The Breeders' Cup

Liam Durbin
Horse Racing Handicapper, e-ponies.com
Thursday, October 27, 2005 3:30 PM

Care to share your bets for the Breeders' Cup? Or need some advice for your picks?

Horse racing handicapper Liam Durbin of e-ponies.com was online Thursday, Oct. 27, at 3:30 p.m. ET to preview the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbread Championships races.

The Breeders' Cup will be broadcast live on NBC on Saturday, Oct. 29, at 1 p.m. ET.

A transcript follows.

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Liam Durbin: Thanks to the folks at Washingtonpost.com for giving me this chance to chat about horseracing. I'm excited to be here. As many of you may know, my Web site is based on computer handicapping, but some of my comments today are derived the old fashioned way... with a racing form and stubby pencil. Let's get started!

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Bethesda, Md.: FOLKLORE ( JUV F ) has raced all her races in NY, but has spent the last 40 days in Kentucky training for Wayne Lucas at Churchill Downs. She never ran at CD. Why not train in NY? Why is Lukas doing this?

Liam Durbin: I have no idea. But he doesn't give me tips on how to run my Web site and I don't tell him how to train horses. We both do ok. :D

Seriously, just have to trust his judgment. The horse will show up I'm sure.

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Philadelphia, Pa.: All right, this may be a dumb question but luckily this is an anonymous forum ... I'll be going to the BC this weekend and am very excited. I don't go to the races to bet, usually just do a win bet or an exacta or two, but I thought I'd like to try the Pick 6 this time. How does that work? Do I go to the window and tell them I want a Pick 6, then rattle off all the numbers in each race, or do I have to fill out one of those mysterious Scantron-type cards I've seen around? And say I have two horses in each race, will that cost me $24 for the entire bet? Thanks (oh, and Borrego in the Classic).

Liam Durbin: Not a dumb question. Here you go. Just write down the horses you like in each race. When you go to the window to bet it, just remember to separate each leg of the bet with the word "with." Sounds like this: "$2 pick six, 1 and 2 with 4 with 5 and 9 with 7 with.... " Get the idea? The tellers will help you. Don't sweat it.

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Fairfax, Va.: In the Sprint, if LITF sets a blistering pace, who is the most likely suspect to come closing at the end and win? Taste of Paradise?

Liam Durbin: I would be wise to avoid speaking in absolutes, because someone will surely point out my errors, if I make them. However, I don't see LITF losing the Sprint. The field is just not that strong and he has run fast enough over six furlongs on his way to a victory going a mile, to win this event. He stood up to a huge challenge in the Riva Ridge and still prevailed. He's that good. Wildcat Heir should be running late.

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Highstown: Along the Sea ran 3rd twice to favorites Adieu and Folklore. Any reason why she might turn the tables here?

Liam Durbin: Nothing shows up on the form other than the fact that she found trouble in a couple of those starts. So if you are looking for a reason for her to improve on Saturday, that is a good one. Even if she steps up, can she beat Folk Lore? At 20:1, it is worth a shot.

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PG County: Can St. Liam overcome his poor post position draw?

Liam Durbin: He has much to overcome, in addition to post position. A couple of his prime competition are on a big upswing, while he has struggled a bit recently. He didn't need the additional difficulty of the post draw. It hurts his chances. But since his running style is to go to the front, he could clear the field early and recover. He's a great horse. Great name too!

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Woodside, N.Y.: HOw many lengths is Lost in the Fog going to lose by?

Liam Durbin: Send me your money so I can book your bet. Just kidding, book making is illegal! But my point is that if you can find a reason to bet against the Fog, I hope you are putting a lot of money down for the rest of us to share. He is the best bet of the day. Buy and extra win ticket on him so you can frame it on your wall. It will be a keeper.

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Annapolis, Md.: Do you like English Channel's chances off his last close effort vs. Shakespeare?

Liam Durbin: The margin of victory was small, but more than a small amount separates these two. English Channel ran big that day for second. Shakespeare got it done in a relatively routine fashion. The Turf sets up well for Shakespeare. I'm not completely discounting EC, he could do it.

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Arlington, Va.: How did you get into handicapping?

Liam Durbin: When I was about 14 years old, I started going to the track with my Dad in the summer, at Ellis Park in Henderson, KY. He taught me a lot, and some I just figured out on my own. I added the computer twist to it about ten years ago. I still enjoy it tremendously, in particular the big days like BC and KY Derby.

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Big apple: Hi..love your Web site ... How about giving us some longshots so we can make some money on Saturday?

washingtonpost.com: e-ponies.com

Liam Durbin: Ok, I knew that one was coming. Here's a couple.... Ex Caelis, Dawn of War, Host, Perfect Drift. No guarantees.. Overall look for value in the Juvenile races, and the Filly and Mare Turf.

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Pittsburgh, Pa: In your opinion what is the best way to bet $20 a race, exacta, tri's or lean towards the Pick 3's and 4's?

Liam Durbin: I enjoy the pick threes. On days like BC, they can pay like monsters. If you can't handle going home without cashing a ticket, go with exactas. If you can handle losing $1500 when your horse in the third leg of the pick three loses by a nose, go with the E-ticket ride... the pick 3s, 4s and 6s.

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Embassy Row: Hey I have tix to the Breeders Cup on Saturday and was wondering about betting strategies. Would the Pick 6 or Pick 4 be good ways to approach these races? If so, what would be your key horses and possible surprises that one should consider in a multi-race ticket?

Thanks!

Liam Durbin: Yes, bet the pick six and the pick four. On days like BC day, the pools are huge. I believe you have to take a stand and single a couple of horses unless you have very deep pockets. In the P6, I would single the following horses: Lost in the Fog, Leroidesanimaux, and possibly Ashado. In the pick four, if you can afford to have two horses in each leg, do so. BC day produces lots of fun upsets and big payoffs.

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Buffalo, N.Y.: I would have liked to see George Washington come over for the Juvenile. Have the people at Ballydoyle given up on the Derby since their failure with Johannesburg.

Also, why no mile on the dirt? I would love to see Lost in the Fog at a mile.

Liam Durbin: I hope not. But to be honest, I would think that if there were a location for the European's to think they can dominate, it would be at Belmont. Lots of excuses for them in the heat of California or Texas, but NY is a lot like home. Not sure why there is no dirt mile. I think he will look pretty darn good going six furlongs too.

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Oakton, Va.: JUVENILE FILLIES ... what should I look for to find a 2-year-old filly that can go the distance. It is unique in that it is a one turn 1 11/16 race. Will it shape up for a one late move winner or a stalker or can an early speedster steal it?

Liam Durbin: Look for horses winning by large margins, even when asked to go farther than before. I know that sounds obvious, but there are a couple in here that fit the bill. Specifically Adieu and Folklore have shown no problem when stretching out. Look for horses that have found trouble or raced greenly, but still finished strong. With each race, they get a little smarter. I'm looking for a stalker because this Juv Fillies is not stacked with speed.

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Cheshire, Conn.: The classic looks like there's very little pace in it and suave has never won at the distance -- Could a horse like Suave get an early lead and steal it on the front end?

Liam Durbin: Not likely. I don't think he has the class to carry the speed that far, even if left alone on the lead. Of course I could be wrong. Saint Liam should be close up as well. And some other long shot will definitely contest the pace. I'm not expecting a hot pace, as you suggested as well, but whoever goes to the front should see some company.

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Reston, Va.: What's your opinion on the Juvenille race, does Leo have a chance or is it between FS and Henny?

Liam Durbin: This race is pretty open, but I wouldn't be looking at Leo. Hey, when I did one of these before the Derby, someone specifically asked me about Giacomo. I said he didn't have much of a chance. I stand by that comment, but you know, anything can happen. First Samurai looks very tough, but this will be the best test of his short career. Nothing is certain. He will likely go off as an underlay at 6:5.

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EAST WENATCHEE, Wash.: Who are St. Liams on the rise competitors??

Liam Durbin: Borrego and Rock Hard Ten. Both are really coming of age.

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Baltimore, Md.: Thanks for the chat Liam. With all the large fields of quality horses riding at Belmont, what horse and their respective Post Position causes you the most concern?

Liam Durbin: Henny Hughes strung out wide, Saint Liam with the same problem. That's about it. I am not a big believer in PP being a huge factor. The best horse usually wins.

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Bethesda, Md. : Who does your e-ponies computer pick in the Turf races?

Liam Durbin: Ouija Board, Leroidesanimaux, Bago

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EAST WENATCHEE, Wash.: Who will win the Juvenile Fillies??

Liam Durbin: Folk Lore looks the best, but this race is wide open. The Juv Fillies has produces some bombs before. No one is a lock in this one.

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e-ponies is great: Bailly's swan song ... which mounts can he win on?

Liam Durbin: Thanks! I appreciate you saying so.

I'd say his best shot is on First Samurai and Shakespeare. I hope he rides my namesake well in the Classic. Saint Liam will need all the help he can get.

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Montville, N.J.: What long shot has a realistic chance to win?

Liam Durbin: Like I mentioned above, it may not be as much about finding your favorite longshot and deciding if he can win as it is about finding the race that looks like a mess on form, and then finding the longshot who will emerge from it. I think the juvenile races should be given a close look for some sleepers, as well as the F&M Turf. Sorcerer's Stone in the Juvenile looks interesting...

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Oakton: WORKOUTS ... do you think workouts are critical? Any bullets that stand out?

Liam Durbin: I don't really pay a lot of attention to workouts unless the horse is coming off a layoff and I'm trying to decide if he/she is ready to race again. The problem with workouts is that each trainer has different styles. Some press their horses harder than others, so while it may reveal some horses who are training well, it may not show you other horses that are just as ready, but their trainers don't burn them up in the wee hours of the morning.

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Baltimore, Md.: Can any European invaders win any of these races?

Liam Durbin: The European horses are hard to handicap for most of us on this side of the ocean because the information in the racing form is so limited. This year should be a good year for the Europeans, because Belmont is relatively similar to weather conditions in Europe this time of year. Look for horses that have consistently hit the board overseas, and against big fields. It is very hard to gage pace though. Especially for my computer.

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Washington, D.C.: I read Andy Beyer's column about maybe two trainers still cheating around the new NYRA detention barns, what do you think about that, and will the extra security produce chalky results?

Liam Durbin: No. I don't expect it to affect the results materially. I'm not disputing Mr. Beyer's comments, I just don't believe that the advantage gained is so large that once it goes away the results become chalk. The randomness usually seen at the BC races is because of the very, very high quality of horses here. I expect to see plenty of wild rides on Saturday.

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Arlington, Va.: So who are you betting on?

Liam Durbin: I'm going to pick a couple of races that I really like and load up on them. The rest I'll just have some fun money on. I'll have to put some money on Saint Liam. And if I ever run in a race I hope he will have some money on me.

I'll be doing the rolling Daily Doubles too. On BC days, those are a good bet because hitting three in a row is really dicey and the payoff for hitting two in a row is so good.

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Hartford, Conn.: I believe the post position worries for St. Liam in the Classic are overblown, since there is little speed inside him and he can secure a stalking position without much trouble.

My question is how your program approaches the turf races, since the deluge in the Northeast has created course conditions that none of the American horses have raced on, and possibly the Euros as well.

Liam Durbin: Fair enough on Saint Liam's post position, but it is energy expended early on that he would otherwise not have needed to expend if he were in the seven hole. This is a big, wide track so he will have room. But it is just plain farther and he will have to hurry to get in position.

My program can't consider the effects of deluges. I'll have to add that judgement in after the computer is done doing its thing. I agree that it could change things.

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Baltimore, Md.: Is Megahertz a throwout since the turf will be soft and she likes it firm?

Liam Durbin: I don't think so. She ran second in the Beverly D over a yielding course. I like her.

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Liam Durbin: Still time for more. Please send your questions if you have them!

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classic: Who do you like in the Classic? why?

Liam Durbin: I have narrowed it down to Rock Hard Ten and Saint Liam. I have never been a big fan of RHT, but he is really finally running the way he looked capable of as a three year old. His imposing size had always been hyped as a three year old, but his running style was not all that smooth. I think he may have finally put it all together. Saint Liam will need a favorable pace scenario.

While I'm at it, the pace is everything in this year's Classic, much more so than in previous years. It is worth the effort to imagine the race unfolding in your mind, with who will lead early, what fractions, etc. Don't fall in love with one horse and find a way to bet him. Figure out who the pace favors first.

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Kingston, Jamaica: Why isn't Rock Hard Ten the favourite?

Liam Durbin: I think he will be by post time. The odds maker's job is to predict the opinion of the betting public. So the guys at Belmont Park believe that Saint Liam will go off the favorite over RHT. I disagree, but we will see. It should be pretty close. Borrego will get some betting too.

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Fairfax, Va.: What do you think of Valixir's chances?

Liam Durbin: Are you the same guy who asked me about Giacomo's chances in the Derby?

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Arlington, Va.: What about Starcraft -- did they make a mistake entering him in the Classic?

Liam Durbin: If he wins, no, it will have been a wise choice. If he loses, yes, dumb move.

Seriously, I just don't question these decisions made by the handlers. The owners have so much to lose financially by making the wrong decision. And the trainers want to win too. So I have to believe that they think that the horse has a decent chance to win the Classic. My computer likes him pretty well. He would face tough pressure in either race.

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Pittsburgh, Pa.: I know you love LITF but there's no chance that PVAL guns Attila's Storm to the lead and burns off The Fog so to speak and Silver Train or Taste of Paradise pick up the pieces?

Liam Durbin: That was the plan in the Riva Ridge! He had to go six furlongs in 1:08:3 and still go another furlong! The plan worked beautifully, Fog went after the rabbit and gave chase. Except for the part about Fog giving it up to Egghead. That part didn't materialize. Fog showed heart that day that he had never been asked to show before. I think the field in the Sprint is weaker than what he saw in the Riva Ridge. Buy your ticket, get in line. Keep one as a memento.

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Phoenix, Ariz.: Leroidesanimaux appears to be an intimidating favorite. Is he this year's Ghostzapper for Bobby Frankel and will simply control the Turf Mile? Or does someone else stand a shot at all?

Liam Durbin: It is his race to lose. This race has generated some bombs though. The big field mixes things up.

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New Haven, Conn.: Speaking of the Bev D-Along the Same line as Megahertz-Do you believe Angara has a shot-despite her form be off lately? Is she overraced?

Liam Durbin: Well, she wasn't exactly the favorite in the Bev D. so not that many people were left scratching their heads after the dull effort. Sure she has some great races under her belt, but I'm not looking for a return to form that puts her above some of these.

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Fairfax, Va.: Does Oratorio have a shot to upend St Liam and Rock Hard Ten in the Classic?

Liam Durbin: It is so hard to say without any races in the states. I think he is the best of the European horses running on dirt. The Classic is pretty wide open if you can get past the three favorites (St. Liam, Rock, Borrego).

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Phoenix, Ariz.: With Shake the Bank making the Turf, is setting the pace going to help Better Talk Now defend his title? Or does it look like Bago is the class and the rabbit won't matter?

Liam Durbin: I think it won't matter. I really like Better Talk Now, always have. But I don't see the results being largely altered by the pace scenario. It is a factor, of course, but not the biggest factor.

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E.WENATCHEE, Wash.: Who will win the Mile??

Liam Durbin: Leroidesanimaux looks really tough. His running style will make him hard to beat in this one. In other words, he is near enough to the pace to not let it get stolen on him, but he has a class-proving late kick to fend off the deep closers. I think it is his race to lose.

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EAST WENATCHEE, Wash.: Do you like Forty Niners Son??

Liam Durbin: No. I think he is in the second tier of horses in this race. In other words, wouldn't be shocked to see him win, but there is nothing on form that makes me want to displace one of the more obvious contenders.

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Liam Durbin: Thanks for all your questions. I hope I answered them all thoroughly. The ultimate test will be Saturday! Good luck at the races!

Liam

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