Virginia Politics

National political analyst Dr. Larry J. Sabato, founder and director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, was online Wednesday, Sept. 14, at 3 p.m. ET to discuss the Virginia Governor's race.

The author of over 20 books and countless essays on politics, Sabato has also served on many national and state commissions. He is the recipient of more than two-dozen major scholarships, grants and academic awards. Sabato is a chaired professor of Politics at the University of Virginia and director of the U.Va. Center for Politics, founded in 1998. His latest projects include " Divided States of America: the Slash and Burn Politics of the 2004 Presidential Electionand " Sabato's Crystal Ball," a Web site dedicated to the analysis and prediction of the upcoming Governor, House, Senate and Presidential races.

From The Post:

Special Report: Virginia Elections

Race to Richmond: Note From the Virginia Governor's Race

The transcript follows.

____________________

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: Welcome to all, from lovely Charlottesville. I look forward to your questions, especially those from my Wahoos (former students)!

_______________________

Arlington, Va.: In the debate yesterday Tim Kaine did not answer whether he would sign a death penalty moratorium bill because the GA would not pass such a bill. Does Kilgore have the edge on issues of crime and punishment such as the death penalty?

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: The death penalty is one of Tim Kaine's greatest weaknesses. He has a confusing position on the subject, which moderator Tim Russert pointed out. He is opposed to the death penalty as a matter of faith, but he claims that he will fully enforce Virginia law and its preference for capital punishment. Everybody knows that a governor has considerable discretion from the pardoning power, especially on cases that have some ambiguity.

Will Tim Kaine be a Gov. George Ryan of Illinois or a Gov. Jerry Apodaca of New Mexico, and pardon a large number of death row inmates? Kaine insists that he will not. But in the end, one must simply take his word for it. The pardoning power is absolute. Naturally, Kilgore will try to exploit voters' doubts about this.

_______________________

Falls Church, Va.: How can Kilgore justify holding referendums on whether or not to increase taxes? Of course no one will increase taxes! Isn't the point of being elected to lead, not punt every difficult decision to the people?

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: Since politics began, politicians have found ways to "pass the buck." This is a popular way to do it. People will say they want to vote on anything and everything, even though often they will not spend the time and make the effort to study the candidates and issues. Personally, I happen to agree with you. But if I were running for governor, I might well be attracted to this particular cop out!

_______________________

Baltimore, Md.: Wahoowa and congratulations on your generous gift to the University. Which issue, if any, do you think will have the largest impact on mid-term elections: Iraq, price of oil, Katrina? Can Dems use disastrous handling of Katrina as a metaphor for the Republican's failure to meet the needs of the average (and below in terms of economics) American? Thanks.

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: Wahoowa back, and thank you for your kind words. We have 14 months before the midterm elections, and we all know how quickly conditions can change. My guess is that as disaster relief and recovery spending reach the vast majority of the victims, Katrina will fade somewhat as an issue.

In Iraq, it is always possible that conditions will improve on the ground, but the likelihood is that the carnage and violence will continue unabated, at least intermittently. If Iraq remains as unpopular as it is today, or becomes even more unpopular, I could see the election of 2006 becoming another 1966--the opportunity for Americans to send a message to the president and Congress about an unhappy foreign war.

Gas prices will remain an irritant and possibly more, all the way to Election Day 2006. The real question in my mind is whether we will have a significant economic slowdown before the election. That could really create the conditions for a solid Democratic victory. Still, notice how many "ifs" I have included in this response. It is simply too early to know for sure, though Democrats are starting to feel somewhat confident and Republicans are sensing that a real setback may lie ahead.

Finally, I would like to think that what everyone has seen in New Orleans with the underclass would encourage all of us to think about possible solutions--many of which do not involve government expenditure, but rather a reconstruction of families and a reduction in births our of wedlock. Hope springs eternal.

_______________________

Woodbridge: What will be the real impact of Russell Potts? It seems to me that he will pull RINO votes in Loudon and Arlington that would have gone to Kaine and possibly some real Repulbican votes in the northern valley that might have gone to Kilgore. On balance, I think he takes more from Kaine in NoVa than from Kilgore elsewhere.

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: You might be right, though others suggest that most of Potts' votes in the end will come from disgruntled Republicans. Frankly, if Potts stays as low as he now is in the Washington Post poll (4 to 5 percent) and in the private party polls (3 percent), then Potts really won't matter much unless the contest turns out to be a nailbiter.

Remember, though, that Potts has some clever television ads coming out soon, so let's see those first.

_______________________

Roanoke, Va.: Hi Larry. It's a nice day here in the Star City. This question may give away my political allegiance, but that is not my intention. I understand that the Rev. Pat Robertson has given generously to both Jerry Kilgore and Bob McDonnell (not sure about Bil Boiling). Therefore, I have to ask how closely do you think the Republican Party works with the Christian right and do these groups, and the Rev. Jerry Falwell and Roberston, still have the impact that it once did within Virginia?

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: Good question, and I am glad to hear that the Star City is still shining brightly! Truth be told, the political influence both Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell has been on the wane for years, in Virginia as well as nationally. It is fair to say that the media gives them far more attention that their real influence in the GOP warrants. They are both getting up in years, and they have been in so many controversies over the decades that even conservative Republican politicians understand that they can generate a backlash if the become too visible.

_______________________

Wahoo by way of McLean, VA: Hey Professor,

The statistics for Fairfax County indicated a majority voted Democratic. Do you see this happening again for this election? Also, how much will we beat Syracuse by? Wahoo-wa!

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: Wahoowa back at you! The first, easy part of your question" we will beat Syracuse handily, by at least 2 touchdowns!

As far as Fairfax County goes, there has been a clear shift to the Democratic Party in this giant locality of more than one million people--close to one-seventh of the state. Even if Kaine loses narrowly, I would expect him to carry Fairfax by at least a couple of percentage points. If he wins, he will carry it by even more.

_______________________

Roanoke, Va.: Could Tim Kaine and other Democrats NOW safely take on the President and national Republicans, at least glancingly, on the issues which have caused Bush's poll numbers to fall, at least in this short window of opportunity before the November, 2005, election? Gingrich nationalized the 1994 Congressional elections. Is Kaine being too timid if he fails to do the same here, at least in part, without abandoning his "Warner, Pt. II" overall approach?

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: I can see why the Kaine campaign does not want to take on Bush frontally. But you raise an excellent point. I have been around a long time, and just in the modern period, I have witnessed a series of election in Virginia and also New Jersey, where the electorates chose to send a message to Washington with their election of a governor in the off-year.

This was true in Virginia in 1969 (pro-Nixon for Holton), in 1973 (nearly electing a liberal, Henry Howell, as the anti-Nixon), in 1977 (a big GOP victory, anti-Carter) and 1993 and 1997 (a strong anti-Clinton message in both cases). Could it happen again? Sure. Bush is below 50 percent in Virginia, though not as low here as nationally. If Dems become energized about the Virginia gubernatorial election, they may choose to send another message to yet another White House.

_______________________

Charlottesville, Va.: You seem very interested in starting a commission dedicated to discussing the terms that a third party candidate would be able to participate in gubernatorial debates here in Virginia. What are your thoughts on who should be allowed to sit in on this commission and set the terms? How much should people who work on the separate parties (i.e. the Democratic and Republican parties) be allowed to determine the standards? Bi-partisanship has not let to any successful results thus far and it does not seem that they will willingly allow for alternative parties to participate in debates. Who then should determine the criteria and standards for these third-party candidates to be included in debates?

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: We need to make this happen, and with all due respect to my friends in the two major parties, I do not want them in the room when this committee or commission sits down to set the rules for future debates.

Frankly, I don't have all the details worked out yet, but the

Center for Politics

here at U.Va. will sponsor a gathering before the year is out, to accomplish this important task. We just can't let the system go on as it is, since currently the candidates are able to determine the debate reality.

I can guarantee you this: we will include television broadcasters, who are critical to any alternative plan working. They have to be willing to commit air time in advance, and to go forward even if a major party candidate declines to participate. We will all find out together whether that commitment will be made. I hope it will be.

_______________________

Blacksburg, Va.: Dr. Sabato, Thanks for participating in this chat. It seems odd to me that Lt. Gov. Kaine had to participate in two different debates yesterday. Why doesn't the commonwealth of Virginia establish a bi-partisan committee that establishes a code of conduct for all gubernatorial candidates? this could include a debate requirement for all candidates. After all, Kilgore can't be THAT afraid of little ol' Potts, right?

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: We strongly agree with you, and as I just described, we will try to do something about the current situation. We hope you will support us when the time comes.

_______________________

Roanoke, Va.: Are you at all surprised at the relative lack of attention paid in the State to remarks by the Reverend Jerry Falwell to The Ronaoke Times last November, and to Tucker Carlson on MSNBC and The Lynchburg News & Advance last month, to the effect that gays and lesbians have a basic right to jobs and housing which are not "special rights" as religious conservatives have traditionally alleged?

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: I certainly noted the comments and they are quite significant, as you suggest. Obviously, the subject of gay rights is one of those "hot button" social issues, about which people have intense views, pro and con. But it is good to see that a consensus is apparently emerging that discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation is simply wrong. Jerry Falwell should be congratulated for articulating this.

_______________________

Vienna, Va.: Go Dukes! OK, it's not Wahoowa, but Harrisonburg is a mere hour west of you. Since the Robb administration, Virginia has always elected a governor of the opposite party of the president. How much of this is coincidence? Also, who are the most endangered General Assembly incumbents?

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: James Madison, like Thomas Jefferson, was a great president, and they were good friends too, as our two universities ought to be!

I addressed this partly above, but you are correct to suggest that there is more than a little coincidence involved--at least in some elections (such as 1981, 1985 and especially 1989 when Wilder won in a near-tie). And in 2001, Mark Warner's victory had nothing to do with George W. Bush, one way or another. Political analysts are like sports statisticians; we love the numbers even if the don't make any sense!

As far as the House of Delegates races go, about a dozen incumbents on both sides have been mentioned as possibly being in danger. Most of them will win reelection, because Virginia has one of the lowest rates of incumbent legislative defeats in the country, and this has been true for decades. A small handful will lose in the end, and there have been years when only one or two lost.

_______________________

Anonymous: What type voting machines are used in Virginia? Does it vary by locality? Are electronic machines used and, if so, do the manufacturers allow the local and state election board to check the software and the code for any bugs?

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: Virginia has a wide variety of approved election machinery. You might want to go to the Virginia State Board of Elections in Richmond for a complete listing. Over the years, this board has done an excellent job of screening the machines before approval is granted. Remember though, it is up to each locality to determine which machines are used from the approved list, so your lobbying is best done at the local level.

_______________________

Stuart, Va.: Four year college educations are being priced out of reach for more and more "middle income" families. Virginia offers very few top notch students incentives to stay in state as states like Florida, Georgia.

Is any candidate for governor likely to try to improve Virginia's competitive edge to keep the best and brightest in state?

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: As an educator, I am very sympathetic to the point you make. Honestly, while all three candidates would probably claim they would do something along the lines of what you suggest, I have not detected that it is a particularly high priority on their very long "to do" list.

_______________________

Richmond, Va.: Do you think that the Kaine campaign's efforts in Southwest Virginia have/will be enough to at least keep Kaine from losing Democratic votes in the region?

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: It is already clear that Kaine will lose the Southwest by a substantial margin. His goal is precisely what you suggest: to keep "strong Democrats" on board. Mark Warner is critical to in Kaine's efforts to do so, and I would expect that Warner would travel extensively with Kaine in that region in the next couple of months.

_______________________

Richmond, Va.: Why wasn't the Fairfax debate shown on statewide TV? We couldn't even get a radio feed in Richmond. Is this 2005 or 1965?

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: I'm with you, and I honestly don't know. You should direct this inquiry to the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce. Let's give credit to News Channel 8 for carrying the debate, and I do know that some radio stations did carry it, including WINA in my home city of Charlottesville. In the Chamber's defense, I suspect they tried to get as much media coverage as possible. Debates rarely attract much of an audience, I'm sorry to report, and the news media are businesses after all.

_______________________

Manassas, Va.: Thanks, Dr. Sabato. Since several incumbent Republicans (Harry Parrish for one) fought off their anti-tax brethren in the primaries, do you think that this issue isn't the huge issue it's made out to be? One comment on Tim Kaine's pre-school proposal. The question shouldn't be how can we afford it, it should be how can we afford not to do it.

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: It is still a huge issue within the GOP, at least. Who can say what general public opinion will be about the tax issue in a few years. Right now, it seems to favor the tax increases secured by Governor Warner, with the support of 17 House of Delegates Republicans. But within the Republican Party, a substantial majority did not favor and does not favor tax increases, especially the ones likely to be most active in the party. The fact that most incumbents won their primaries is more a tribute to incumbency, than it is to the internal GOP view on taxes.

_______________________

Leesburg, Va.: Why would Jerry Kilgore be ahead in the race now, with all the popularity of Mark Warner? Virginia has had time to get to know Tim Kaine more since he has been running and since he has worked with Warner on the budget the last four years.

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: We are running short on time, so we need to keep our answers short--which is always tough for a professor! ;-)

Kilgore is ahead primarily because Virginia is a "Red State." It normally leans Rpeublican, though not tremendously so. But this race is far from being over, so stay tuned.

_______________________

Arlington, Va.: I run one of the major Democratic political blogs in Virginia. I was wondering, what do you think about the effectiveness -- or lack thereof -- of the blogs in this year's election? Specifically, do you think they're making a difference, and if so, in what way?

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: I've been a supporter of blogs, because it is another way to educate people about civics. With so many people turned off to politics, we have to use every tool at our disposal to reach the apathetic, the alienated and all the rest. At the same time, I don't support anonymity, because it can be cowardly. Nor do I support rumor-mongering and vicious personal attacks. The better bloggers, and I'm sure you are one, are guilty of none of these sins.

_______________________

Fairfax, Va.: How much of a difference would one of these debates make in the eventual outcome of the election? It's not like these debates were shown in prime time on every major and minor network. I guess Kilgore has to hope that not many people are even interested in reading about them either.

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: Your point is well taken. I've been involved with many a candidate debate for the past 30 years, and at the state level, I can't think of a single one that made a difference in the election results. Still, debates are good things and well worth having, so that people who want to be informed, cand be informed.

_______________________

Blacksburg, Va.: Larry,

Perhaps the most important question regarding Virginia's highest office - why can't the sitting Governor run for a consecutive second term?

It's lunacy that the most popular Governor in the the 30 years of my life as a Virginian can't run for a second term in 2005...

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: Virginia is the last state with the one-term limit. Its days are numbered, but given that we are talking about Virginia, that number may be high!

_______________________

Vienna, Va.: Go Eagles (AU)!

Actually, the debate was live fed here on WAPO.com. Unfortunately, it wasn't pre-announced. I'd love it if they could do a repeat run ...

But regardless, thank you Washingtonpost.com!

washingtonpost.com: To watch excerpts of the debate, click on today's article, scroll down the page and you'll see a video image to the right. Click on the video image or the link below to "More Videos" to watch the excerpts.

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: Kudos!

_______________________

Kenbridge, Va.: Good afternoon Dr. Sabato. My question to you is what parts of the state does Tim Kaine have to do well in to score a small victory for Gov.? Do you think either of his ticket mates have a chance of winning as well?

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: This could be a "ticket election," given the lack of attention devoted to lower-ballot races so far. But, it's early, especially for them. As far as the Kaine-Kilgore race, the most important region may well turn out to be Hampton Roads/Tidewater. There is no natural favorite there, and if one candidate can break through in Hampton Roads, that person will be the next governor.

_______________________

Blacksburg, Va.: Dr. Sabato, Indeed, Virginia is a red state. But don't all demographic trends within the state indicate that the Commonwealth is getting more "purple" by the day? The fastest growing region in the state is Northern Virginia -- one of the most consistently Blue regions ...

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: Sure, but this was also the argument we heard from John Kerry's folks, who insisted that Virginia was in play. Bush won very handily in 2004, so I would say that the "purple" has a strong reddish tinge! In 30 years, though, Virginia may fully be a Mid-Atlantic state, rather than a Southern state.

_______________________

Dr. Larry J. Sabato: As usual, your questions were terrific--better than my answers. I wish we had more time so that I could answer the rest, but we can do that next time.

Thanks much!

_______________________

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.