IRA Leaders Order End to Armed Campaign

Paul Arthur , a professor at the University of Ulster School of History and International Affairs, was online Friday, July 29, at Noon ET to discuss the IRA's announcement that it is abandoning its armed campaign.

The transcript follows.

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Falls Church, Va.: Prof. Arthur:

To what extent can we expect formal responses to the IRA's renunciation of violence by the the various unionist paramilitaries (the UDA, the UVF, and the LVF)? It seems to me that these organizations have been so deeply involved with criminal activities and fighting among themselves that they have lost any tenuous legitimacy they may have once had. On a related note, can we expect the formation of splinter groups formed by unreconstructed militant Republicans?

Paul Arthur: The loyalist paramilitaries have not responded yet. When the first cease fires happened in 1994 loyalists did not respond to the IRA statement of 31 August until 13 October. Then all loyalist groups spoke as one under the umbrella of the Combined Loyalist Military Command. Now they are not so united and they don't have the same leadership discipline as the the IRA. They also feel disillusioned with politics because they have benefited so little - only one elected MLA. But they have nowhere else to go. I accept that criminality is a big factor in that constituency. On the other hand there is despair in many of their neighborhoods and if it looks like politics might work again for republicans they will be forced to follow. I should say, too that they have a few impressive and courageous political leaders. I worry less about a major split in the IRA. Those who broke away after 1994 have enjoyed virtually no support and have been militarily ineffective with the exception of the Omagh bomb in 1998. "The fish must have water in which to swim" (Mao) and they don't.

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Indianapolis, Ind.: Presuming that the IRA disarmament goes as planned what do you think both sides can do to encourage the more violent sects that have refused to do so in the past to disarm now?

Paul Arthur: Peer pressure could be a powerful instrument. Working class communities are war weary and have long memories of all their dead. They will not want to return to it. Nor do they support criminality. If pressure is off the security services in terms of the armed conflict they will have more time and resources to devote to domestic issues

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Olympia, Wash.: Are the Unionists armed, and if so to what extent and are they being required to dump arms?

Paul Arthur: Yes. Unionist paramilitaries have always perceived themselves as "counter-terrorists". Presumably if the IRA war is over so is the rationale for loyalist violence. But a big problem is that many of them are engaged in forms of gangsterism and are divided among themselves. At present in some areas there is a form of loyalist civil war. But they will come under enormous pressure to move away from these activities.

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Gallup, N.M.: 1. How strong is Ian Paisley politically? What happens to his group after the Lord takes him?

2. How significant was the fall of Trimble?

3. What if any significance did Trimble's fall have on this latest IRA announcement?

Paul Arthur: Very strong. He represents the largest political party in Northern Ireland and future progress will depend on him doing deals with Sinn Fein. I would not dismiss that possibility. It is unlikely that he will go to the Lords (although his wife might). A more interesting question is what happens when he retires/dies. It has not been recognised the extent to which the DUP has become more secular and has the capacity to call on votes beyond its religious base. So there could be an interesting struggle when he goes. I should also point out that there are many talented politicians within his ranks who are capable of making deals. The bottom line will be: are they interested in power? If they are they will have to do business with Sinn Fein

2. Trimble's fall symbolises the perilous state of the oldest party in NI (founded in 1905). The DUP reckons that about a third of their new members have deserted the UUP and those numbers may be rising. As well it symbolises disillusionment within the Protestant community that the peace process has not released a dividend for them. Trimble did the heavy lifting by challenging the IRA. Paradoxically the DUP may enjoy the advantages of yesterday's IRA statement.

3. Little. Republicans felt for a long time that Trimble was finished and they have been preparing for working with Paisley. Yesterday's announcement was influenced by (a) the incremental movement of republicans from the armed struggle to embracing politics; (b) the desire to unhook itself of any charge of being part of the international network on terrorism since 9/11 and more recent events in Britain; (c) by growing charges that they were indulging in criminality particularly since the Northern Bank raid (Dec.) and the murder of Robert McCartney (Jan.); (d) growing peer pressure from their own community, the British and Irish governments and the international community (especially the US); and (e)a realisation of how closely they came to attaining power last December. They feared that their political project might disappear.

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Melbourne, Fla.: How are we to monitor the IRA to be sure they are keeping with their agreement?

Paul Arthur: That will be done by the Independent International Decommissioning Commission (IIDC) headed by the former Canadian General de Chastelain and assisted by Andrew Sen. They will have two independent local witnesses, a clergy person from both the Catholic and Protestant communities. Their job will be to witness the decommissioning of the IRA armoury. Separately an Independent Monitoring Commission will be scrutinising republican and loyalist activities

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College Park, Md.: While the IRA may have declared the end to "armed struggle," their goal of a united Ireland remains, leaving the same gulf between the Republican and Unionist goals. What is next for Sinn Fein and the IRA? Can they ever hope to win any significant Protestant support to achieve the dream of the United Irishmen of the 1790's?

Paul Arthur: That remains their desired goal. The constitutional nationalist party, the SDLP,have been arguing for years that the armed struggle was counterproductive and was liable to drive Protestants further away from the idea of Irish unity. Sinn Fein have a monumental challenge in front of them.

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New York, N.Y.: I haven't read much about the conflict in NI since I was in school in the 80's. Can you explain what the conflict is about at its core? I just wonder why they are still fighting and if anything has changed in that time.

Paul Arthur: That would take too long. The simple answer is a clash of identities - Ulster British versus Irsh Catholics. Both sides have suffered from a sense of victimhood and their own perverse memories of history. Attitudes are softening and there has been a dramatic fall in political violence .In 2004 it claimed only four lives, none of them, incidentally, at the hands of the IRA.

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St. Louis, Mo.: My opinion has been that the Unionist parties were quite happy with the status quo - rule from London. The responses of the Unionist politicians to the IRA statement that I have read in U.S. papers have been negative, e.g. "We've heard talk before. We'll have to wait and see what they do. ttc., etc." Assuming that the IRA does proceed quickly with disarmament and it is confirmed by the Disarmament Commission, how long will it take for the local government to get up and running.

Paul Arthur: Historically they were satisfied with rule from London but once that rule looked like interference they don't have the same trust of London. Yesterday's statements from unionist politicians must be taken as predictable rhetoric .If the process moves in the right direction we could have local government by next Spring.

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Charlotte, N.C.: Has the IRA surrendered the men who murdered the man in a bar fight several months ago? If no, how can the IRA be trusted to honor this larger agreement.

Paul Arthur: They maintain that they have told their volunteers to cooperate with the authorities and if this has not happened it is because the security forces are dragging their feet. But there is no doubt that the McCartney murder remains a huge embarrassment to them.

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Anonymous: Do you think that Unionists will always find another reason not to recognize the nationalists until Britain stops sending troops to support their position?

Paul Arthur: Troop numbers have been dropping considerably and the assumption is that with the IRA statement they will drop further. Even today they have begun to dismantle some of their security outposts.

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Washington, D.C.: How much does the timing of this coincide with the recent Al-Qaeda links bombings?

Paul Arthur: Little. The process was too far down the line. But it is the case that the impact of 9/11 has had a huge impact on the peace faction inside Sinn Fein.

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Paul Arthur: I apologise for not getting round to answering all of the questions. I have other commitments.

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