. If you will indulge in a "big picture" question from out-of-state ...

What does this governor's race mean for Virginians? How will the state be different under Kilgore as opposed to Kaine? Any big changes?

Michael Shear: Good morning, Brooklyn. And thanks. I love big-picture questions.

Both candidates say the choice this year is sharper than most. Kaine offers, in essence, a second Warner term focused on financial stability and more money for education. Kilgore promotes himself as a law-and-order, low-taxes guy in the mold of Ronald Reagan.

In fact, though, the differences in policy are somewhat blurred. Both say they won't raise the gas tax. Both propose homeowner tax relief, although through different means. Both say they want to fully fund education, though they each have different specifics. Both express support for abortion restrictions and opposition to excessive gun control laws.

As in many elections, the most stark differences may be the intangibles -- values, style, leadership. It's those things that voters will have to weigh as they try and figure out which one they want.

and and

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Glen Allen, Va.: Any chance of the media dropping the term "debate" in favor of a more accurate term such as "joint appearance?" Any chance of some opinion writer posing the heretical concept that we're electing a chief executive who may or may not be a skilled debater? (Does my Kilgore bias show through?)

Michael Shear: These are definitely not classic, Lincoln-Douglas debates. That's for sure.

But I'm not so sure that there's not a bit of debating that will take place. We'll see on Saturday. But at least in this format, there's some chance for direct exchange.

One Democrat I quoted in my story today, Alan Albert, told me that the debate can be a window into the personality, style and character of the candidates. He then proceeded to say how the candidates each want to do everything they can to prepare for the debates. I asked him whether that meant they wanted to shut that window. His answer:

"It's not that you want to shut the window," Albert said. "You just don't want any frogs or bats to fly out of it."

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Buchanan, Va.: I've got a question. Russ Potts recently came out with a stance on Gay Adoptions. How will this effect Kaine since Potts is likely to take the gay vote away from him?

Michael Shear: Potts said he supported the opportunity for gay couples to adopt in Virginia. That's different than Kaine, who's said that allowing couples who are not married -- including gays -- to adopt is too likely to lead to problems for children if they split up.

I'm not sure how that affects Kaine. Potts could grab a larger share of the gay vote. But on the other hand, he could lose a larger share of voters who don't agree with that position.

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Arlington, Va.: Do you think the debates will be particularly ugly? It seems that the campaigns became negative from the start. It seems Kilgore has been especially negative. We've seen this on a Federal level and now on the state level. Will there ever be any effort to clean up political races?

Michael Shear: I hope not.

The campaign have been especially aggressive, though whether or not they have been "negative" depends on what your definition of that it. Some people see any criticism as negative campaigning, while others defend it as legitimate, especially when it is about an opponent's record.

Two years ago, Kaine and Kilgore met in an early, pre-election season debate hosted by the Associated Press in Richmond. At that debate, Kaine needled Kilgore into losing his cool over a question about the eavesdropping scandal and Kilgore's response to it.

Kilgore aides say he is well aware of the problems that could ensue if he loses his cool again. They say it won't happen.

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Midland, Va.: Although the debates will not be televised, will they be broadcast over the radio ...?

Michael Shear: I don't know the answer to this question. But I will find out and post it on our Race to Richmond blog later today.

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Washington, D.C.: What is Potts doing this weekend since he's not debating?

Michael Shear: As I understand, he's spending Saturday giving speeches to various groups. He's also made it clear to reporters that he's happy to talk to them after the debate, and answer any question that the other candidates were asked.

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Vienna, Va.: How will those of us who won't be at the Greenbriar get to see, hear or read the debate transcript?

Michael Shear: I'll try to find the answer to this as well. I'm not sure if a transcript is being prepared.

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Brooklyn, N.Y.: I've always found VA's one-term limit on governorships fascinating. How did it come about, are voters happy with it, and does it work?

Michael Shear: Wow. Either we're really popular in Brooklyn today, or we've got a very committed reader.

I believe the one-term limit came about years ago, in a change from a two-year term with the opportunity to be reelected.

Does it work? Many people, including most ex-governors of both parties, have said it does not. They say it limits voter choices and makes it impossible for governors to finish what they start. But lawmakers, who do not have term limits, have refused to change it, in part because they see a two-term governor as more powerful and a threat to their own authority.

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Middletown, Va.: Since this event is not televised, our only window to the event will be journalists and the campaign spin-doctors. I certainly hope journalists will report this debate fairly and not just resort to the tired old "better than expected" or "worse than expected" formulations.

Michael Shear: I hope so too. The miracle of the Internet society that we all live in is that readers now have lots of opportunity to let us know when you think we're not doing that. Visit the blogs. Send emails. Post responses to stories. It's important that we hear from you.

It's been fun. I'll be writing next from the Greenbrier on Saturday. The story will be in the paper on Sunday. Let me know what you think.

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