Washington Post Baghdad Correspondent Jonathan Finer was online Friday, Oct. 14, at noon ET to discuss Iraq's vote Saturday on its draft constitution, the impact that Sunni opposition could have on the outcome and continuing insurgent violence.
The transcript follows.
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Jonathan Finer: I am writing from Najaf, a city of about a half-million in southern Iraq that is sometimes referred to as the spiritual capital of Shiite Islam. Unlike much of the country it is a reasonably safe place to live (and report) although many of the problems present elsewhere in Iraq exist here as well. I look forward to your questions.
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Silver Spring, Md.: Doesn't the current political situation in Iraq remind you of the United States' own history at its beginning? There is a constitution establishing a loose federation with a weak national government, just like our Articles of Confederation. Iraq's probably will not function much better. I think that Iraq should establish a bicameral form of government. In one house, there would be equal representation, as in our Senate. This would make the Sunnis a lot happier, I think. The other house would be by population, like our House of Representatives.
Jonathan Finer: There are certainly many parallels to the American experience in the late 18th century, not least of which is that both attempts at writing a charter have been marked by difficult and sometimes acrimonious debate over fundamental questions of society. A major difference is the role of an outside power, in this case the U.S., in writing the Iraqi constitution. The senate-style legislative body you suggest was strongly considered by the committee that wrote the constitution. Perhaps during the period in which lawmakers can revise the constitution, such a system could be implemented.
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Brunswick, Maine: There was a recent article in in KR's Washington Bureau that gave the impression that some of the Iraqi army brigades the U.S. is relying on to assume domestic security responsibilities are anticipating and preparing for a civil war between Sunnis and Shiites. What's your sense of this possibility?
Jonathan Finer: Many people here are anticipating the possibility of a civil war. Many others say one is already underway. There is concern among both U.S. and Iraqi officials that the vast majority of Iraqi military and police units are relatively homogeneous (many are almost entirely Shiite or Kurdish). The recruitment of more Sunni Arabs to the security forces is one of the main goals of the government, which believes they would be more successful at policing their own regions.
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Skandria, Va.: Article 35: The liberty and dignity of man are safeguarded.
Does the Arabic word for man equate to men and women or just men?
Jonathan Finer: My translator tells me that what is likely meant by this passage is "mankind," or "humanity" broadly construed. Many people have pointed out perceived shortcomings in how the document handles women's rights, but this is not one often cited.
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Manchester, U.K.: Greetings,
First of all I would like to say that, the Iraqi people voting is not just a challenge to Sunnis who want to continue their genocide. It is a challenge to one thousand years of deception and oppression. Iraqi people are facing the worst criminal humanity have ever made. Let's imagine that the Iraqi people gave up and became wahabi themselves, unfortunately some are doing that especially in the Sunni triangle, the question why media don't distinguish between the victim and the criminal, media should say clearly that the criminals are the Sunni Whabi who want to kill the Shia Muslims, Jews, and Christians in the name of jihad.
Jonathan Finer: It is true that the insurgency is made up almost entirely of Sunnis, some of whom are wahabis (a word referring to a fundamentalist branch of Islam common in Saudi Arabia) some of whom are former Baathists (the secular political party of Saddam Hussein) and some of whom are opposed to the presence of U.S. soldiers in Iraq for a host of reasons. It is certainly not the case that all Sunnis are sympathetic to the insurgency, and it is important to remember there have been widespread reports of Shiite and Kurdish militia members and others committing atrocities against Sunnis and others.
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Alexandria, Va.: The constitution text came out only a few days ago, so how can a person, in such a short period of time, make an intelligent decision how to vote? Aren't the people going to rely on their local religious leaders to strongly suggest how to vote?
Jonathan Finer: Most of the text was actually published by newspapers and other media several weeks ago, but as you indicate, several changes were made this week (see this great graphic on the post Web site for details: link), after millions of copies had already been printed. You are right that the distribution has been a major problem. It is very hard to find ordinary Iraqis, who work outside the political process, who have read it in part or in full. It can certainly be concluded that people will rely heavily on local leaders and prominent clerics to influence there vote.
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Arlington, Va.: How long have you been in Baghdad? Have you noticed any changes for the worse or for the better during your time there? Do you feel that Saturday's vote will have any impact on the level of violence in the country? Thanks.
Jonathan Finer: I first came to Baghdad with U.S. Marines during the invasion in 2003. I left soon after the government fell and did not come back for about two years. I returned in May of this year. The country certainly feels more dangerous to work in now than it did when I was here before. At one time, reporters could walk freely in the streets, eat in restaurants, and drive from city to city. These things are rarely done anymore, except in certain parts of the country, Kurdistan for example. As for whether the vote will impact the violence, the government certainly hopes so. After the legislative elections in January, the violence slowed for a couple of months, but soon picked right back up again.
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Washington, D.C.: Has there been a large split among the Sunnis? Between those who want to support the insurgency and those who seek to become involved in the political process? Is the bombing today of those who support the constitution indicative of a larger spilt?
Jonathan Finer: Certainly Sunnis are divided as to how to approach the referendum. Many Sunnis felt that their boycott of the elections in January left the more marginalized because they lacked the representation in parliament to have any real influence. Others Sunnis argue that participating in these votes in a way endorses a political process they reject. Some analysts have pointed to a dearth of Sunni leadership, which began during the Saddam Hussein-era when most potential rivals to the president were killed or exiled, as a reason Sunnis have not managed to unify behind a common agenda. The bombing today is just the latest example of violence committed by insurgents against those who play ball with the Iraqi and American government. It is neither rare nor new.
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Tyler, Tex.: Has there been any griping from the Kurds or Shia about the last-minute concessions made to the Sunni? Does a lack of such griping mean that nothing substantial was conceded?
Jonathan Finer: An interesting question. You are right, there has been very little complaining by Shiite and Kurdish leaders. I attended Friday prayers at a Shiite mosque today here in Najaf, and the imam told the worshippers that the concessions made to Sunnis were minor. They certainly were enough to get some Sunnis who had previously opposed the constitution to come on board, but I'll leave it to you to decide whether they amount to anything substantial.
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Winthrop, Mass.: I would think that defeat of the Iraqi Constitution would be a great thing for Iraq. If the Constitution is voted down, it would give the Sunnis a great demonstration of the value of taking part in a Democratic process. Of course the Constitution passing because the majority want it too is also a demonstration of Democracy, but it's a harder lesson to swallow. At the moment the Constitution creates what looks like an Islamic State with protections for women's rights and religious freedom made null and void by religious courts so defeat of the Constitution seems like the best outcome.
Jonathan Finer: I think you are right that if the constitution fails, Sunnis could be convinced that they can accomplish something through the political process, but does that mean it would be "a great thing for Iraq"? I wonder. No group, even the Shiites and Kurds, say they are fully satisfied with the current document, but remember that if it fails, the parliament will be dissolved, new elections held, and the writing process will begin all over again. The underlying conflicts and disagreements, however, probably will not change.
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British Columbia, Canada: I believe the referendum is a big joke and the U.S. media has been hesitant to expose it. How many of the voters do you think have read the constitution? I heard tonight on TV that the Government of Iraq will make (some?) copies available to the people soon. Perhaps in a day or two?. It appears that people will be voting on something they have not read. Presumably they will be voting like a ship (sheep) of fools. Three cheers for the American definition of Democracy!!!.
Jonathan Finer: Copies of the constitution were made available very late, and as has been widely reported, many people still have not gotten them. On top of that, as I mentioned earlier, changes were made to the document this week after the versions most people will see had already been printed.
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Arlington, Va.: How much and in what ways do you think the constitution will change after it is approved by the voters (assuming it does pass)? Thank you.
Jonathan Finer: I wish I knew the answer to this question. Much will depend on how the various parties and factions do in the next legislative elections, which will be held in December. That new parliament will have the opportunity to make revisions. Stay tuned.
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Richmond, Va.: The draft Iraqi constitution contains the following:
"No law can be passed that contradicts the undisputed rules of Islam".
Whose Islam? Sunni Islam, or Shi'ite Islam? The one is more liberal than the other. Since the Shi'ites constitute 60% of the Iraqi population, the Shi'ite standards will prevail in both the passage and the judicial interpretation of laws.
The Sunnis and the Shi'ites have been in disagreement for 1300 years. The Iraqi constitution, as written, basically says that in all legal matters at least, the Shi'ites are correct and the Sunnis are wrong. I don't see much good coming of this.
Jonathan Finer: This is a very good question and something that was haggled over at length during the drafting process. The Kurds, who are generally more secular than Arab Iraqis, insisted that the phrase "undisputed" be added because they thought it would limit the scope of the clause to only those facets of Islam on which all Muslims agree. But it is also important to keep in mind that the constitutionality of laws will be interpreted by a high court comprised of legal experts and also, in all likelihood, of religious clerics, so it will interesting to see how it decides such questions.
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Tucson, Ariz.: Since the beginning of the war in Iraq the Bush administration has used lies and false information to sell it to the American public. My question is: "Why should we believe the outcome of Saturday's election will be an honest vote and not one where the results are fixed by Bush and company?
Jonathan Finer: There will be international election monitors present, which is not a guarantee but should provide some measure of legitimacy to the results. I think the bigger issue in considering whether this is a free and fair election is the threat of violence against Sunnis who turnout to vote in their regions.
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Anonymous: Do you feel that the American public is essentially clueless as to the nature of the beast we call "Iraq"? Shouldn't the fact that Iraq was created in a Parisian drawing room by people ignorant of Iraqi history be emphasized in the media? Should the American people know that the U.S. received 25% of Iraq's oil after WWI as a spoil of war? Do you feel the "integrity" of keeping "Iraq" together to be important? Wouldn't it be better to press Turkey to allow for a Kurdish state, and to split the sheets between the Sunnis and Shiites? At the very least, a federation of three distinct states?
Jonathan Finer: These are all important questions, particularly the issue of territorial integrity, which could re-emerge. Some of Iraq's neighbors--at least one of which, Turkey, is a major U.S. ally--are strongly against independence for Kurdistan out of fear it will energize their own Kurdish populations to pursue a similar status. The federation of three distinct states you mention is a controversial possibility allowed for by the draft constitution.
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Manassas, Va.: If the constitution does not pass on Saturday, would it be completely rewritten for a new vote, or just altered? When would they Iraqis next have the chance to vote on it?
Jonathan Finer: If the constitution is voted down it would have to be completely rewritten by a newly elected parliament. They would of course be free to use the current draft as a basis. It would be voted on again in a year.
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Washington, D.C.: I don't understand why the Iraqi constitution does not explicitly recognize Israel. We have spent a lot of money in the Middle East to create peace, and it seems like a huge waste of taxpayer dollars to permit the Iraqis to organize a government that does not ally itself with the U.S. and Israel. We are not winning hearts, minds, or battles in Iraq, and our enemies in the world will be emboldened while our friends will lose respect for us.
Jonathan Finer: Issues related to Israel are highly controversial in every Arab country, not just Iraq. I think a U.S. diplomat would probably answer that it was not the role of the U.S. to influence the content of the draft constitution but to facilitate agreement among the factions. Certainly a clause recognizing Israel would seem unlikely to facilitate agreement. I'll leave you to draw conclusions about the documents strengths and shortcomings.
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Washington, D.C.: Mr. Finer, what seems to be the consensus among most of the people in Najaf about the clause on federalism that the Sunnis are so worried about? Do you think there is a relatively serious possibility of the Shi'ites attempting to split off?
Jonathan Finer: Shiites I spoke with here and in Karbala, another Shiite majority city about an hour's drive away, seem genuinely split on this question. The proposal for a Shiite-majority state came from Abdul Aziz Hakim, the leader of one of the largest Shiite political parties (called the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq). Other Shiites, including the prime minister, Ibrahim Jafari, have said it is a bad idea.
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Germantown, Md.: So many milestones have been reached and then passed in Iraq since the invasion or occupation. It seems that nothing major has changed. People have got less and less concerned about what is happening there. I have to ask again why this time it is important? Even compromise is reached, that could only be the compromise between politicians, not general population. So how much does it matter?
Jonathan Finer: You're question is something many people puzzle about. I think its probably going a step too far to say "nothing major has changed." Yes, the insurgency is as strong as ever (some say stronger), but in the past year-and-a-half Iraqis have assumed political control of their country, elected a government and now drafted a constitution, albeit an imperfect one by most accounts. I am terrible at predictions, so forecasting how much this next step matters is probably a bad idea. Incidentally, as for your point about people caring less and less, a colleague, Anthony Shadid, who recently returned from the U.S. where he gave a series of talks on his great new book "Night Draws Near," said he was surprised to find how painful and resonant the Iraq situation still was for people. Just passing that on.
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Princeton, N.J.: Isn't it true that the situation in Iraq will be decided by the "Facts on the Ground," not by pieces of paper or a bogus government? By "Facts on the Ground" I mean economic facts like electricity, jobs, schools, gasoline, etc. and geopolitical facts like the southern border of Kurdistan and Kirkuk and Mosul, and who rules Baghdad, and the rights of women and the composition of the police force in Basra, etc.
Jonathan Finer: This is an excellent point. I have heard many Iraqis say that "pieces of paper," like the constitution, and an elected government, mean little to them in the absence of material improvements in their quality of life. Two-plus years into this project, electricity and clean water are still scarce and the economy is still sputtering. And violence is still a consistent threat. Many people say that what they want most is to feel more comfortable.
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Richmond, Va.: Thanks for your reply to my question about which version of Islam would prevail in the passage and interpretation of laws.
The problem with the Kurdish qualifier of "undisputed" is the same one: who decides what is undisputed and what is not?
The Shi'ites, backed by the Kurds, will be in power in Iraq. Smith and Wesson beats four aces.
Jonathan Finer: You may be right.
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Columbia, Mo.: What is the situation with the American relationship with the Kurds? They want us to have bases there. Is there a zero sum game, where the more we support the Kurds, the more we destabilize the overall federal agreement? Or should we support the Kurds independently, in case the whole thing breaks down?
Jonathan Finer: The U.S. has a long-standing relationship with the Kurdish leaders that dates at least to the first Gulf War, after which the U.S. began enforcing Kurdistan's virtual sovereignty with a no-fly zone. I think it is less the federal government that would be bothered by U.S. coziness with the Kurds than and more likely that it irks Iraq's neighbors like Iran and Turkey, for reasons I went into earlier. As for whether we should throw in our lot with the Kurds in case the "whole thing breaks down," it is important to remember they are only a small minority of the population.
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Boston, Mass.: A few of the questions already posed - and your answers - have touched on the large number of Iraqis who will likely vote without having read the Constitution. But people in this country vote all the time without having thoroughly read whatever proposition or platform they're voting on. Often, the language is fairly incomprehensible anyway. So my question is: How accessible is the constitution? Do your translators feel it's something the average Iraqi could fully understand, if he or she were to read it?
Jonathan Finer: Much of the document is written in fairly plain language. I think the major issue with accessibility is that too few people have actually gotten their hands on it. You are right that Americans often vote on ballot initiatives without reading them in full, and on candidates they know little about. I don't think many people would consider that ideal, but it seems an unavoidable reality in a democracy. The problem is, on something this fundamental, it would seem far less than ideal for so few people to have seen it.
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Washington, D.C.: My understanding of the design of colonial states is different. Colonial states should be comprised of groups that are historical adversaries. This makes the colony politically unstable and makes its government heavily dependent upon external military support. Any effort for self-determination by people within is a local insurrection, and any effort by the government against the colonializing power results in displacement of the regime for crimes against minority elements. Is Saddam going on trial for killing thousands of Kurds who rebelled with CIA assistance or not?
Jonathan Finer: Thanks for your comment.
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Ottawa, Canada: How can anyone expect the people of Iraq to come up with a constitution that will create a new country in a few short months? Constitution making is a very delicate and ultimately dangerous process. In Canada, for example, our country nearly breaks up every time some ambitious politicians try to change our constitution.
Jonathan Finer: This is important to keep in mind, and is something many Iraqi politicians argued during the drafting (that they did not have enough time). Some said they felt pressured by the U.S. and their own government to stick to deadlines they considered unrealistic and arbitrary. All that being said, they did complete a document that has earned fairly wide support. It can be judged on its merits.
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Mumbai, India: President Bush has constantly stated that if the U.S. withdraws it will put Iraq in the hands of the terrorists. But it seems to me that without the U.S. troop presence much of the steam would go out of the indigenous insurgency and there would be a turning against foreign fighters. What do you think?
Jonathan Finer: Plenty of Iraqis make this case: that the U.S. presence fuels the insurgency by giving it legitimacy in the eyes of people who consider themselves occupied. The point should be balanced, however, by the caveat that most U.S. and Iraqi officials say the Iraqi military is not yet ready to secure the country.
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Los Angeles, Calif.: Greetings from California! Considering the cost of our occupation is exceeding five billion a month, and taking into account your statement that Turkey refuses to allow for Kurdish autonomy, shouldn't we be offering cash to the Turks for allowing a solution to the Kurd "question", even if it was for 100 billion? That's 20 months of occupation. Your opinion?
Jonathan Finer: I would say write your congressman (or the administration). I don't know the numbers, but we already give Turkey substantial foreign aid. And allowing the Kurds to become independent would seem to solve few of the myriad other problems outside that region.
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Ogden, Utah: I'm fascinated by the reference of the first questioner to the alleged parallels between Iraq and the U.S. in their founding periods, not to mention your own agreement to those alleged parallels.
You are aware, are you not, that Iraq's history is 2000 years of completely different politics, culture, religion and ethnic diversity than the British Crown Colonies that made up the U.S., are you not? Do you not think that those divergent histories, not some temporary confusion over how to set up a legislature, will play a much bigger part in the outcome?
Talk of trying to plug a bicameral legislature into Iraq tells me that someone has no knowledge, at all, of the history of the area.
Jonathan Finer: Your point is well-taken. The historical contexts of the two constitution-writing periods could not be more different (a point I made recently with a friend who suggested a story comparing the two experiences). You are also right that a bicameral legislature would seem unlikely to solve many problems.
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Potomac, Md.: Is there a willingness among Shiites (leaders and the common man) to share oil revenues with the Sunnis?
Jonathan Finer: This was a major issue in the debate during the drafting and one area in which Shiite leaders believe they made a significant concession. There is a clause in the constitution that says oil revenues will be redistributed "fairly in a manner compatible with the demographical distribution all over the country." The clause only applies to oil fields already under development however, which some negotiators felt was an attempt by representatives of the oil-rich Shiite and Kurdish regions to secure future gains for themselves.
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Washington, D.C.;: Is Iran the chief beneficiary of Bush's invasion/occupation?
Jonathan Finer: People making this cased usually do so by arguing that the U.S. invasion eliminated Iraq's primary strategic enemy (Saddam) and led to the establishment of a government dominated by people with close ties to Shiite-majority Iran (and many of whom lived there in exile during the Saddam years). But it is also true that Iran probably does not consider it ideal to have such a large U.S. military presence so close to its borders.
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Warminster, Pa.: We've destroyed our national treasury and sacrificed hundreds of young American lives for this Iraqi constitution; what the heck does it say?
Jonathan Finer: For your reference see this link:
Text of the Draft Iraqi Constitution
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Baltimore, Md.: Where are Iraq's neighbors in all of this? We have not really heard much in support of the vote or any constructive words or assistance from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey or other "friendly" Arabic states. Are we just not hearing about in the new, are its neighbors afraid of democracy spreading, or are they not sure what to do?
And what of America's international allies, the Europeans, the Japanese, the Russians, etc..?
Jonathan Finer: A good question and one I wish I could answer better, but I have not spent much time in these countries lately (too much going on in Iraq!). I am sure correspondents covering these places will do a chat sometime soon. Like many countries, some of these seem to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, but I am no expert.
Have to run. Thanks very much for so many good questions.
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