Vote on Iraq Constitution Pending

Iraqi politicians' struggle to draft a viable constitution was evident Tuesday as parliament voted to extend the deadline to August 22. The difficulties of bringing together the dominant factions are proving to be a growing obstacle as divisions have been apparent not only between Shiites and Sunnis, but also within the Shiite and Kurdish blocs. What does the current impasse mean for the drafting of Iraq's new constitution? What are the main points of disagreement among these factions?

Dr. Nora Bensahel , senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, was online Tuesday, August 16, at noon ET to discuss the drafting of Iraq's constitution and the challenges facing the governing coalition.

The transcript follows.

____________________

Washington, D.C.: Is the new constitution based on a federalist system like ours? If so, will this work for such divided factions?

Dr. Nora Bensahel: Federalism has proven to be one of the thorniest questions in the development of the Iraqi constitution. In principle, the Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish representatives have all agreed that there should be a federalist system. The devil, however, is in the details. There are real questions about the extent of power sharing between the federal units and the central government, what the federal units should be, and more importantly, how much wealth (specifically, oil revenues) should be divided between the units and the center. If they various factions can reach an agreement, there's no reason why it shouldn't work -- but the real question is whether they will be able to reach such an agreement at all.

_______________________

Mons, Europe: U.S. ambassador Khalilzad has taken a prominent role in the process lately. Is there not a risk that highly visible U.S. involvement will make the constitution illegitimate in the eyes of the Iraqis?

Dr. Nora Bensahel: Yes, there is that risk. However, there are also risks in failing to adopt a constitution, and those risks may be even more significant, at least in the short-term. U.S. involvement may help bridge the gaps between the parties, particularly after the deadlock that emerged yesterday. Many Iraqis are not paying particularly close attention to the details of the drafting process, and may end up caring more about whether there is a constitution at all rather than the process through which is was drafted.

_______________________

Wheaton, Md.: Why is there such a strong desire for "Islam" to be mentioned in the constitution? More importantly, why is the U.S. going along with it? Our founding fathers knew how important it was for religion and politics to be separated. Why not spread our secret to success with the Iraqis and keep religion out of the government?

Dr. Nora Bensahel: Some of the Shia representatives (particularly from the group called SCIRI) are pushing very strongly for the constitution to mention the role of Islam in the new Iraqi republic. Part of this is due to their belief that law should be based on Islamic religious principles, but part of it is also a desire to ensure that the constitution enshrines protection for their religious beliefs. Saddam Hussein emphasized secular principles during most of his reign, and the Shia were persecuted for their religious beliefs. So this no doubt comes into play as well.

The United States has no control over the constitutional deliberations, or the final content of any document. U.S. officials have not had that kind of authority ever since the occupation period ended on June 28, 2004. Yet even if we did, it would not be in our interest to dictate the principles on which the new constitution should be based. Democracy will only have a chance in Iraq if the specific form it takes is acceptable to the Iraqi people. This is their political system, and they must both design it and maintain it over time.

_______________________

Columbus, Ohio: Does the constitution have anything to say about women, women's rights, and/or the role women (may) have in the new government?

Dr. Nora Bensahel: Since there is no draft at the moment, we do not know exactly what provisions might be made for women in the government and for their rights more broadly. It seems likely, though, that any agreed-to draft will have fewer protections for women's rights than the interim constitution. The United States ensured that the interim constitution explicitly provided for a certain number of women to be elected to the interim parliament, for example, and contained other broad provisions on women's rights. Women activists in Iraq have expressed a great deal of dismay that these provisions do not seem likely to be carried over into the draft of the permanent constitution.

_______________________

Detroit, Mich.: What is the rationale behind the belief that the forming of a constitution (one that is legitimated only by pressure from an outside country) is going to have a significant effect on the insurgency?

Dr. Nora Bensahel: Ultimately, insurgencies require political and not military solutions. History shows that insurgencies cannot be defeated solely through the use of force -- the underlying political reasons that cause insurgents to take up arms must be addressed. The draft constitution would be an important step in that direction. The causes and composition of the insurgency is a very complex subject, but we know that disaffected Sunnis are a key element of the insurgency. They fear that any new Iraqi government will not adequately represent their interests. So, if a constitution can be drafted that at least satisfies some of their concerns, some of them may decide to put down their arms.

More importantly, the continuing weakness of the Iraqi government, and its inability to provide basic law and order throughout the country, enables the insurgency. They can conduct attacks more easily, and local populations may be so intimidated that they do not provide intelligence on the insurgents to the coalition or the Iraqi government. A constitution is an important step -- though only one step along a path -- of strengthening the capacity and legitimacy of the government, which in turn will undermine the insurgency.

_______________________

Fairfax, Va.: Once a constitution has been adopted, what prevents the Iraqi government from ignoring it? Do they have a strong sense of democratic history to deal with this?

Dr. Nora Bensahel: As I mentioned, developing a constitution is only a first step. In principle, any Iraqi constitution would be enforced the same way that the U.S. constitution is enforced: through an effective judicial and legal system. Those institutions will undoubtedly take a long time to develop and evolve to the point where they can serve as effective enforcement mechanisms. In the meantime, the hope is that the new government will essentially respect the terms of the constitution, not only because of the basic principles that are at stake but presumably also because the Iraqi people will demand it of them. Whether it ends up working that way or not remains to be seen, of course.

_______________________

San Marcos, Calif.: Was the extension of the deadline for the constitution legal? Would it be legal to extend it again?

Thanks.

Dr. Nora Bensahel: That is a great question. Technically, there were no provisions to extend the deadline in the Transitional Administrative Law (or TAL, which is essentially the interim constitution). The TAL said that the drafters could request a six-month extension of the deadline by August 1, but that if they did not, the draft would have to be submitted by August 15. If not, the TAL called for the interim parliament to be dissolved and for elections to be held to a new interim parliament that would try again on a constitutional draft. It did not contain any provisions for extending the deadline.

The unanimous vote of the interim parliament to extend the deadline was really a triumph of practicality over legalisms. Dissolving the interim parliament and going back to square one would be a very drastic step, which would further increase the political chaos in the country. The vote yesterday technically amended the interim constitution to include a provision for this extension. There's nothing to prevent them from doing so again at the end of the newly-added seven day period, but representatives from the main Kurdish and Shia groups have both stated that if they cannot agree on a draft constitution within the next seven days, they will dissolve the interim parliament as envisaged in the interim constitution.

_______________________

Scottsdale, Ariz.: Since there is this much disagreement among leaders on crucial issues, if/when a draft constitution comes to a vote in October, what are chances that the Iraqi voters will approve it?

Thanks, Joyce.

Dr. Nora Bensahel: Obviously, much will depend on the specific provisions of the draft constitution. My sense is, though, that if the drafters can agree on a text (and that is a big if at the moment), the Iraqi electorate is likely to approve it. Any draft that emerges from this process will have to involve basic compromises that all sides can accept, and the leaders who drafted it will likely encourage their constituents to vote for it. The Iraqi electorate contains many moderates, from all three ethnic groups, and many people are sick and tired of the continuing chaos in the country and lack of progress towards improving the political and security situations. As long as the basic principles in the text are acceptable, it is likely to get passed, since the details can always be worked out through legislation or constitutional amendments. The unresolved question is whether the drafters share enough basic interests to come up with a draft in the first place.

_______________________

Munich, Germany: If I were part of the Kurdish community in Iraq, under the present circumstances, I too would want the option of succeeding from Iraq after 8 years.

With Shiite leaders pressing to grant special status to clerics and increased ties to Shiite Iran, I can understand that both the Sunnis and the Kurds are concerned about Shiite influence and intentions.

Now that both the Kurds and the Shiites are discussing autonomy, how does this influence the viability of an Iraqi nation?

Dr. Nora Bensahel: One of the main reasons why the constitutional deliberations broke down over the weekend is that some of the Shia leaders demanded a provision that would give the Shia-dominated provinces the same autonomies as the Kurdish provinces in the north. The Kurds have had a special autonomous status since the 1991 Gulf War, and insisted that they maintain that autonomy in a new Iraq. The nine predominantly Shia provinces in the south have never had that kind of autonomy, and the Sunni representatives were particularly worried that this Shia demand arose essentially at the last minute.

The Sunnis are understandably worried about what would happen to them in an Iraqi federation where both Kurdish and Shia federal units have great autonomy, perhaps even the right of secession, since the vast majority of Iraq's oil reserves lie in the Kurdish and Shia regions. This raises precisely the questions about federalism that I mentioned earlier. I think that the Sunnis will try to block any provision that allows the federal units to secede, but that there may be room to negotiate over the specifics of the federal relationship.

_______________________

Vienna, Va.: Quite simply, are the officials involved in creating this constitution the real leaders of the country? Will the average citizens, especially the insurgents, follow their lead or are they viewed as tools or puppets of the U.S.?

Dr. Nora Bensahel: All of the Shia and Kurdish members of the drafting committee were elected to the interim parliament during the January 30, 2005 elections, and so it is fair to say that they truly represent their constituents. The Sunnis are a different matter. Since they largely boycotted the January elections, they would have had virtually no representation on the drafting committee. However, both Kurdish and Shia representatives understood that the Sunnis had to be involved in the drafting process in order to ensure that their interests were represented and the terms would be acceptable to them, so they invited quite a number of Sunnis to join the committee. Since these Sunni representatives were not elected, it is not clear whether they truly do speak for and lead their communities.

_______________________

Pacifica, Calif.: How much, if at all, do you believe the upcoming 2006 elections in the U.S. has had in affecting the way U.S. officials have tried to influence the drafting of the constitution? It seems that the administration has pushed very hard on the drafters even though very important, fundamental issues remain to be resolved, which, by their nature, can take awhile to sort out.

Dr. Nora Bensahel: The United States has pushed very hard to provide timelines for political progress, but I think that is due to a desire to sort out the fundamental issues at stake rather than the midterm elections in 2006. Keep in mind that all of the deadlines in the Transitional Administrative Law -- the January 30 elections, the August 15 deadline for a draft, the October 15 referendum on the draft constitution, and the December 15 deadline for elections to a permanent assembly -- were all set by the United States during the occupation period. The Iraqis may have less of a sense of urgency about these specific deadlines as a result, but all are hoping that the political process can move forward. Yes, these key issues can take a while to sort out, but it is also true that deadlines sometimes encourage negotiations to make hard compromises that they might not without that time pressure.

_______________________

Dr. Nora Bensahel: I'd like to add one final word. The extension of the drafting process is not nearly as important as whether they can successfully produce a draft constitution by the end of that time period. If some draft is produced, it will enable the political system to move forward, and as I noted earlier, I believe that any draft would be likely to be approved in the October referendum. A failure to reach a draft would pose some very serious challenges for the future of democracy in Iraq. It would indicate that the differences between the groups are too wide to bridge. The dissolution of the parliament would lead the process to start all over, but there is no reason to expect that the results would be any different next time. The key political issue to watch is the nature of the federal relationship. If they can reach some compromise on that, they will have enough of a framework with which to move forward, even if other important issues still remain to be addressed.

Thanks very much for your questions!

_______________________

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.