Dana Priest
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, September 29, 2005
12:30 PM
Washington Post intelligence reporter Dana Priest was online Thursday, Sept. 29, at 12:30 a.m. ET to discuss the latest developments in national security and intelligence.
Dana Priest covers intelligence and wrote "
The transcript follows.
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washingtonpost.com: This chat will begin at 12:45 today. Thank you for your patience.
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Dana Priest: Hi everyone. I'm here. Let's chat.
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Sacramento, Calif.: It is believed by me and others that the U.S. military is stretched very thin, though the top brass and administration deny this.
What trouble spots or potential conflicts might we 'lose' or have to 'look the other way' on because of a lack of forces to send. Have there been any such 'calls' to date?
Dana Priest: Darfur? Afghanistan? Louisiana?
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Arlington, Va.: Newsweek has an item this week saying that, at a town hall meeting at CIA last week, Agency employees gave Porter Goss's a very hard time.
My experience in government is that when feds get openly disrespectful to their boss -- the boss's days are numbered.
Do you think the administration is beginning to wonder if they have the right person in the CIA job?
Dana Priest: I think they have for some time. The "bubble meeting" by Goss was just the only semi-public example, in the sense it it became public. He's no longer doing the president's briefing. He's no longer at the principals meetings at the WH. He's just not a significant player. The real issue is: what about the CIA? What about the clandestine spying operations that only the CIA used to do? How much is not getting done or is getting done by others in their own way (minimum as of yet, but DOD is pushing into it). That's been nearly impossible to tell so far, but I'm still trying.
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Palisades Park, N.J.: Who do you think is a greater threat to America's security: North Korea or Iran?
Dana Priest: At the moment, North Korea, because it is less predictable and less visible, more unified and its huge military complex could cause major problems if so ordered. Also, its further ahead on WMD than Iran. Iran is struggling within itself, has been for 25 years, does not (yet) have a nuclear capability, has a very modernized segment of its population, has to worry about Iraq's growing instability. But there's also Hezbollah, which the state could choose to unleash, if pushed, and that would be an awesome force.
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Essington, Pa.: Love you, Dana. A couple quick questions stirred by the (overly melodramatic) "E-Ring" program: Any rules/regs on (intimate) relationships between CIA and Pentagon officers? And, how's our relationship with the Uzbeks today? I remember reading in one of Woodward's books about how vital their help is to our ops in Afghanistan/Iraq. On another note, what's Negroponte up to lately? Seems quiet from the media on him. Thanks.
Dana Priest: I've not seen E-Ring. Any rules would apply to chain of command (can't date, etc. within the chain). Adultery is a crime in the military, not so for CIA. Homosexuality is prosecutable in the military, not so for CIA (like I said, I haven't seen the program). The Uzbeks could stand us criticizing them for their gross violation of human rights, plus they are probably feeling pressure from Russia about the closeness of the US-Uzbek ties, so they found it convenient to cut most, if not all, ties. US has other options--Taijikistan, Kyrgyzstan, maybe Kazahkstan. On the other hand, Karimov believes he has a big IMU (Islamic radicals) issue--they did attempt to assassinate him--I'm not sure he can get help from the Russians on that. So whatever happens now, will change within another year, I predict. Negroponte is working away, wants to keep a low profile.
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Chico, Calif.: William Kristol said last night in an interview that the military for nearly two years had not fought the insurgency in Iraq in an anti-insurgency style campaign. Rather, Secretary Rumsfeld thought that a strategy of giving the insurgents a big bloody nose would make them go away. However, he said Gen. Casey and Gen. Petraeus were changing this strategy and are now fighting it according to different counter insurgency tactics. Do you see evidence of this? Is there evidence of any success in this change of strategy?
Dana Priest: Not a dramatic one, no.
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Yakima, Wash.: What is our interest in continuing to keep 37k American troops in South Korea? I would think that our ability to deter an aggressive North Korea is easily and much more cheaply maintained with a single Trident D4 submarine.
Dana Priest: I totally agree and Rumsfeld has wanted to downsize more there. I believe it will happen soon.
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Ithaca, N.Y.: The possibility occurs to me that the Rumsfeld contingent in the Pentagon might actually be pleased that Goss appears to be doing such a lousy job of leading the CIA. Might keeping Goss in the job benefit the Pentagon in the institutional struggle to be king of the hill? Which is really the right institution for the job of "spying"?
Dana Priest: You got that right. To generalize, on human spying, I do not think the military is very good at it at all. Too literal. Far too little understanding of the cultural context in which they operate. Great on the tech side. Not trained for the humint side. But, of course, that's not stopping anyone. The Defense Humint Service within DIA, notorious for its lack of success (see: Iraq), is growing by leaps and bounds.
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Falls Church, Va.: Are you aware of, or even suspect may exist, any developing anti-American intelligence, or military alliances, in the world community of nation-states about which Americans should be concerned?
Dana Priest: Do you mean other than China, North Korea, Iran, Russia, Cuba, a growing European resistance to American tactics in the world and its counterpart in parts of Latin America (think Venezuela, Bolivia, etc.)?
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Cleveland, Ohio: In your opinion how real is the probability that Iraq will end up becoming 3 (or more) separate states regardless of the vote on its Constitution? If this happens, will the violence against civilians subside, increase or stay the same?
Dana Priest: No time soon because the US won't permit it, and even if we pulled out, the ensuing civil war would take years to sort out. Maybe in the end---a decade from now--things would settle out. But I really am not sure about that, nor about the realistic prospect of such a split. I can more easily see the Kurds splitting off if we can assuage Turkey somehow.
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N. Korea & 37k troops: Ah, but the South Koreans want those troops as a tripwire. The logic goes that in order for NK to invade SK, it must first run over those Americans, leading to overwhelming American response. Ergo, the North won't do it. Their version of MAD.
Dana Priest: Yes, of course, but I don't think Rumsfeld really cares all that much about that anymore, or even sees it that way given NK's missile capabilities.
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Los Angeles, Calif.: How would you rate (percentage) the chances of Iraq sliding into full scale civil ware within the next year?
Dana Priest: I think that some sort of civil war has begun and if the downward trajectory isn't interrupted, then yes, a year from now, or much sooner, is a grim but good bet for a full-fledged one.
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Albany, N.Y.: What did you think of the premiere of "Commander in Chief"
Dana Priest: I am soooo out of it! Haven't seen E-Ring. Haven't seen Commander. But I have seen all the ads on the sides of the DC buses and keep telling myself I've got to watch. I did see the Constant Gardener last weekend and thought it was terrific. Hated the defeatist ending, but still... And for everyone who wants to know more about unethical pharmaceutical testing overseas, The Post did an award-winning series on it two years ago. Let's see if I can get the webmasters to post it for you:
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washingtonpost.com: The Post's series "The Body Hunters" (Part 1, with links to rest of series): As Drug Testing Spreads, Profits and Lives Hang in Balance , ( Washington Post, Dec. 17, 2000 )
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Columbia, S.C.: Though Rumsfeld has often been the subject of my ire in the last few years, I do have to grudgingly agree that a fundamental transformation of the military seems necessary. The use of military bases in impoverished states as a sort of employer of last resort, overreliance on heavy brigades (some folks are still fighting WW2), and the integration/streamlining of interservice command and control are all good and timely things. I just can't help thinking that he would have been capable of doing so much more than he is currently had he had a CiC that knew to use him as a technocrat rather than a cheerleader for a war policy gone bad.
Dana Priest: I agree with his transformation vision. Long over due.
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Va.: A CIA recruiter actually referred me to DIA and NSA. Kind of a hint there is problem at the CIA. What do you think?
Dana Priest: Ha! Maybe the CIA has a internal counterintelligence problem they don't know about.
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Gainesville, Fla.: Are HUMINT operations in the future going to be overseen/coordinated from the ODNI, or from the CIA? If from the CIA, would this not raise the stature of the DI, at a time when many consider the CIA overall to have been taken down a notch in prestige, pursuant to the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004?
Dana Priest: It's a little unclear and still evolving. The director of operations at the CIA is still the humint manager but the DNI has a new post for that as well. Tactically there little question that the CIA would have this role, but strategically, it will probably by the DNI's person or the DNI himself. I'm not sure how this raises the DI's profile except that everyone needs the DI for targeting.
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Bethesda, Md.: Today two squadrons of fighter jets were seen flying over Bethesda. The question is why, and where to? Is just routine or is it something to be concerned and/or worried about?
Dana Priest: Hold on. I'll check around....
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Grand Rapids, Mich.: Dana:
Currently, the posts of the chiefs of Customs and Border Protection, Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the Federal Emergency Management Agency -- all part of Homeland Security -- are vacant. Against the backdrop of Katrina and the war on terror, what does this tell us about our state of national security?
Dana Priest: The worker bees work well without political appointees? I'm only partly joking.
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Dana Priest: To "Reston,Va." on the contracting issue: It's a great idea. If you can help get us started, I'm reachable at priestd@washpost.com
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Toronto, Canada: Thanks again for taking our questions.
The Hartford Courant has published some recent articles on Ali Saleh Kahlah Al-Marri, the Grad student currently detained as an "illegal combatant" in a North Carolina naval brig. He is appealing the conditions he is kept under. And, according to the article DoD spokesmen have encouraged everyone to discount the complaints because complaining about inhumane treatment is part of the training al Qaeda operative get, in case of capture. DoD spokesmen seem to have repeated this advice about abuse complaints from all kinds of detainees.
Ockham's Razor. I think we have to consider that detainees are reporting abuse because they actually are being abused.
The Post's excellent coverage of the cases of the Germans Khaled el-Masri and Murat Kurnaz shows that even innocent detainees are complaining of abuse.
Are you aware of any evidence to back up this DoD claim, that al Qaeda preparation was foresightful enough to think to train operatives to make up stories of nonexistent abuse?
Dana Priest: I haven't, but I could even come up with that tactic. On the other hand, just saying that it's a tactic doesn't make the allegation true or untrue. We've seen the Pentagon's record on detainee abuse (Fishback's letter being the latest example or "fixing" a problem only when it's exposed to Congress and/or the media) and reporters need to keep up the questions and the skepticism (on both the claims and counterclaims).
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Newport, R.I.: What is going on with this growing Able Danger scandal? I just can't see how the Commission staff could call it 'historically not significant and decide to leave it out of their Report. And what do you make of all the "he said, she said" going on with Weldon saying he showed the infamous chart to Hadley two weeks after 9/11 but Hadley 'not recalling' just like the 9/11 staff, including Zelikow, said they didn't recall Lt. Col Shaffer mentioning Atta at their Oct. '03 meeting at Bagram? This seems serious. Would you agree?
Dana Priest: I would refer you to The Washington Post's new investigative blogger, William Arkin. He's been writing some very thought-provoking stuff on Able Danger under his "Early Warning" blog. You can find it on our homepage or under "columns and blogs." He's also posting loads of documents that have never been made public.
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Washington, D.C.: Your chat is going on at the same time as one with Daniel Ellsberg. Have you ever met him and how would you have felt if you got a set of documents as good as the Pentagon Papers?
Dana Priest: Daniel Ellsberg was very brave to have released the Pentagon Papers. It was an invaluable act that allowed us to understand the workings of the Pentagon like nothing else had to that point. I consider the person who passed me a copy of the Office of League Council's so-called Torture Memo (Aug 1, 2002) to be the Ellsberg's league. But anonymously so.
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Washington, D.C.: Hello, Dana. I have a question regarding the recent situation of CIA such as the sudden departure of ADDO Robert Richer. Some argues that Director Goss is likely to step down in the near future due to such a serious internal conflict between him and veteran CIA officials. Do you think this could be the case? I am personally a little skeptical about it, since Mr. Goss still seems to have enough support from President Bush and DNI Negroponte. Meanwhile, I have noticed that recently lots of ex-CIA officers have gotten senior positions in other organizations in the intelligence community. (e.g. Mr. Crumpton, State Department CT Ambassador, Mr. Mudd, Deputy head of NSB of FBI, Ms. Graham, DDIN for Collection, Mr. Shedd, Chief of Staff for DNI, and so on.) Some argue that these ex-CIA officers evacuated from sinking Titanic hand that this phenomenon indicates the decline of CIA's power. On the other hand, others interpret the situation conversely that CIA has succeeded to maintain its de facto control over the community through such ex-CIA officers human network, although CIA has lost official head status in the community. Which do you think would be the case?
Dana Priest: I go vote for the Titantic scenario. The people you noted were not tarnished because of their CIA credentials, they were rescued. And there are many more for all those you named. That said, I'm sure they will keep their former colleagues in the loop on these agencies.
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Reston, Va.: President Bush reportedly has a chart in his desk with the photos of the top two dozen Al Qaeda leaders. They say he crosses them off one-by-one as they get nailed.
Do you think CIA head Porter Goss has a similar list of the leading Agency officials who were in place when he took his job? If so, how many of the top 24 who were at Langley a year ago have been X'd out?
Dana Priest: Ha! At least 20, actually now it's probably up to 24.
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Fairfax, Va.: The Mission is a fine piece of work and a good read. I thought it was impressive both in its scope and in bringing the stories of individual soldiers in the field to life against the background of the political and policy debate at home. Why do you think we have come to rely so much on the military, and the Special Forces, not only in this global war on terror, but for so many other actions that our civilian government agencies appear to be unable to cope with... e.g. drug war, disaster relief, and foreign diplomacy and foreign aid.. etc..??
Dana Priest: Their size, organization, budget, competency on core mission, and lobbying power on Capitol Hill, versus all of the above for the other agencies of foreign affairs, namely State.
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Dana Priest: Before I leave...those fighter jets were part of a huge military exercise being conducted near the National Naval Medical Center. The Post will have a piece on it tomorrow. Have a great week. See you next week! Dana
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